12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[Kmlwx]

5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol)

The product is "Lightning flash density" and thus with lightning would come thunder!

[Kay]

Just now, T. August said:

Man if we get 5.0” I would be ecstatic. That would be the most since Feb 2019.

I never focus on having the most and that wasn't complaining. Same here. I was all set to be thrilled for 3"

[jayyy]

@SnowenOutThere curious to hear your take as to what’s causing the HRRR beef up the past 3-4 runs

[SnowenOutThere]

If this goes well for our area real credit has got to be given to the RGEM and Canadian models. The 18z keeps the good vibes going as well

[Whitecheddar]

Light rain/sleet mix started in Hagerstown.

[clskinsfan]

7 minutes ago, T. August said:

Man if we get 5.0” I would be ecstatic. That would be the most since Feb 2019.

You guys are due for sure. 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS spreads out the goods more then 12z 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, jayyy said:

@SnowenOutThere curious to hear your take as to what’s causing the HRRR beef up the past 3-4 runs

Likely has to do with the sharper 5H trough and a really pronounced 3H jet dynamics with the RER of the jet. This is classic for a dynamic system that will likely invoke a few surprises. The CAA regime involved will also be sufficient for improving ratios as the event rolls through. If this event happens next month, we’d be looking at some wide spread warning chances imo. In any case, this is shaping up to be a nice event for many in here. The northern crew has been hosed in recent years. This will be a nice event to get on the board. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, jayyy said:

@SnowenOutThere curious to hear your take as to what’s causing the HRRR beef up the past 3-4 runs

Dog, Imma be so real with you I haven't been paying attention to this storm till literally around noon today. Yesterday I wrote a 10 page paper in a day (nailed it btw) and the day before that I did my atmosphere and weather final (crushed it as well) so I have not had time to go into the dynamics of this stuff sadly. Though from a very quick overview the latest HRRR has the trough a little bit deeper and position a bit souther which helps get everything moving quicker. A consequence of this change is that positive temp advection is more favored for our area (which encourages diffusion aloft and surface lift). Here is the 20z HRRR temp advection vs the 18

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS spreads out the goods more then 12z 

Yup.  Ya ninja'd me.  I posted SV showed the same.   Not mad at it

[bncho]

the way the HRRR is trending soon it’ll show 6” for everybody lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS spreads out the goods more then 12z 

Gfs worthless at this point. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is worthless

FYP

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

Likely has to do with the sharper 5H trough and a really pronounced 3H jet dynamics with the RER of the jet. This is classic for a dynamic system that will likely invoke a few surprises. The CAA regime involved will also be sufficient for improving ratios as the event rolls through. If this event happens next month, we’d be looking at some wide spread warning chances imo. In any case, this is shaping up to be a nice event for many in here. The northern crew has been hosed in recent years. This will be a nice event to get on the board. 

Oh I just learned about all those fun things, especially the sub vs super geostrophic wind balance and how that leads to the Jet behavior and associated convergence and divergence alongside baroclinicity of shortwaves passing through isotherms. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

the way the HRRR is trending soon it’ll show 6” for everybody lol

You'd post the HRRR from 6z Friday tho.

[bncho]

all models are saying DCA gets more than 1.1”. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again—it’ll be the snowiest December for them in 16 years.

[Weather Will]

 Cloudy, 39, looks like snow.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs worthless at this point. 

 

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

FYP

You’re telling me the flagship American model is junk? Get out of town… 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Oh I just learned about all those fun things, especially the sub vs super geostrophic wind balance and how that leads to the Jet behavior and associated convergence and divergence alongside baroclinicity of shortwaves passing through isotherms. 

Love to hear it!! Dynamics is fun and very very important. It provides a foundation for understanding. You’re doing great!! 

[rjvanals]

 Closest light snow currently looks to be at Liberty Mtn just across the PA border 

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The product is "Lightning flash density" and thus with lightning would come thunder!

Ohhh!! Now why in the world would they make that the same color as snow? That's what I thought I was looking at--not cool WB, haha (in retrospect that wouldn't make sense but still--choose yellow for crying out loud )

[WxUSAF]

Harford and Cecil probably deserved warnings…

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Love to hear it!! Dynamics is fun and very very important. It provides a foundation for understanding. You’re doing great!! 

Unfortunately, that's  the one class I am missing. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Oh I just learned about all those fun things, especially the sub vs super geostrophic wind balance and how that leads to the Jet behavior and associated convergence and divergence alongside baroclinicity of shortwaves passing through isotherms. 

And this is all from the same course? Man...I'd love to take a course like that just to learn some basics.

[aldie 22]

You can tell how gun shy the region is most of the media are playing it conservative or downplaying it. You'd think a mid December overnight snow would at least get some upside treatment. I wonder if they think more rain to start or just moving too fast

[clueless]

Nice just for once that the trend is your friend!  

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

You can tell how gun shy the region is most of the media are playing it conservative or downplaying it. You'd think a mid December overnight snow would at least get some upside treatment. I wonder if they think more rain to start or just moving too fast

I think most feel it's better to reverse bust than to bust high

[GATECH]

Gorgeous sunset, pink in every direction.

[snowmagnet]

18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

If this goes well for our area real credit has got to be given to the RGEM and Canadian models. The 18z keeps the good vibes going as well

Come on, you can do it. Just cross that tiny divide and get all of us. 

[T. August]

We doing obs in here?

37.9/30 in Havre de Grace. If we can get to 34° by precip start I think it’ll be ok.