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Boxing Day Ice Ice Baby!

peribonca

By peribonca,
in Mid Atlantic

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nj2va

nj2va

Posted
Posted

Latest disco: 

Models continue to advertise the possibility of a winter storm on
Friday, particularly for locations north of I-66/U.S. 50. A
preponderance of the 12Z guidance favor an area from I-70 northward
across the Mason-Dixon Line into Pennsylvania. The setup is
certainly favorable for a wintry mix dominated by freezing rain and
sleet. Canadian high pressure builds over Quebec while a stationary
boundary arcs west to east across the Carolinas. The resultant cold-
air damming (CAD) signature is quite favorable to such setups. Low-
level cold air becomes locked in place while warm advection above
this layer ushers in milder air aloft into the (925-850 mb layer).
Models are also hinting at some snow toward northern Maryland given
colder thermodynamic profiles. All and all, travelers will need to
consider this potential winter storm in their plans for Friday.
Aside from this precipitation threat, it will be a chilly day across
the region with highs in the 30s to low 40s (40s along the
Alleghenies).
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SnowenOutThere

SnowenOutThere

Posted
Posted

I didn't start the thread so we all know this storm is over before it even begun. 

Just kidding! I tried analyzing the difference between the GFS and Euro and while I am able to make some conclusions on what we want to see change there's a rather large feature that I am just not smart enough to know what it does. 

Starting off with the Euro we can see four distinct features; the first is the departing trough off to the east which acts as confluence forcing the storm south, the second is the shortwave itself, the third is the mid latitude ridge over the central plains, and the final piece is the energy north of our shortwave. 

1766772000-BTHyl43VlUI.png

So, what I do understand are how the players 1 (departing storm east of Canada) and 3 (mid-lat ridge) are impacting our shortwave and subsequent storm. In order to get the suppressed storm that somehow manages to precipitate cold stuff over us (I'm not even getting into ptype here) we want the player 1 to exit slower and further south as this helps suppress the flow in front of our shortwave. As many previous posters have said the 500 height lines act as train tracks for our storms to follow (which is evident if you would play this map through time). Additionally, a further southwest player 1 helps trap in our high (which is already displaced too far north for our liking) better. Adding onto getting our 500 height lines further south we need the mid latitude ridge over the central US to be further west based and further south as well. A comparison of the Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) 500 height anomalies shows the difference players 1 and 3 makes quite nicely. 

1766782800-QYKaKji6XQE.png

1766782800-FArF4twVKaM.png

Notice the GFS has a flatter and more western ridge and a more intense storm off Canada. This is where my real knowledge of the subject ends as now I get to discuss players 2 (our shortwave) and 4 (northern energy) interacting. 

Once again we will use the vorticity charts to highlight these differences between the models as GFS has these two players interact which seems to favor a more north/south tilted storm and precip axis which interacts positively for us. Additionally, the GFS has a far wetter storm and I wonder if it could be the extra vorticity helping out? Once again GFS on bottom and Euro on top

1766782800-82j6HkeNWEY.png

1766782800-Pb6dnIYVXWM.png

To be honest though I'll be in NYC due to an interesting set of circumstances (home alone 2 style) so I think I'll win out either way! 

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RIC_WX

RIC_WX

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Ugh, we're driving from my parents house in NJ to Deep Creek Friday morning.   Might need to leave around 4a to miss the weather.

Sketchy drive?  Maybe.  The GFS has 850 at -8C for State College and +8C for Morgantown.  Don't forget ur umbrella. 

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