January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[IrishRob17]

30 minutes ago, snywx said:

U were 14f colder! 
 

6 for a low here 

Perfect conditions for it. You'll see in the NW thread I post a screenshot that includes Legoland, 7 miles away as the crow flies, almost 19 degree difference. I thought I might have beat KMGJ for once but they got to -9 in between hours. When I was at -8 KMGJ was around 0. Cool stuff, only 2 miles away.  

[Freezing Drizzle]

www.njweather.org/maps/mapviewer?mapname=temperature

Impressive low temperatures as of 7:15 am in the area around Sussex County. That -37 F in Hackettstown must be an error.

[jm1220]

Got down to 11 here. Fri night I think has a chance to get down to 0 (not in the city). 

[EastonSN+]

Lake Erie is about 95% ice covered.

[bluewave]

Very nice snow extent comeback for North America.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/snow/HTML/snow_extent_monitor.html

 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

The RNA would be helpful here j would think. Don mentioned that as we go through February and RNA is actually beneficial.

[bluewave]

Interesting stat from Brian B.

 

 

Climatologist49

 

‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬

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Newark Int Airport reported Heavy Snow and a temperature of 11F. This is the lowest temperature on record for them (1930-present) where they reported Heavy Snow. Previous record was 12F in 1932 and again in 2014.

 

12:23 PM · Jan 25, 2026

Everybody can

[SnoSki14]

20 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The RNA would be helpful here j would think. Don mentioned that as we go through February and RNA is actually beneficial.

I think 1st half is cold/dry though def not snow free but second half gets a lot more active with that blocking pattern + RNA

[snywx]

56 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Perfect conditions for it. You'll see in the NW thread I post a screenshot that includes Legoland, 7 miles away as the crow flies, almost 19 degree difference. I thought I might have beat KMGJ for once but they got to -9 in between hours. When I was at -8 KMGJ was around 0. Cool stuff, only 2 miles away.  

I encountered ice fog last night driving through Florida/warwick area. Current temp at the time was 9. It came out of no where & couldn’t see more than 2 feet in front of me. Impressive 

[Rjay]

6 hours ago, TriPol said:

Stick a fork in it? 

Nope

[Picard]

Low of 2 in Sparta.
Lots of variability in the lows.  
Walpack bottomed out at -17!  They might do better than that in the next couple of nights.

[bluewave]

Great video of the ice flows in the Hudson River.

 

 

[donsutherland1]

49 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The RNA would be helpful here j would think. Don mentioned that as we go through February and RNA is actually beneficial.

Yes, during the second half of February, PNA- is better for significant or major snowfalls due to the shortening of wave lengths. 

[EastonSN+]

5 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Yes, during the second half of February, PNA- is better for significant or major snowfalls due to the shortening of wave lengths. 

Thanks Don! With the apparent blocking and the +PNA duration this may line up perfectly.

[MANDA]

1 hour ago, Picard said:

Low of 2 in Sparta.
Lots of variability in the lows.  
Walpack bottomed out at -17!  They might do better than that in the next couple of nights.

Low of 4 here.  I was going to post about the -17 in Walpack and I agree they could sink lower than that before the worst of the cold peaks.

[Picard]

14 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Low of 4 here.  I was going to post about the -17 in Walpack and I agree they could sink lower than that before the worst of the cold peaks.

A fun experiment to do on nights like these is take a temperature sensor and stick it right on the surface of the snow in an open area that radiates well.  Even an older style mercury thermometer works.  The air temp at standard height could be 0 degrees, and the surface of the snow might be -10 or lower.   That explains why our dog is having so much trouble walking outside with the cold snow surface.  We got her snow socks, which of course, she won't wear and slinks away when we try to put them on.   Go figure.

[Freezing Drizzle]

31 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Low of 4 here.  I was going to post about the -17 in Walpack and I agree they could sink lower than that before the worst of the cold peaks.

Daily minimum seems to have been -17 F.  That is one cold spot.

[Freezing Drizzle]

2 hours ago, Picard said:

A fun experiment to do on nights like these is take a temperature sensor and stick it right on the surface of the snow in an open area that radiates well.  Even an older style mercury thermometer works.  The air temp at standard height could be 0 degrees, and the surface of the snow might be -10 or lower.   That explains why our dog is having so much trouble walking outside with the cold snow surface.  We got her snow socks, which of course, she won't wear and slinks away when we try to put them on.   Go figure.

Another fun experiment is to throw a cup of boiling water into dry, frigid air. An amazing physical effect occurs. 
It turns into a fog of "snow," bypassing the solid state of water (ice).

[psv88]

12 this morning.

ill be in Florida in mid February…can’t come soon enough 

[bluewave]

One of the biggest temperature swings coming up for Florida. West Palm Beach just set their new all-time January high temperature of 90°. Current model forecasts have them potentially getting their first freeze this weekend since 2010. 
 

Southeast Florida...
   West Palm Beach
   Ptcldy   Sunny    Mocldy   Ptcldy   Sunny    Sunny    Sunny
     /67    47/69    56/71    55/68    33/54    34/59    41/66
      /20    10/00    00/10    20/30    20/00    00/00    00/00

Time Series Summary for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Month of Jan Maximum Monthly Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2026	90	4
2	1942	89	0
3	2020	88	0
-	1926	88	2

 

Time Series Summary for West Palm Beach Area, FL (ThreadEx) - Dec through Feb Lowest Minimum Temperature
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	1894-1895	24	0
2	1904-1905	26	0
3	1976-1977	27	0
4	1989-1990	28	0
-	1984-1985	28	0
-	1920-1921	28	5
-	1916-1917	28	0
-	1898-1899	28	0
5	1981-1982	29	0
-	1969-1970	29	0
-	1917-1918	29	0
6	1983-1984	30	0
-	1970-1971	30	0
-	1962-1963	30	0
-	1906-1907	30	0
7	1985-1986	31	0
-	1957-1958	31	0
-	1955-1956	31	0
-	1934-1935	31	0
-	1927-1928	31	0
-	1921-1922	31	0
-	1909-1910	31	0
-	1897-1898	31	0
8	2010-2011	32	0
-	2009-2010	32	0
-	1988-1989	32	0
-	1980-1981	32	0
-	1977-1978	32	0
-	1965-1966	32	0
-	1964-1965	32	0
-	1947-1948	32	0

[Roger Smith]

That -37 on the NJ map is probably two nearby locations with lows of -3 and +7. 

[jm1220]

4 hours ago, psv88 said:

12 this morning.

ill be in Florida in mid February…can’t come soon enough 

Italy was amazing. The snow is great of course but this cold hits when you get used to 60s. 

[MANDA]

Pretty expansive snow cover.  Lake Erie is essentially almost all frozen over.  Lake Huron is building some ice cover.  Been a while since we've seen such expansive snow cover east of the Rockies.

North and even South Carolina will pickup some solid snow depth over the weekend to fill in the map even more.

[Brian5671]

midsection of the country went from early spring to deep winter in the space of 7-10 day

[donsutherland1]

Arctic air now covers the region. Highs will be mainly in the lower 20s through Saturday. One or more days could see highs in the teens. The last winter with more than one high in the teens was Winter 2018-19 when there were two such days. 

Moreover, New York City has the potential to see the temperature dip into the single digits for lows on one or more days during this period. The last winter with more than one such day was Winter 2022-23 when there were three such days. Some snow flurries or snow showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning. Tempweratures shouold begin to moderate on Sunday into early next week. Nevertheless, readings are likely to remain below normal into at least the start of next week.

Additional snow is possible on Sunday if a developing storm passes close enough to the coast. Eastern Long Island into southeastern New England would have the greatest chance of seeing an appreciable or greater snowfall. There remains significant uncertainty about the location of the storm's development and its track. 

A large storm would be historic. For reference, New York City has seen just one 10" or above snowstorm one week or less following a 10" or above snowstorm: February 3-4, 1926 (10.4") and February 9-10, 1926 (12.4"). The shortest interval between 10" or above daily snowfalls is 14 days: March 2, 1896 (10.0") and March 16, 1896 (12.0"). Records go back to 1869.

Overall, January 20th-February 3rd will likely be the coldest and perhaps snowiest two-week period this winter. The forecast WPO-/EPO-/AO-/PNA+ pattern is typically the coldest pattern in January and among the coldest during the first half of February. A persistently positive PNA will have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. 

For perspective, the coldest two-week period this winter prior to January 20th was January 3-16, 2026 and January 4-17, 2026 with a mean temperature of 30.3°. The snowiest two-week period was December 14-27, 2025 when 7.2" of snow fell. Already, snowfall since January 20th has surpassed that figure.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.3°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around January 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.48°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.68°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +6.84 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -4.873 today. That is the lowest figure since February 15, 2025 when the AO was -5.278.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 30.2° (3.5° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 2.4° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[EasternLI]

Man, IDK. The more I look things over, the more I get the feeling winter is far from done with us and could be very far. Guidance is indicating a big time -AO developing at 500mb moving forward. My guess is some MJO influence in doing that. Meanwhile, here comes some real potential of a major strat PV disruption with the AO already negative. We're accustomed to a lag time of several weeks for the strat to affect the AO if at all. However, under these particular circumstances there is a possibility of basically zero lag time to see effects. If you split the vortex with an already -AO you could instead see it quickly coupling all the way through the column. Effectively prolonging and amplifying the already -AO in place, starting almost immediately. Its a possibility to do something like that this year... 

[SACRUS]

23 / 9 split with the coldest of the season coming Thu - Sat.   Overall cold and we'll see if we crack the freezing mark Tue-Wed-Thu next week before next dose of arctic air. 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 74 (1950) *monthly Jan high
NYC: 72(1950)  * tied monthly Jan high Jan 6 (07)
LGA: 72 (1950)
JFK: 69 (1950)


Lows:

EWR: 4 (1994)
NYC: 2 (1871)
LGA: 5 (1994)
JFK: 9 (2007)

 

Historical:

 

1700 - A powerful earthquake struck the Pacific Northwest along the Cascadia Subduction zone. The estimated moment magnitude of 8.7-9.2 caused about a 1,000-kilometer rupture from mid-Vancouver Island to northern California. The ocean floor heaved upward approximately 20 feet, and with 10-20 minutes, a giant wave, 30-40 feet high, reached the shore. The earthquake caused a tsunami, which struck the coast of Japan.

1772 - Possibly the greatest snowfall ever recorded in the Washington DC area started on this day. When the storm began, Thomas Jefferson was returning home from his honeymoon with his new bride, Martha Wayles Skelton. The newlyweds made it to within eight miles of Monticello before having to abandon their carriage in the deep snow. Both finished the ride on horseback in the blinding snow. The newlyweds arrived home late on the night of January 26th. In Jefferson's "Garden Book," he wrote, "the deepest snow we have ever seen. In Albermarle, it was about 3. F. deep."

1868: The Columbia River froze in Oregon. Pedestrian traffic and sleighs were able to cross from Vancouver to Portland on the frozen river. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1887: Fort Keough, Montana: Snowflakes "as large as milk pans" fell across areas of Montana. The biggest snowflake, reportedly measured 38 cm (15 inches) by 20 cm (8 inches). (Ref. Wx.Doctor) (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)
Ref. More Information on the Possibility of Snowflakes Being This Large

1922: WASHINGTON'S GREATEST SNOW STORM 28 INCHES The "Knickerbocker" storm immobilized the city of Washington, DC. The storm produced 28 inches of snow in 32 hours, and the heavy snow caused the roof of the Knickerbocker movie theater to collapse killing 96 persons. (David Ludlum)

1922: January 27-28th " 1922 Snowstorm - The "Knickerbocker Storm" Exactly 150 years after the "Washington and Jefferson Storm" which dropped 3 feet of snow on the region came, the deepest snow of this century to the greater Washington and Baltimore region. The snow came on the heels of a cold spell. High temperatures did not climb above freezing from the 24 through the 28th and the low temperature dipped to 11°F on the 26th. Snow began at 4:30 p.m. on the 27th and continued until just past midnight on the morning of the 29th. A record 21 inches fell in a 24-hour period on the 28th. The heavy band of snow stretched across Richmond (19 inches), Washington, DC (28 inches), and Baltimore (25 inches) immobilizing the region. Strong north to northeast winds accompanied the storm drifting snow into deep banks. Roads were blocked. Main highways were the first to open in 2 to 4 days. On the evening of the 28th, the weight of the snow became too much for the Knickerbocker Theater on 18th Street and Columbia in Northwest Washington, DC. The horrible scene was described in the Washington Post on January 29th and 30th and was reprinted in the Post on January 19, 1996 following another big snow. They described it as "the greatest disaster in Washington's History". The theater was cramped with an estimated 900 moviegoers. The roof of the theater collapsed taking the balcony down with it and crushing 98 people below to death and injuring another 158. People were pulled from the rubble for hours and bodies were pulled out for days. A small boy squeezed into small holes and between crumbled cement slabs to give those injured and trapped pain pills. From this disaster, the storm is known historically as the "Knickerbocker Storm" (David Ludlum, p. 10)

1925: New Hampshire's coldest temperature ever was recorded as Pittsburg dropped to -46°. This record was broken on 1/31/1934. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1927: The barometer reading on this date at DCA was 31.01 inches and was the record high pressure for Washington until Feb. 13,1981.(Washington Weather Records - KDCA)


1935: January 28, 1935 after the snowstorm of the 23rd a long period of cold set in and the temperature plunged to a low of two below zero in Washington. Washington would not experience another subzero temperature reading for another 48 years that is not until January 1982. (p. 60 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)

1937: The wettest month ever in Cincinnati, Ohio, is January 1937, when 13.68 inches fell. Their average January amount is 3.00 inches of precipitation. The overabundance of precipitation over the Ohio River basin caused near-record to record flooding in Ohio, Indiana, Illinois, and Kentucky. On this day, the river gauge reached 80 feet in Cincinnati, the highest level in the city's history. The Ohio River reached 57 feet in Louisville, Kentucky, on the 27th, setting a new record by ten feet. Seventy percent of the city was underwater at that time. 

1940: Amazing photographs showed thick ice on the Mississippi River at the unlikeliest of locations; Vicksburg, MS as the Deep South was in the throes of an intense cold wave. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1948: An ice Storm from Arkansas to South Carolina caused $20 million dollars damage and resulted in 30 fatalities. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1951: The worst ice storm in U.S. History struck from Texas to West Virginia through February 1st, causing $100 million in damage and 25 fatalities. Tennessee was one of the hardest-hit states, with roads remaining impassable up to 10 days after the event. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1963: The low of -34 degrees at Cynthiana, KY equaled the state record established just four days earlier at Bonnieville. (The Weather Channel)

1977: At Minneapolis the wind-chill temperature dropped to -78°F on the morning of January 28, perhaps the lowest on record in that city. The blizzard of January 1977, in and around Buffalo, New York, was so severe that winds up to 73 mph broke windows in homes, which were then quickly filled with blowing and drifting snow. (Extreme Weather p. 66, by Christopher C. Burt)
The twelve inches of snow that fell in three days at Buffalo, NY would not have been big news in a city used to big snows. The Great Buffalo Blizzard started like many other snow squalls from Lake Erie, but during this storm, strong northwest winds lifted up the snow piled on frozen Lake Erie and blasted the city with it. People were trapped wherever they were, in their cars, homes, or offices. 9 people froze to death in their stranded automobiles. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) (Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Information

1978 - A paralyzing blizzard struck the Midwest. One to three feet of snow fell in Michigan, and 20 to 40 inches was reported across Indiana. Winds reached 70 mph in Michigan, and gusted above 100 mph in Ohio. The high winds produced snow drifts twenty feet high in Michigan and Indiana stranding thousands on the interstate highways. Temperatures in Ohio dropped from the 40s to near zero during the storm. (David Ludlum)

1983 - The California coast was battered by a storm which produced record high tides, thirty-two foot waves, and mudslides, causing millions of dollars damage. The storm then moved east and dumped four feet of snow on Lake Tahoe. (22nd-29th) (The Weather Channel)

1986: The Space Shuttle Challenger exploded at 11:39am EST; 73 seconds after liftoff from the Kennedy Space Center at Cape Canaveral, FL on an extremely cold morning. Starting in the 20’s, the ground temperature at liftoff was 36°. Morton Thiokol recommended not launching if the liftoff temperature was below 53°. The cold was blamed for causing the O-rings on the Shuttle's external booster to fail, leading to the explosion. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1987 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast States, with 18 inches reported at Vineland NJ, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Chatham MA. Snow cover in Virginia ranged up to thirty inches following this second major storm in just one week. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A snowstorm in the northeastern U.S. produced 19 inches at Austerlitz NY and Stillwater NY. A storm in the Great Lakes Region left 16.5 inches at Marquette MI, for a total of 43 inches in six days. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Snow and high winds created blizzard-like conditions in northwestern Vermont. Winds at Saint Albins gusted to 88 mph. In Alaska, the town of Cold Foot (located north of Fairbanks) reported a morning low of 75 degrees below zero. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - A winter storm spread high winds from the northwestern U.S. to Wyoming and Colorado, with heavy snow in some of the high elevations. Stevens Pass WA received 17 inches of snow, half of which fell in four hours. In extreme northwest Wyoming, Togwotee Mountain Lodge received 24 inches of snow. Winds in Colorado gusted to 90 mph at Rollinsville. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1998: Annandale Barcroft Hills Weather Station recorded 2.20 inches rain in 24 hrs. from 27th to 28th. (Annandale Weather Records)
January 27th - 28th - - - Back-to-Back "Nor'easters" pounded the Tidewater area and produced coastal flooding. ides remained higher than normal from astronomical high tides and the January 27-28 "Nor'easter". Most areas that saw 2 to 4 inches with the January 27-28 storm again saw it with the February storm. Some locations received as much as 7.5 inches of rain. The rain resulted in flooding on small streams and creeks closing numerous roads. The floodwaters eventually flowed into the main stem of the rivers, which reached bank full or minor flood levels. A woman died in Culpeper after driving her car into floodwaters.
(Ref. Virginia Wx. History)
Then came the February "Nor'easter". Its slow movement and gale force winds pushed the tide to 7.0 feet above Mean Lower Low Water at Norfolk, which resulted in moderate to severe flooding. The entire town of Chincoteague on the Eastern Shore was under water. Willoughby Spit was the hardest hit area in Norfolk and homes in Sandbridge and Chick's Beach were severely damaged in Virginia Beach. Inland, heavy rains fell. In the western part of the state, some high elevation counties saw one to two feet of snow in the January 27-28 storm. Thundersnow fell in Dickerson and Buchanan Counties were some people described the huge size of the snowflakes as being more like snowballs falling. Some trees and power lines came down. Power was out to 99% of Dickerson County residents. When the next storm on February 3rd began snowing, over 1000 customers were still without power. A charter bus on Interstate-81 overturned injuring 20 people. One man in Tazewell County died as a result of rescue services not being able to reach him fast enough with the heavy snow and downed trees and power lines. With the February storm came more snow and then ice. In the Allegheny Highlands, a foot or more of snow fell and winds drifted it in some areas up to 6 feet closing roads. Areas east of the highlands saw 4 to 8 inches before the snow changed to freezing rain. A man died of a heart attack shoveling g snow in Harrisonburg. Some areas got significant ice on top of the snow, causing trees to come down and, in one case, a roof to collapse. Heavy ice accumulated in the mountains with as much as 5 inches in some spots. This did incredible damage to trees. Shenandoah National Park was closed for a week while trees where removed from Skyline Drive. Thousands of trees fell and work continued into April. Damage in the park alone was $607,000.
Ref. - Virginia Weather History
(Ref. Wilson Wx. Additional Information)

2004: On this date through the 31st, a 3-day snowstorm dumped 86 inches of snow at Parish, NY located about 25 miles north of Syracuse. The temperature plummeted to -49° at Saskatoon, Saskatchewan Canada, their coldest reading in 33 years. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2008: Montana: Rapid temperature drops occur across Montana as a cold front races through. The greatest drop is experienced at Cut Bank, MT, approximately 50 miles east of Glacier National Park, where the temperature falls from 40° F at 2 PM MST on Sunday to -14° F in the following 12 hours. By sunrise, the temperature had fallen to -20° F, representing a drop of 60 Fahrenheit degrees in 17 hours.(Ref. Wx.Doctor)

2010: Dreadful ice storm in SW OK coated exposed surfaces with ice to 1.5” thick. In Greer County, 'miles' of power lines down; almost every tree (in a county with not many trees) has “some kind of damage” with many “snapped or downed.” 180,000+ OK customers lost power (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA)

 

2011: NYC: Jan 26 - 27, 2011  : 19 inches of snowfall

 

2015:  NYC :Jan 26 , 2015 : 9.8 inches of snowfall