Kmlwx Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Now what do you see there that would say thundersnow? (Real question not sarcasm, lol) The product is "Lightning flash density" and thus with lightning would come thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, T. August said: Man if we get 5.0” I would be ecstatic. That would be the most since Feb 2019. I never focus on having the most and that wasn't complaining. Same here. I was all set to be thrilled for 3" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 @SnowenOutThere curious to hear your take as to what’s causing the HRRR beef up the past 3-4 runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 If this goes well for our area real credit has got to be given to the RGEM and Canadian models. The 18z keeps the good vibes going as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitecheddar Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Light rain/sleet mix started in Hagerstown. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 7 minutes ago, T. August said: Man if we get 5.0” I would be ecstatic. That would be the most since Feb 2019. You guys are due for sure. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 GFS spreads out the goods more then 12z 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, jayyy said: @SnowenOutThere curious to hear your take as to what’s causing the HRRR beef up the past 3-4 runs Likely has to do with the sharper 5H trough and a really pronounced 3H jet dynamics with the RER of the jet. This is classic for a dynamic system that will likely invoke a few surprises. The CAA regime involved will also be sufficient for improving ratios as the event rolls through. If this event happens next month, we’d be looking at some wide spread warning chances imo. In any case, this is shaping up to be a nice event for many in here. The northern crew has been hosed in recent years. This will be a nice event to get on the board. 9 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, jayyy said: @SnowenOutThere curious to hear your take as to what’s causing the HRRR beef up the past 3-4 runs Dog, Imma be so real with you I haven't been paying attention to this storm till literally around noon today. Yesterday I wrote a 10 page paper in a day (nailed it btw) and the day before that I did my atmosphere and weather final (crushed it as well) so I have not had time to go into the dynamics of this stuff sadly. Though from a very quick overview the latest HRRR has the trough a little bit deeper and position a bit souther which helps get everything moving quicker. A consequence of this change is that positive temp advection is more favored for our area (which encourages diffusion aloft and surface lift). Here is the 20z HRRR temp advection vs the 18 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS spreads out the goods more then 12z Yup. Ya ninja'd me. I posted SV showed the same. Not mad at it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 the way the HRRR is trending soon it’ll show 6” for everybody lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted December 13, 2025 Author Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: GFS spreads out the goods more then 12z Gfs worthless at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, TSSN+ said: Gfs is worthless FYP 2 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Just now, MillvilleWx said: Likely has to do with the sharper 5H trough and a really pronounced 3H jet dynamics with the RER of the jet. This is classic for a dynamic system that will likely invoke a few surprises. The CAA regime involved will also be sufficient for improving ratios as the event rolls through. If this event happens next month, we’d be looking at some wide spread warning chances imo. In any case, this is shaping up to be a nice event for many in here. The northern crew has been hosed in recent years. This will be a nice event to get on the board. Oh I just learned about all those fun things, especially the sub vs super geostrophic wind balance and how that leads to the Jet behavior and associated convergence and divergence alongside baroclinicity of shortwaves passing through isotherms. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, bncho said: the way the HRRR is trending soon it’ll show 6” for everybody lol You'd post the HRRR from 6z Friday tho. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 all models are saying DCA gets more than 1.1”. I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again—it’ll be the snowiest December for them in 16 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Cloudy, 39, looks like snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Gfs worthless at this point. 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: FYP You’re telling me the flagship American model is junk? Get out of town… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said: Oh I just learned about all those fun things, especially the sub vs super geostrophic wind balance and how that leads to the Jet behavior and associated convergence and divergence alongside baroclinicity of shortwaves passing through isotherms. Love to hear it!! Dynamics is fun and very very important. It provides a foundation for understanding. You’re doing great!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rjvanals Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Closest light snow currently looks to be at Liberty Mtn just across the PA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 13 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: The product is "Lightning flash density" and thus with lightning would come thunder! Ohhh!! Now why in the world would they make that the same color as snow? That's what I thought I was looking at--not cool WB, haha (in retrospect that wouldn't make sense but still--choose yellow for crying out loud ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Harford and Cecil probably deserved warnings… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Love to hear it!! Dynamics is fun and very very important. It provides a foundation for understanding. You’re doing great!! Unfortunately, that's the one class I am missing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Oh I just learned about all those fun things, especially the sub vs super geostrophic wind balance and how that leads to the Jet behavior and associated convergence and divergence alongside baroclinicity of shortwaves passing through isotherms. And this is all from the same course? Man...I'd love to take a course like that just to learn some basics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 You can tell how gun shy the region is most of the media are playing it conservative or downplaying it. You'd think a mid December overnight snow would at least get some upside treatment. I wonder if they think more rain to start or just moving too fast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Nice just for once that the trend is your friend! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: You can tell how gun shy the region is most of the media are playing it conservative or downplaying it. You'd think a mid December overnight snow would at least get some upside treatment. I wonder if they think more rain to start or just moving too fast I think most feel it's better to reverse bust than to bust high 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 Gorgeous sunset, pink in every direction. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 18 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: If this goes well for our area real credit has got to be given to the RGEM and Canadian models. The 18z keeps the good vibes going as well Come on, you can do it. Just cross that tiny divide and get all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted December 13, 2025 Share Posted December 13, 2025 We doing obs in here? 37.9/30 in Havre de Grace. If we can get to 34° by precip start I think it’ll be ok. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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