Boxing Day Ice Ice Baby!

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, soadforecasterx said:

FV3 shows that rates can overcome upper level warmth. 

You can see that possibility on the Nam 850's at 57hrs. Look at the colder line of temps thanks to uvv and precip intensity.

[baltosquid]

If there's anything I've learned from Baltimore specifically, it's that we rarely pull off the rate-driven p-type change. Maybe because of urban heat island or something, idk. But I can't remember a case of "rates will get us the snow we need" working out for us. If a last minute miracle was to appear for this, wouldn't feel comfortable here if it was solely depending on rates.

[snowfan]

13 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

If there's anything I've learned from Baltimore specifically, it's that we rarely pull off the rate-driven p-type change. Maybe because of urban heat island or something, idk. But I can't remember a case of "rates will get us the snow we need" working out for us. If a last minute miracle was to appear for this, wouldn't feel comfortable here if it was solely depending on rates.

This will be a non issue for baltimore proper. 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

This will be a non issue for baltimore proper. 

Don’t forget NOVA no issue. We continue to fail at an excellent rate. Merry Christmas though

[clskinsfan]

RGEM with basically nothing south of the Mason Dixon line....

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM with basically nothing south of the Mason Dixon line....

It's a beyond terrible model, I don't even bother looking at it.  Not saying we're getting a crippling ice storm, but it'll be disruptive to a few areas here I think.

[Interstate]

Oh well look at that... the GFS really dried up around here.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

Oh well look at that... the GFS really dried up around here.

It's a shame it can't be trusted AT ALL anymore. It used to have some coups, but now it just stinks. And shows that the Nam and even the Rgem are better once in their range.

[mappy]

Hard to tell if I need to rush home Friday morning or not 

[Solution Man]

52 minutes ago, mappy said:

Hard to tell if I need to rush home Friday morning or not 

Don’t rush, Merry Christmas @mappy

[WxUSAF]

State College NWS has issued watches for all their counties along the M/D line 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

State College NWS has issued watches for all their counties along the M/D line 

They been up since 2am lol

[mappy]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Don’t rush, Merry Christmas @mappy

Merry Christmas!

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

They been up since 2am lol

I wasn’t awake then to post about it 

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EURO. EURO is below freezing on Friday just North of DC all day.

[ravensrule]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO. EURO is below freezing on Friday just North of DC all day.

According to @snowfanthis is nothing. 

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

According to @snowfanthis is nothing. 

It is not the torch that was advertised less than a week ago... baby steps.

[ravensrule]

Just now, Weather Will said:

It is not the torch that was advertised less than a week ago... baby steps.

It’s going to be slippery and wet on Friday. Make sure to wear your rubbers. 

[snowfan]

8 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

According to @snowfanthis is nothing. 

Actually, if you would slow down and read you'll note that I wrote this would be a non issue for most on this board. I've seen nothing in any guidance to counter that given the geographic distribution of posters in this sub. 

[ravensrule]

3 hours ago, snowfan said:

This will be a non issue for baltimore proper. 

 

10 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Actually, if you would slow down and read you'll note that I wrote this would be a non issue for most on this board. I've seen nothing in any guidance to counter that given the geographic distribution of posters in this sub. 

This is what you wrote. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

Another nothing burger out here.  We are going to be in very dire straights out here this summer unless something drastically changes.

[ravensrule]

11 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Another nothing burger out here.  We are going to be in very dire straights out here this summer unless something drastically changes.

You may need to import water from the Chesapeake. 

[IronTy]

WSW hoisted for up here in Bittinger.  Up to 0.4" ice and 1" of sleet apparently.  

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EURO. EURO is below freezing on Friday just North of DC all day.

Yessssss

[TSSN+]

Nam said what storm 18z run lol. What a crap model. 

[StormyClearweather]

10 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam said what storm 18z run lol. What a crap model. 

I'm sticking with the RRFSOPQXYZ

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

I'm sticking with the RRFSOPQXYZ

We really need to see the RRFSOPQXYZ ensembles.  I hear there are 26 members!! 

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, ravensrule said:

You may need to import water from the Chesapeake. 

We're going to need to build an aquaduct from one of the Great Lakes.

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Nam said what storm 18z run lol. What a crap model. 

....or what a crap storm.

[WEATHER53]

Man and just 5 days ago our science tools had DC near 70 

Let’s  face it.  NOAA is No Different than any other  government organization-seeking to preserve  itself with actual outcome of services  secondary at best 
Cover all bases and claim verification come crunch time ..  One prominent poster  here recently stated he has drastically changed his involvement with models .  We all should and apply whatever pressures you can