26th-27th event, coming at us like a wounded duck.

[Ginx snewx]

Tic toc

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS looks very euro like and reasonable 

[Typhoon Tip]

The whole system seems a bit over-wrought.   Wouldn't be the first time the guidance proved too amped ... Then in now-cast the lower edge of verification starts materializing ... 

Thing is, source-origin and climo.  It's not favoring upper ranged numbers.  This event is born of a dry sourced polar wave (clipper-esque), and isn't joining or phasing with a deeper moisture source - only the Lakes upstream as a moisture inject ... and it's not physically very clear that's actually being sourced, either.  Additionally, it is moving fast.  It smacks a little like over-cooked QPF moving above climatology velocities through the area.   Could snow hard but too briefly.

Will go ahead with the consensus but ... I won't personally be surprised if this under performs by some.   

[WxWatcher007]

Tick tick tick…more at 12z

Merry Christmas 

 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS looks very euro like and reasonable 

You know what's going through the mind right now...what if the banding actually occurs even farther north then what guidance has (which we know is something that is rather common)...that could essentially put like along or south of the MA Pike through BDL and kevin into the jackpot zone lol

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

You know what's going through the mind right now...what if the banding actually occurs even farther north then what guidance has (which we know is something that is rather common)...that could essentially put like along or south of the MA Pike through BDL and kevin into the jackpot zone lol

In the back of my mind too…

[Spanks45]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

You know what's going through the mind right now...what if the banding actually occurs even farther north then what guidance has (which we know is something that is rather common)...that could essentially put like along or south of the MA Pike through BDL and kevin into the jackpot zone lol

Easy there, stopped taking our jackpot down here....lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You know what's going through the mind right now...what if the banding actually occurs even farther north then what guidance has (which we know is something that is rather common)...that could essentially put like along or south of the MA Pike through BDL and kevin into the jackpot zone lol

I’ve definitely thought this. Would be be surprised if it we get the one max Binghamton to bdr then another slightly less max around Kevin 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’m hoping that this ends up having some banding north of where it’s currently projected.

Going to need something like that here 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Easy there, stopped taking our jackpot down here....lol

Ultimately I think you're in a great spot...and kudos to those who have mentioned that to you over the past day or two. I thought the hope was low for such a big bump northeast, but alas here we are. There are still lots of uncertainties with this, but that is going to make for a fun (but stressful) forecast. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I’ve definitely thought this. Would be be surprised if it we get the one max Binghamton to bdr then another slightly less max around Kevin 

these certainly typically have two max areas. I like your idea of BGM to BDR for the main max zone. Hell, you can even see that on the GFS too

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Keep bumping NE to go time.

[H2Otown_WX]

14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is all coming well NE. Writing on wall . Don’t rule out sleet into NYC

Alright fine, you win I'm dumb 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, H2Otown_WX said:

Alright fine, you win I'm dumb 

meh get your shit together 

[Kitz Craver]

17 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Tic toc

Nice bulge 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Nice bulge 

Ya..I’d love to grab an 8 burger.  Dam that’d be nice. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The whole system seems a bit over-wrought.   Wouldn't be the first time the guidance proved too amped ... Then in now-cast the lower edge of verification starts materializing ... 

Thing is, source-origin and climo.  It's not favoring upper ranged numbers.  This event is born of a dry sourced polar wave (clipper-esque), and isn't joining or phasing with a deeper moisture source - only the Lakes upstream as a moisture inject ... and it's not physically very clear that's actually being sourced, either.  Additionally, it is moving fast.  It smacks a little like over-cooked QPF moving above climatology velocities through the area.   Could snow hard but too briefly.

Will go ahead with the consensus but ... I won't personally be surprised if this under performs by some.   

I think things definitely de amp as we get to 00z tonight.. Will be a 6-8" jack zone locally 10.. and 3-6" around that with 1-3" on the fringes.. Not some of these wild solutions we've seen.  Euro has had the right idea of not being too amped.. 

[Snowcrazed71]

I keep looking at the national weather service to see if they're going to extend the winter storm watches more into Connecticut than just Southwest CT. I wouldn't be surprised if by later today they include at least the western half of Connecticut in the winter storm watch, maybe not Litchfield county. 

By the way, Merry Christmas to everyone

[mob1]

 

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I keep looking at the national weather service to see if they're going to extend the winter storm watches more into Connecticut than just Southwest CT. I wouldn't be surprised if by later today they include at least the western half of Connecticut in the winter storm watch, maybe not Litchfield county. 

By the way, Merry Christmas to everyone

At this point they have to, maybe they're waiting for the 12Z suite to finish but I'm sure a rather big area will be added to the watch very soon. 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RRFS finally on board whats a 250 mile multi run shift amongst drunk brothers 

Next run just give me 50 no need for another 250 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

NWS upton is very stubborn with adjusting to the NE trend, watches should be further east and totals adjusted up.. the Jack no longer looks like NYC metro which they have ..

[Spanks45]

30 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Ultimately I think you're in a great spot...and kudos to those who have mentioned that to you over the past day or two. I thought the hope was low for such a big bump northeast, but alas here we are. There are still lots of uncertainties with this, but that is going to make for a fun (but stressful) forecast. 

Forecasting would be boring if it were always that easy....although the wife wants to head to PA Saturday Morning and is wishing this away. All the while, 2 of the 4 kids are wishing this and refusing to leave if they have snow to play in...true snow weenies they are

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, mob1 said:

 

At this point they have to, maybe they're waiting for the 12Z suite to finish but I'm sure a rather big area will be added to the watch very soon. 

any changes/adjustments would mostly likely come with the afternoon package and I doubt any significant changes would be made until after assessing the Euro too. 

This is a very delicate situation, we've been burned before shooting the moon with these amped solutions only for things to trend down a bit as we got closer. The trends have been great for our region, but there are still lots of uncertainties and flags to consider, particularly when determining what and where the max swath will be. This is probably something we can't even pin down until nowcasting time. @Sey-Mour Snow thoughts several posts up I think sum this up extremely well with a sharp cutoff away from the strip

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Forecasting would be boring if it were always that easy....although the wife wants to head to PA Saturday Morning and is wishing this away. All the while, 2 of the 4 kids are wishing this and refusing to leave if they have snow to play in...true snow weenies they are

I would certainly hold off traveling Saturday morning, where to in PA? 

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NWS upton is very stubborn with adjusting to the NE trend, watches should be further east and totals adjusted up.. the Jack no longer looks like NYC metro which they have ..

They’ll update in afternoon package most likely. 

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Forecasting would be boring if it were always that easy....although the wife wants to head to PA Saturday Morning and is wishing this away. All the while, 2 of the 4 kids are wishing this and refusing to leave if they have snow to play in...true snow weenies they are

You raised ‘em right. Merry Christmas.

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

NYC in trouble 

I am in SWCT so that puts me in trouble as well.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

I am in SWCT so that puts me in trouble as well.

You’re in a great spot imo. 

[tavwtby]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They’ll update in afternoon package most likely. 

ALY will probably hold, or at least a WWA...no watch yet I don't think here, maybe south Litchfield cty.

[jbenedet]

There was no “tick-tick” north on the GEFS or EPS. Noise on the GFS op.

The -NAO block is intensifying so i don’t see a surprise last minute jump north with this.

 

5-10” storm for NYC metro. Models have been locked.