January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[North and West]

Yes me too. It's going to happen the day after Sydney Sweeney knocks on my door and says she wants to have a threesome with me and my wife.
If I had  to choose though I'd take the 36 inches in 36 hours. 

.

[wishcast_hater]

12 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yes me too. It's going to happen the day after Sydney Sweeney knocks on my door and says she wants to have a threesome with me and my wife.

If I had  to choose though I'd take the 36 inches in 36 hours. 

Well, its either 36 hours or 36 seconds. 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The signal for a PNA+ (a rarity since December 1) has grown stronger on the GEFS. Should a PNA+ develop and then be sustained, opportunities for moderate or larger snowfalls would increase, especially around or after mid-month.

[Brian5671]

torching here today-feels tropical after the cold-made it to 47

[gravitylover]

It's too bright out there. Bring back the clouds! 

[MANDA]

9 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

It's too bright out there. Bring back the clouds! 

Been socked in here since late morning.  I want more sun!

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

It topped out at 40.1 today. Snow cover still intact but did take a hit. From the forecast I'd give it until Saturday and I'll probably have to call the latest streak over.

[winterwx21]

It hit 52 here. Nice to have some warmer weather. 

[weatherpruf]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Yes me too. It's going to happen the day after Sydney Sweeney knocks on my door and says she wants to have a threesome with me and my wife.

If I had  to choose though I'd take the 36 inches in 36 hours. 

what makes you think your wife would approve? 

[Wannabehippie]

9 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

huge storm potential

It is gone on the 18z.

 

[SHELEG]

11 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

It is gone on the 18z.

 

The potential is still there better then the 12z

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

It is gone on the 18z.

 

We know the drill with the gfs.

[NEG NAO]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We know the drill with the gfs.

especially at 9 days out

[SnoSki14]

PNA spike is huge but it needs to be sustained. Pacific jet still keeps knocking it down too quickly. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

PNA spike is huge but it needs to be sustained. Pacific jet still keeps knocking it down too quickly. 

if we're going to see anything next week, we should start seeing the models pivot towards some crazy good solutions starting tonight otherwise it's pretty much done in my book!

[Roger Smith]

Well, probably two-thirds or more of the big snow and cold events of past winters have been beyond the reliable model range (from 20 Jan onward) so it's crazy to write off any winter this early. I believe there will be some very active weather patterns around the end of January as energy levels begin to ramp up then. Whatever sort of pattern exists in late January will undergo amplification then, best bet being a large trough just west of this region so it could be quite volatile then. 

[donsutherland1]

A milder pattern is now in place. The remainder of the week will see generally above normal temperatures.

Some rain is likely Saturday into Sunday. Rainfall amounts will generally be between 0.50"-1.00". The week will conclude with highs finishing in the 50s across much of the region on Friday and Saturday. Cooler air will likely return Sunday or Monday. No significant Arctic blasts or significant snowfalls are likely through at least mid-January.

Afterward, conditions might become more favorable for both cold and snowfall, especially if the PNA goes positive. PNA-related developments would have larger implications for snowfall. A persistently positive PNA would have above climatological risk of moderate or significant snowfalls. A mainly negative PNA would favor mainly small snowfalls. It will likely be a few more days before the guidance reaches the high-skill timeframe for teleconnection forecasts. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around December 31. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.37°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.63°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue into at least late winter.

The SOI was +2.31 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.377 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 50% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 33.7° (at normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 1.1° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

[MJO812]

Cmc and gfs show a coastal 

[NEG NAO]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc and gfs show a coastal 

0Z Euro Op only shows a storm coming up the coast missing to the east during about same time periods - have to get within 5 - 7 days to begin to take any of these solutions seriously - although this far out would not want to be in the bullseye yet IMO

[bluewave]

You would want to see the Northern Stream across the Great Lakes with all those lows racing east back off in order to give the Southern Stream an opportunity to lead. 

[lee59]

Heat Island and radiational cooling in full affect this morning, Manhattan mid 40s and upper 20s and low 30s here.

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Heat Island and radiational cooling in full affect this morning, Manhattan mid 40s and upper 20s and low 30s here.

26 here, 41-42 on the barrier islands. 

[SACRUS]

44 / 35 clearing.  Warm today Upper 40s to low / mid 50s in the warmest spots and the warmest since Dec 19th for many.  Clouds back Friday with rain later Saturday .75 to an inch later evening into the overnight.  Continues above normal through the 14th as WC ridge builds pushing trough into Midwest / east later next week.  Period to watch for storminess is 1/15  - 1/19 - track the key.  Beyond there near normal / slightly below.

 

[SACRUS]

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 70 (1998)
NYC: 65 (1998)
LGA: 64 (2008)
JFK: 58 (1949)


Lows:

EWR: 3 (1970)
NYC: 2 (1968)
LGA: 3 (1968)
JFK: 1 (1968)

Historical:

1780: One of the coldest times in Washington history that froze all the waterways of the Middle Atlantic region including the Potomac River and most of the Chesapeake Bay. The cold started in Dec. 1779 and lasted through the first week in Feb. The coldest periods were Jan. 6-8, Jan. 13-16 and Jan. 19-29. On the northern part of the Bay, sleighs crossed from Annapolis to the Eastern Shore. To the south Norfolk, Hampton, Newport News and Portsmouth were connected by thick ice that supported foot traffic between ports. (p. 30 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)

1836"The Big Snow" dumped 4 to 5 feet of snow on parts of New York State. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1859: This is the only day that New York City’s temperature remained continuously below zero. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)


1913: Record cold gripped the areas from the Rockies to the West Coast. Death Valley National Park in California recorded a low of 15°, the coldest reading ever recorded in Death Valley. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1923: Los Angeles recorded its hottest January temperature ever with a reading of 90 degrees. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1937: Locations from the Rockies to the West Coast endured record cold. Nevada recorded its coldest temperature ever as San Jacinto dropped to -50°. (Ref. Wilson - Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

1953 - A severe icestorm in the northeastern U.S. produced up to four inches of ice in Pennsylvania, and two to three inches in southeastern New York State. In southern New England the ice coated a layer of snow up to 20 inches deep. The storm resulted in 31 deaths and 2.5 million dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1973 - A severe icestorm struck Atlanta GA. The storm paralyzed the city closing schools and businesses, and damage from the storm was estimated at 25 million dollars. One to four inches of ice coated northern Georgia leaving 300,000 persons without electricity for up to a week. Between 7 PM and 9 PM on the 7th, 2.27 inches (liquid content) of freezing rain, sleet and snow coated Atlanta, as the temperature hovered at 32 degrees. (7th-8th) (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

 

1973: Georgia's worst ice storm since 1935 occurred from the 7th through the 8th. Freezing rain and sleet began during the early morning hours on Sunday the 7th and ended in most areas on Monday. Total damage was estimated at well over $25 million. The electric power companies suffered losses estimated at $5 million, and telephone companies had another $2 million in damages. Some schools were closed for more than a week. 

1987 - A winter storm moving out of the Southern Rockies into the Central Plains Region produced 14 inches of snow at Red River NM, and 17 inches in the Wolf Creek ski area of Colorado. Wichita KS was blanketed with seven inches of snow. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - A winter storm spread heavy snow across the northeastern U.S., with up to ten inches reported in southern New Jersey. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Strong northwesterly winds and bitterly cold temperatures prevailed in the north central U.S. Winds in the Great Lakes Region gusted to 58 mph at Chicago IL, and reached 63 mph at Niagara Falls NY. Squalls in western New York State produced 20 inches of snow at Barnes Corners and Lowville. Snow squalls in Upper Michigan produced 26 inches around Keweenaw. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1990 - High winds plagued the northwestern U.S., with the state of Oregon hardest hit. Two persons were killed in Oregon, and nine others were injured, and the high winds downed fifty-five million board feet of timber, valued at more than twenty million dollars. Winds gusted to 90 mph near Pinehurst ID, and wind gusts reached 96 mph at Stevenson WA. (National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

 

2019: An unusual January tornado impacted Cortland, Ohio, during the mid-morning hours. The EF-1 tornado developed northeast of Champion Township in Trumbull County and moved east. The tornado brought down numerous trees and wires along the 4.5-mile path. 

[SACRUS]

 

 

First week of Jan Departures through the 7th
 

LGA: -3.5
NYC: -2.3
JFK: -2.2
EWR: -1.6

[WeatherGeek2025]

Good morning guys,

 

plenty of opportunities for next week, we'll see what happens. We need a big one here

[Krs4Lfe]

27 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Good morning guys,

 

plenty of opportunities for next week, we'll see what happens. We need a big one here

One big one could get us closer to seasonal average. Would make this torch all the more worthwhile 

[Krs4Lfe]

I think we’ll bust warm here in NYC today. Full sun out, no breeze, feels like spring. Warmest weather yet to come this weekend, could be well into the 50s

[NEG NAO]

34 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

Good morning guys,

 

plenty of opportunities for next week, we'll see what happens. We need a big one here

All the new players will be on the field next week - how those 2 disturbances too the west and south of us interact with each other will determine whether we have a chance of an East Coast Snowstorm. Strong ridging along the west coast helps transport the colder air in from Canada and blocks the Pacific Jet from flooding the country with warmer air which we have experienced recently - keeping that ridge in place and strong is very important

[Brian5671]

18 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

I think we’ll bust warm here in NYC today. Full sun out, no breeze, feels like spring. Warmest weather yet to come this weekend, could be well into the 50s

most warmups here the last 2 decades have overperformed.