12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[nj2va]

Latest HRRR at H18 (snow still falling) - actually seems in line with Euro.

[Cobalt]

sure, why not.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest HRRR at H18 (snow still falling) - actually seems in line with Euro.

So the slight drop off isn't so much temperatures as it is where the precip sets up?

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Latest HRRR at H18 (snow still falling) - actually seems in line with Euro.

The hrrr absolutely hates Loudoun on every run. 

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Here's the 3k NAM sounding right as precip is about to start in DC.  Above freezing part of the column is *extremely* shallow.  Like 975mb or lower?  And even that part of the column has a wet bulb of 32-33.  At worst, that's probably like a few minutes of sprinkles and as soon as there are any rates at all, it's snow.  

Yeah, I was saying something similar earlier (without a sounding though) — if I was going to be home in Alexandria for this, I still wouldn’t be sweating temps.  There’s cold air above very close by and DP as precip starts is probably ~31.

[WxUSAF]

CWG bumped up a little

 

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

CWG bumped up a little

 

It's been that  way.

[The Dude]

56 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Maybe it was an icing situation I am thinking about. Which would make more sense.

Here's the criteria for a Winter Storm Warning in the LWX CFA:

A Winter Storm Warning is issued when a significant combination of hazardous winter weather is occurring or imminent.

Significant and hazardous winter weather is defined as a combination of:
1)  5 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 12-hour period or 7 inches or more of snow/sleet within a 24-hour period
AND/OR
2)  Enough ice accumulation to cause damage to trees or powerlines.
AND/OR
3)  a life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

The snow/sleet criteria for a Winter Storm Warning for the five westernmost counties (Allegany, Mineral, Grant, Pendleton, and Highland) is higher (6 inches or more within a 12-hour period; 8 inches or more within a 24-hour period).

[WxUSAF]

Hello beautiful

 

[Terpeast]

Euro reflects my thinking on where the best banding may set up just NW of 95 rather than right along it or SE (except extreme NE MD through DE and S NJ. 

[MDScienceTeacher]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

CWG bumped up a little

 

I like @Terpeastforecast a lot better at least he makes an actual forecast. This is just “I’m gonna make a map that could cover any possible outcome.”

[mappy]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Nice sounding in the band as it starts cranking around 1am in @mappyland

Im halfway home! Looking forward to the snow 

[nw baltimore wx]

Just my opinion, but if there's going to be doom and screw job posts, can we put them in the panic room?  

[87storms]

Watching from afar. Looks almost like a squall like scenario. Definitely would feel better in northeast md for this one, but looks like an advisory event incoming at least. Once I get this sunny and 70 weather (completely opposite weather pattern in Vegas) out of my system I’ll be ready for a snowstorm lol. Good luck to the Frederick crew…would be happy to see that area get on the board with something other than a cartopper. 3 hrs behind here so I’ll prob peep the radar later.

[Ji]

The hrrr absolutely hates Loudoun on every run. 

Most of the fun of tracking is model runs and its been horrendous for us

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Most of the fun of tracking is model runs and its been horrendous for us

Seems to be consensus NE of us but our area changes every run it feels like. My final call for my backyard is 0.9"

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Seems to be consensus NE of us but our area changes every run it feels like. My final call for my backyard is 0.9"

Yeah, not ours…good luck north 

[rjvanals]

Both the Euro and GFS do suggest we might have the potential for light snow Monday afternoon especially north of I 70

[stormtracker]

20 minutes ago, Ji said:

Most of the fun of tracking is model runs and its been horrendous for us

 

15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Seems to be consensus NE of us but our area changes every run it feels like. My final call for my backyard is 0.9"

 

12 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Yeah, not ours…good luck north 

Yeah. I think we’re kinda on the cooked side, that’s why I’ve been deflated the last 20 hours or so.  

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

 

 

Yeah. I think we’re kinda on the cooked side, that’s why I’ve been deflated the last 20 hours or so.  

Let's see if my wife is right in that im always wrong.

[Ji]

Yeah. I think we’re kinda on the cooked side, that’s why I’ve been deflated the last 20 hours or so.  

Wait, did you move to the western burbs?

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah. I think we’re kinda on the cooked side, that’s why I’ve been deflated the last 20 hours or so.  

NWS has DC at 2”. I’m bummed that the jackpot zone will so clearly not be here, but I feel much better here than I would in Loudoun - no offense. I don’t think we’re cooked. Might change my mind in a few hours though 

[Weather Will]

WB 17Z HRRR at HR 18

[pazzo83]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Let's goooo clouds.  Keep the temps as low as possible.  

looks like 40-41 is where we're at here.

[eddygeeme]

4 hours ago, batmanbrad said:

That 3.5" marker over central MoCo is just about on top of where I live (Gaithersburg, near Laytonsville), I'll take that.

Just up the road from you in Germantown on Ridge Road heading to Clarksburg/Damascus we're a little closer to the darker blues. Hoping for some higher end IMBY.

[PrinceFrederickWx]

47 and sun IMBY. Euro's gonna be right for me. 

[Weather Will]

If I get an inch or two December gets a solid B or B plus grade from me.  So many Decembers are just warm and everyone is waiting for mid January.  Will get an A from me if it snows again before NY.

i don't get upset if I get 2 inches and someone else gets 6 inches. What gets me down is when I get an inch of rain or cold cirrus and 50 miles away someone is getting pounded.

[MDScienceTeacher]

1 hour ago, The Dude said:

life threatening or damaging combination of snow and/or ice accumulation with wind.

Yeah I have seen this for snow squalls situations where they are only expecting 2-4 inches

[bncho]

42 for a high. Still below average but it feels kinda warm

[aldie 22]

37 here