January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[Brian5671]

36 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

We might get above freezing next week! Time to break out the shorts and tshirts!

Streak could be ruined by 1 degree

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Streak could be ruined by 1 degree

We've gone this far to see one 33 or 34 degree day next week would actually suck.

[Stormlover74]

Made it to 20 woohoo

[lee59]

If the wind dies down tonight could be some well below zero temperatures in the coldest locations.

[psv88]

19.5 today...counts as a 20

[LoboLeader1]

Currently 15 here in HPN, reached 18 earlier this afternoon. 

[MANDA]

High here today was 14.  The cold spot in NJ today was High Point with a high temperature of 8.

Lowest temp of the season here to date is 1.  It is currently 11.  Clear skies and light winds should get me to at least 1 and perhaps the first zero or a touch below by tomorrow morning.

[donsutherland1]

The January 24-30 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest one week period since January 1-7, 2018 when the one-week average temperature was 16.4°. In addition, New York City saw its second single digit low of this winter. That's the most such days since Winter 2022-2023 when there were three such days. Today's high temperature was 18°. That is the second high temperature below 20° this winter. The last time that happened was Winter 2018-2019. 

The temperature will again fall into the single digits tomorrow morning. The high temperature will rise into the upper teens or lower 20s. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week.

A passing flurry is possible on Sunday. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England could see some light snow as parts of the region are brushed by a blizzard that will bring heavy snow and high winds to the Southeast. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +11.22 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.616 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[Wannabehippie]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The January 24-30 period has had a mean temperature of 16.9°. That is the coldest one week period since January 1-7, 2018 when the one-week average temperature was 16.4°. In addition, New York City saw its second single digit low of this winter. That's the most such days since Winter 2022-2023 when there were three such days. Today's high temperature was 18°. That is the second high temperature below 20° this winter. The last time that happened was Winter 2018-2019. 

The temperature will again fall into the single digits tomorrow morning. The high temperature will rise into the upper teens or lower 20s. 

Temperatures should begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week and could briefly rise to or above freezing. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week.

A passing flurry is possible on Sunday. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England could see some light snow as parts of the region are brushed by a blizzard that will bring heavy snow and high winds to the Southeast. 

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +11.22 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -3.616 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.3° (3.4° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.3° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

How will the current, and predicted MJO phases factor in to short and medium term predictions?

[donsutherland1]

Just now, Wannabehippie said:

How will the current, and predicted MJO phases factor in to short and medium term predictions?

My guess is that it will increase the likelihood that the next 1-2 weeks see generally colder than normal temperatures.