Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[wthrmn654]

It's Christmas fing day! Come on people let's have a little class wait till 12:01 am before critiquing people or giving opinions on people in here.

[BxEngine]

11 minutes ago, snywx said:

We can potentially close December with 25”+ up this way. Can’t remember the last time that happened 

How dare you ruin the pity party in this nyc and south forum!

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, snywx said:

We can potentially close December with 25”+ up this way. Can’t remember the last time that happened 

I think the last time Orange County had widespread 20”+ was back in December 2002.

Monthly Data for December 2002 for Orange County, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

GARDNERVILLE	COOP	20.1
PORT JERVIS	COOP	34.0
WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	22.5
WEST POINT	COOP	30.5

 

 

[MJO812]

21 minutes ago, mob1 said:

LHV should do very well

We get hit hard on gfs. Why are you complaining?

[mob1]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We get hit hard on gfs. Why are you complaining?

This is like a carbon copy of you disregarding BL temps in the last storm (though I personally didn't have that issue - many, yourself included, did). 

Trends are bad for us, mixing is pretty much guaranteed now. I don't control the weather, just saying what models and trends are indicating. 

Merry Christmas!

[Northof78]

GFS 6" - 10" for all in subforum, steady as she goes....Merry Christmas! 

[ILoveWinter]

4-8” in the immediate metro is a good call at this stage as it sets a reasonable floor if mixing comes into play. 

[Snowlover11]

Sticking with my call of 5-8” with lollis to 10” If I’m wrong I’ll burn down with the ship.

[mob1]

Canadian definitely cut back but is still decent enough I guess (if you temper expectations).

My guess for now is 2-5" for me

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

GFS 6" - 10" for all in subforum, steady as she goes....Merry Christmas! 

I like 3-6 to play it safe and then we can adjust more.

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

This is like a carbon copy of you disregarding BL temps in the last storm (though I personally didn't have that issue - many, yourself included, did). 

Trends are bad for us, mixing is pretty much guaranteed now. I don't control the weather, just saying what models and trends are indicating. 

Merry Christmas!

Very cold BL temps vs other storm. Thump to ZR/Sleet most likely scenario. 4-8" right on the money from forecasts

[NorthShoreWx]

This will probably turn out pretty well.  Even for the places that get a lot of sleet, it's gonna be the best sleet evah!  

Merry Christmas, happy festivus, happy St. Swithin's Day, what ever Stokes yer snowblower. 

[snywx]

29 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the last time Orange County had widespread 20”+ was back in December 2002.

Monthly Data for December 2002 for Orange County, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

GARDNERVILLE	COOP	20.1
PORT JERVIS	COOP	34.0
WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	22.5
WEST POINT	COOP	30.5

 

 

02-03 was amazing up here. Dec 5 I beleive had a 20 piece and quite a few of the favored locations up here finished that season 100+

[BoulderWX]

5 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Canadian definitely cut back but is still decent enough I guess (if you temper expectations).

My guess for now is 2-5" for me

Not sure where you are but that’s reasonable, I’m on the 3-6 train for most, LHV will do best. Would be a ton of fun for the day after Christmas if we can get 3-6

[mob1]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very cold BL temps vs other storm. Thump to ZR/Sleet most likely scenario. 4-8" right on the money from forecasts

Didn't mean it's similar in terms of temps, just that many people pointed this out as a concern with the last storm but were told there's no way it'll be an issue. 

Weather changes fast, what was true yesterday isn't necessarily true today and it's very likely that many here will get sleet now.

If we can still piece together 3-4" of mixed frozen precipitation here, of course I'll be happy! I just don't understand why it's a crime to point out the obvious. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I think the last time Orange County had widespread 20”+ was back in December 2002.

Monthly Data for December 2002 for Orange County, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

GARDNERVILLE	COOP	20.1
PORT JERVIS	COOP	34.0
WALDEN 1 ESE	COOP	22.5
WEST POINT	COOP	30.5

 

 

Just off the top The Boxing day storm 2010 was over 20 inches in Eastern Orange County so I'm sure the month was over that. I'm not sure how the western parts of the county did then.

[snywx]

2 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Just off the top The Boxing day storm 2010 was over 20 inches in Eastern Orange County so I'm sure the month was over that. I'm not sure how the western parts of the county did then.

I got around 13” for that event. Eastern side of the county doubled our amounts 

[psv88]

11 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

This will probably turn out pretty well.  Even for the places that get a lot of sleet, it's gonna be the best sleet evah!  

Merry Christmas, happy festivus, happy St. Swithin's Day, what ever Stokes yer snowblower. 

Wouldn’t mind a good sleet storm. It’s been a while! Merry Christmas 

[MJO812]

15 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Very cold BL temps vs other storm. Thump to ZR/Sleet most likely scenario. 4-8" right on the money from forecasts

This storm will be colder than last storm

[BxEngine]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sweet delete my post. Continue to be a tool. 

You lied about my posts in this thread. I have made 2 posts, 1 of which had nothing to do with the storm. If you want to act like a child and call people names, take it up in a PM and stop ruining the thread. Merry christmas. 

[psv88]

Just now, BxEngine said:

You lied about my posts in this thread. I have made 2 posts, 1 of which had nothing to do with the storm. If you want to act like a child and call people names, take it up in a PM and stop ruining the thread. Merry christmas. 

Maybe grow up. I’m saying what most people are thinking. 

[BxEngine]

Just now, psv88 said:

Maybe grow up. I’m saying what most people are thinking. 

I think the ones whining need to grow up. But lets move on please. Thank you

[weatherpruf]

13 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

This will probably turn out pretty well.  Even for the places that get a lot of sleet, it's gonna be the best sleet evah!  

Merry Christmas, happy festivus, happy St. Swithin's Day, what ever Stokes yer snowblower. 

was watching reruns of the show elementary because i was working and raising kids in that era and never watched tv....and there was an episode from 2014 where someone stole the zebras from the bronx zoo....and they are walking all through the zoo during one of the many snow storms we had that year.....jonny miller who has played sherlock more than any other actor still had hair, was a handsome guy, and lucy liu was at her most gorgeous, though she can still turn heads....i read she was discovered while taking the subway...a queens girl iirc....

[brooklynwx99]

i would go with 2-4” here in Morristown and 3-6” in the city. def could be on the low side, but would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed 

it’s been a while since we’ve been looking at potential warning snowfall in the city in the middle of the holiday season. everyone in the metro should enjoy 

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would go with 2-4” here in Morristown and 3-6” in the city. def could be on the low side, but would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed 

it’s been a while since we’ve been looking at potential warning snowfall in the city in the middle of the holiday season. everyone in the metro should enjoy 

3-6  was kinda the standard in most of the 70s...someone posted a wcbs weather report from the 70s awhile ago where it was big news that the city had 8 inches....i wanna say craig allen but was he around way back then? i was but a middle school lad....

[NJwx85]

The GFS soundings look great for all snow for just about everyone. My biggest concern is how much snow growth there will be. This is primarily an overrunning event. Just because it’s cold doesn’t mean you’re going to get great ratios. It helps but that’s just one piece of the puzzle. There should be a 3-6 hour period where most of the snow falls. I would be cautious with forecasting more than 4-6” for most.

[weatherpruf]

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Maybe grow up. I’m saying what most people are thinking. 

 

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

I think the ones whining need to grow up. But lets move on please. Thank you

kinda shocked to see a couple veterans squabbling like this...someone pee in the corn flakes guys? i mean it is christmas. i understand we have some jewish, hindu and muslim friends here, as well as agnostics like me, but come on....it's like you'd all be happier if they were calling for rain and 58 degrees.....we got frozen precip on the way, let's be happy. might be all we see for weeks....

[BoulderWX]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i would go with 2-4” here in Morristown and 3-6” in the city. def could be on the low side, but would rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed 

it’s been a while since we’ve been looking at potential warning snowfall in the city in the middle of the holiday season. everyone in the metro should enjoy 

Rare storm where we’ll be lower than NYC - agreed. Just want enough to be able to go sledding with my son.

[Stormlover74]

The ukie is decent mostly 3 to 5. The heavy initial band kinda goes north of the area so amounts are lower for that reason than mixing 

[Rjay]

16 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Sweet delete my post. Continue to be a tool. 

Relax it's Christmas.  I think Bx has only posted twice in this thread.