Boxing Day Ice Ice Baby!

[peribonca]

Under 84 hours out... Lfg

[BristowWx]

Fair thee well Boxing Day ice threat...we hardly knew ye

[rjvanals]

Sleet is kinda fun and sticks around. Freezing Rain sucks 

[gopper]

All frozen is awesome! Each form has its own uniqueness.  You just need to know how to deal with each....kinda like having children...no favorites

[North Balti Zen]

Can we name the thread something else…

(The lambs are still screaming )

[peribonca]

3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Can we name the thread something else…

(The lambs are still screaming )

Time to move on

[Eskimo Joe]

All frozen is good. 

[bncho]

four threads in December? I’m pretty content with giving it at least a B.

[WxUSAF]

#SleetCounts #NoIPLeftBehind

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

29 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Can we name the thread something else…

(The lambs are still screaming )

You still wake up in the dark, don't you, to that awful screaming of the lambs?  Try some fava beans with a nice chianti! 

[Eskimo Joe]

15 minutes ago, bncho said:

four threads in December? I’m pretty content with giving it at least a B.

Need to hit climo snowfall to even reach for the B.

[Eskimo Joe]

12z EPS has 80% chance of M0.1" ZR north of I-66 for Friday.

[H2O]

32 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Can we name the thread something else…

(The lambs are still screaming )

Xmas gift return day?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Nice little surprise storm. Models put down about 2" of sleet here. GFS has 4" snowdepth, but that's probably mostly ice. I'm in a good position though, the cold air wedges in pretty good SW. And it's a daytime storm for once, should be pretty out! 

[nj2va]

Ugh, we're driving from my parents house in NJ to Deep Creek Friday morning.   Might need to leave around 4a to miss the weather.

[nj2va]

Latest disco:

Models continue to advertise the possibility of a winter storm on
Friday, particularly for locations north of I-66/U.S. 50. A
preponderance of the 12Z guidance favor an area from I-70 northward
across the Mason-Dixon Line into Pennsylvania. The setup is
certainly favorable for a wintry mix dominated by freezing rain and
sleet. Canadian high pressure builds over Quebec while a stationary
boundary arcs west to east across the Carolinas. The resultant cold-
air damming (CAD) signature is quite favorable to such setups. Low-
level cold air becomes locked in place while warm advection above
this layer ushers in milder air aloft into the (925-850 mb layer).
Models are also hinting at some snow toward northern Maryland given
colder thermodynamic profiles. All and all, travelers will need to
consider this potential winter storm in their plans for Friday.
Aside from this precipitation threat, it will be a chilly day across
the region with highs in the 30s to low 40s (40s along the
Alleghenies).

[SnowenOutThere]

I didn't start the thread so we all know this storm is over before it even begun. 

Just kidding! I tried analyzing the difference between the GFS and Euro and while I am able to make some conclusions on what we want to see change there's a rather large feature that I am just not smart enough to know what it does. 

Starting off with the Euro we can see four distinct features; the first is the departing trough off to the east which acts as confluence forcing the storm south, the second is the shortwave itself, the third is the mid latitude ridge over the central plains, and the final piece is the energy north of our shortwave. 

So, what I do understand are how the players 1 (departing storm east of Canada) and 3 (mid-lat ridge) are impacting our shortwave and subsequent storm. In order to get the suppressed storm that somehow manages to precipitate cold stuff over us (I'm not even getting into ptype here) we want the player 1 to exit slower and further south as this helps suppress the flow in front of our shortwave. As many previous posters have said the 500 height lines act as train tracks for our storms to follow (which is evident if you would play this map through time). Additionally, a further southwest player 1 helps trap in our high (which is already displaced too far north for our liking) better. Adding onto getting our 500 height lines further south we need the mid latitude ridge over the central US to be further west based and further south as well. A comparison of the Euro (top) and GFS (bottom) 500 height anomalies shows the difference players 1 and 3 makes quite nicely. 

Notice the GFS has a flatter and more western ridge and a more intense storm off Canada. This is where my real knowledge of the subject ends as now I get to discuss players 2 (our shortwave) and 4 (northern energy) interacting. 

Once again we will use the vorticity charts to highlight these differences between the models as GFS has these two players interact which seems to favor a more north/south tilted storm and precip axis which interacts positively for us. Additionally, the GFS has a far wetter storm and I wonder if it could be the extra vorticity helping out? Once again GFS on bottom and Euro on top

To be honest though I'll be in NYC due to an interesting set of circumstances (home alone 2 style) so I think I'll win out either way! 

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Ugh, we're driving from my parents house in NJ to Deep Creek Friday morning.   Might need to leave around 4a to miss the weather.

Guess I have to postpone my drive to Niagra Falls on Friday.

[RIC_WX]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

Ugh, we're driving from my parents house in NJ to Deep Creek Friday morning.   Might need to leave around 4a to miss the weather.

Sketchy drive?  Maybe.  The GFS has 850 at -8C for State College and +8C for Morgantown.  Don't forget ur umbrella. 

[clskinsfan]

Extrapolating the NAM is a FOOLS GAME. But it has a much better HP at 18Z compared to 12Z. Guess I will be the fool. 

[bncho]

18z GFS holds! Best news of the last 3 minutes.

[TSSN+]

Sleet bomb continues on gfs. .75” qpf all sleet for me on gfs. Joy lol

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS

[bncho]

GFS is actually pretty cold at onset. Even in the metros it starts at 31, then drops to 29 before rising. Sleet should stick pretty well before the changeover verbatim.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS

 2” of sleet. Wild if true. 

[Eskimo Joe]

18z Euro AI gives Harford and Cecil County ties a ~40% chance of exceeding 3" of snow.

[mappy]

3 hours ago, nj2va said:

Ugh, we're driving from my parents house in NJ to Deep Creek Friday morning.   Might need to leave around 4a to miss the weather.

Yeah we have a drive on Friday too 

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 2” of sleet. Wild if true. 

It shows up on the snow depth map. Our snow depth (including sleet of course), is greater than some all snow locations thanks to the density of the sleet.