12/14: Sunday funday? Will the south win again?

[MN Transplant]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Love the euro for MBY

Forget north/south, it is 95 vs everyone else

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Switch to wxmodels haha 

I'm pretty loyal to WxBell's UI - especially on mobile - but it does tempt me. Tomer Berg also at this point has almost everything for free so if I was smarter I'd just switch to that.

[stormtracker]

Funny how it's literally an I-95 special on the models.   Gonna be not so funny when it rug pulls like 6 hours before go time.  

[bncho]

I pay $30 a month for WeatherBELL for it not to load.

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Forget north/south, it is 95 vs everyone else

Someone is going to get the goods this weekend, but with such a narrow stripe, there’s no consolation prize. 

[baltosquid]

Speaking of things you may not need to pay for… DESI is cool and has the national blend of models. The drawback is it is a demanding web page.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

I pay $30 a month for WeatherBELL for it not to load.

Think it’s 15 for wxmodels 

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pivotal not as generous to everyone.

This 

[T. August]

EPS essentially identical to 6z, if anything came a hair south. Obviously this close in ensembles aren’t gonna jump around but nice to see.

[Eskimo Joe]

33 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Euro holds blasts dc to Baltimore 3-6”

12z Euro is a solid 2" - 4" with isolated amounts to 5" for folks east of US 15 & north of US 50. It's a weekend event, and the temps crash behind the storm. Also, we're under 72 hours now. Where do I sign?

[yoda]

Oh, ok then 

 

Zone Forecast Product
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1256 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

DCZ001-112100-
District of Columbia-
Including the city of Washington
1256 PM EST Thu Dec 11 2025

.THIS AFTERNOON...Sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds 10 to
15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.
.TONIGHT...Mostly clear in the evening, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. West winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the upper 30s. West winds around
5 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming
mostly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s. Light and variable winds.
.SATURDAY...Partly sunny in the morning, then becoming mostly
cloudy. Highs in the mid 40s. Southwest winds around 5 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Lows in the
mid 20s. Chance of snow 90 percent.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs
around 30.

[Solution Man]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z Euro is a solid 2" - 4" with isolated amounts to 5" for folks east of US 15 & north of US 50. It's a weekend event, and the temps crash behind the storm. Also, we're under 72 hours now. Where do I sign?

[dailylurker]

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Funny how it's literally an I-95 special on the models.   Gonna be not so funny when it rug pulls like 6 hours before go time.  

Or does nuts and we get 8-10 across the DC area through the lowlands lol

[NorthArlington101]

14 minutes ago, T. August said:

EPS essentially identical to 6z, if anything came a hair south. Obviously this close in ensembles aren’t gonna jump around but nice to see.

Yep - definitely a hold. EURO itself is an outlier to its outlier members with how snowy it is but nice to have it in the range of outcomes.

12z EPS mean - the median is essentially identical.

12z EPS 90th percentile

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gotta keep an eye on the exact location and timing of phasing that occurs with the energy associated with the vorticity lobe. 12z CMC has it further west/interacts sooner than the 0z run. Pretty big change there, thus more amped/ warmer/norther.

 

The other thing to keep an eye on is the location of the RR entrance region of the jet streak. It shifts a bit from run to run and will be a factor in determining where the zone of best ascent(heavier precip) will be located.

 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The other thing to keep an eye on is the location of the RR entrance region of the jet streak. It shifts a bit from run to run and will be a factor in determining where the zone of best ascent(heavier precip) will be located.

 

You're 100% correct on what the significant influences will be here.  The issue is, none of these factors are things the guidance can possibly nail down to the exact mile at any significant lead time.  This is essentially a meso scale event where nailing features to within a few miles becomes critical and that won't be possible until maybe even inside 24 hours if not nowcast.  

[dailylurker]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The other thing to keep an eye on is the location of the RR entrance region of the jet streak. It shifts a bit from run to run and will be a factor in determining where the zone of best ascent(heavier precip) will be located.

 

These type storms can also boom over a small area i assume. Nov 11th 1987 have any similarities to this? Not saying that will happen with this. Just curious. 

[winter_warlock]

44 minutes ago, bncho said:

I pay $30 a month for WeatherBELL for it not to load.

 Actually i pay  29.99 not 30 lol

[CAPE]

Just now, dailylurker said:

These type storms can also boom over a small area i assume. Nov 11th 1987 have any similarities to this? Not saying that will happen with this. Just curious. 

That was associated with a strong mid level low iirc, but yes the mechanism for strong lift was there over a relatively localized area. This wont be near the magnitude and even smaller in scale it appears.

[adelphi_sky]

This storm is still so far away. I'd feel better if it was Sunday morning. lol. Hoping it trends higher. Remarkable hold for the last few runs.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, adelphi_sky said:

This storm is still so far away. I'd feel better if it was Sunday morning. lol. Hoping it trends higher. Remarkable hold for the last few runs.

It’s like 60hrs out and starts Saturday night it’s not that far it’s like two and a half days. 

[adelphi_sky]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s like 60hrs out and starts Saturday night it’s not that far it’s like two and a half days. 

I know but with such a narrow band of precipitation, still enough time to shift. someone into misery or into snow heaven. 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s like 60hrs out and starts Saturday night it’s not that far it’s like two and a half days. 

From what I can gather from CAPE and Psu's posts...for this particular kind of setups 60 hours is far away. Best not to get any hopes up on anything given the balancing act going on. I'm counting it as partial fantasy until we get to at least Saturday.

[Interstate]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

I am going to sue weatherbell....why am im paying this money for a models that are delayed

Not to mention you can all models/runs for free on Pivotal Weather beta site.

[bncho]

NWS is very agressive:

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

NWS is very agressive:

Clearly not leaning on gfs with their thoughts since they have the 1” line back to I-81. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

NWS is very agressive:

Love the tiny 4" jackpot for Annapolis

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

It’s like 60hrs out and starts Saturday night it’s not that far it’s like two and a half days. 

 

29 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

From what I can gather from CAPE and Psu's posts...for this particular kind of setups 60 hours is far away. Best not to get any hopes up on anything given the balancing act going on. I'm counting it as partial fantasy until we get to at least Saturday.

For this type of event 60 hours might as well be 300. We’re talking about nailing down a very localized meso band. That’s like expecting the morels to get a line of thunderstorms correct from 60 hours. Juts getting typical Nina chaotic northern stream waves right outside 48 hours is hard enough. This is almost impossible.

This isn’t a split flow Nino pattern where nailing STJ systems at long leads is a legit thing. The best analog in anyone’s set was 2014 and remember in that season almost none of the snows were depicted well outside 48 hours. The times it looked like snow from day 5 typically busted and almost all the snows that winter looked ambiguous at best from 72 hours out and trended into something inside that range. 
 

edit: best analog meaning the snowiest and one we hope ends up correct I’m not saying this is a 2014 clone coming.  But I did incorporate some ideas from that winter into my expectations for this season. So far we’ve just been a bit unlucky. But every year is different. That year we got lucky and a lot of those waves hit us. A similar pattern won’t necessarily produce as good of results. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

I pay $30 a month for WeatherBELL for it not to load.

Now model forecasting is not in this mechanical vein although models in general do not make predictions nor forecasts but rather examples. They “guide” us.  Where they guide us to is unknown.

Whether it’s mechanical or poor information  distribution, all those paying  for models should be up in arms and in stern contact  with the providers 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Latest Srefs snowfall fwiw. Seems reasonable for the Srefs.