12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

NAMs are a step back and suggest surface temps could be a issue inside the beltway

It lost like 0.2 qpf everywhere.  

[LP08]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

It lost like 0.2 qpf everywhere.  

[bncho]

Just now, LP08 said:

the issue is that it has precip starting around 1-2am in DC, even though it will probably be more like 11pm-12am

[stormtracker]

Just now, LP08 said:

Yeah, it's a dip, not because of temps just looks....drier.  Everywhere.    But...with a swing like that, I'd wait

[Eskimo Joe]

Looking to our west, Pittsburgh upped snowfall totals along the MD/PA line. Seems like this system is rather energetic, and I would argue it bodes well for us later on tonight.

[WxUSAF]

Tiny snowflakes. 

[kristia]

32/31 here

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, wxmvpete said:

I have 0.3" of snow from my 1,000ft residence 6 miles northeast of Westminster.

Gotta be near Manchester with that elevation. One of the 2 ridges north of Manchester would be my guess. 

[osfan24]

HRRR and NAM seems to have cut back some. We shall see how it plays out. I think, in the end, the usual favored spots are going to be the place to be.

[Jeff B]

Snowfall has commenced.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Tiny snowflakes. 

As long as that's ok with the Mrs., who are we to judge.

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest AFD from LWX:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
907 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An Arctic front bring a blast of snow and bitter cold 
temperatures to the area late tonight into Sunday. Accumulating
snow will push into the mountains this afternoon before 
spreading east later this evening and into the overnight hours. 
Gusty winds behind the front will lead to plunging temperatures 
with wind chills values expected in the teens and single digits 
late Sunday afternoon. Arctic high pressure settles over the 
region Monday before shifting offshore Tuesday. This will yield 
a pattern change with warming temperatures heading into the 
middle and end of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
No major changes to the previous forecast. Added western 
Loudoun to the Winter Weather Advisory earlier this evening. 
This is a banding type set up with favorable conditions for CSI
banding. Given that, some areas will overperform and some will
underperform, just the nature of banding. Snow has been the
p-type observed at onset across most of MD thus far. Further
south, rain may mix in at onset. Currently evaluating guidance 
to see if any potential extensions are necessary in the 
advisory further south into Prince William or Fredericksburg. 
Just not enough confidence at this time. Also, areas in NE MD 
near the PA State Line may approach warning criteria. Just 
something to keep an eye on.

[Eskimo Joe]

SN- Reisterstown. Big fluffy flakes!

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, it's a dip, not because of temps just looks....drier.  Everywhere.    But...with a swing like that, I'd wait

Oh I’m not believing anything at this point.  Our temps sucked cause we lost precip

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

HRRR and NAM seems to have cut back some. We shall see how it plays out. I think, in the end, the usual favored spots are going to be the place to be.

Always gotta be a little cautious on the leeward side of these types of systems. The Apps are hungry mountains.

[Maestrobjwa]

Rain in Baltimore to start...but I think I see some wet flakes mixing in

[Wetbulbs88]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

Always gotta be a little cautious on the leeward side of these types of systems. The Apps are hungry mountains.

This has been my thinking throughout. My expectations are low for DC proper. 

It's kind of like Miller Bs, where the transfer is like threading a needle. Not exactly the same here but it's similar. 

[WxUSAF]

Temp has actually increased about a degree in the last hour 

[osfan24]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Temp has actually increased about a degree in the last hour 

I bounced from 34 to 35 but back down to 34.

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

I bounced from 34 to 35 but back down to 34.

You’re right under that band. Getting good flakes?

[bncho]

jumped up from 36 to 39 lol

[rjvanals]

Light rain 37

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Temp has actually increased about a degree in the last hour 

Happened to me. Bumped up to 38 degrees, now down to 36. Seems like there might be some weird warm layer close to the surface? Westminster and Parkton mesonet sites dipped below 32° so it can't be too far off.

[WVclimo]

First flakes reaching the ground.  34°

[wxmvpete]

19 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gotta be near Manchester with that elevation. One of the 2 ridges north of Manchester would be my guess. 

Ding ding ding. I am essentially in the triangle NE of Westminster, W of Hampstead, and SW of Manchester.

[osfan24]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

You’re right under that band. Getting good flakes?

Band is actually just a few miles to my northwest. Very light snow here. Flakes nothing special.

[T. August]

Light rain in Havre de Grace. 36/30. Not sure how I feel about it now lmao.

[jayyy]

In Union Bridge already? That's great honestly. Very happy to see things going right to frozen once precip starts.

Hell yeah brother. All it took was some heavier returns. Precip is blossoming nicely nearby. My area up to PSUland has 4-6” written all over it. My brother in Ellicott city said he’s got a 70/30 snow/rain mix currently

[Herb@MAWS]

9:30pm Columbia 35.3° — just got back from Ellicott City. Was at a meeting thing, but no windows. When I left there at 8:30 it was just starting to sprinkle. In the snowlight now back in Columbia, it looks like a light rain trying to change into something different that isn’t snow. 

[Weather Will]

WB 01Z HRRR... should be snowing in MBY by midnight.  DC by 4am.