Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

That N trend still has a hundred or so miles to go imo. I wonder if sleet makes it into the DC metro area. 

[paweather]

CMC Monster Hit!

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Monster GFS run!

Long duration nearly 24 hour event that starts Sunday am & ends Monday am. Height of the storm looks to be Sunday late afternoon & evening. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

Long duration nearly 24 hour event that starts Sunday am & ends Monday am. Height of the storm looks to be Sunday late afternoon & evening. 

0z GFS snow!

[Ruin]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Long duration nearly 24 hour event that starts Sunday am & ends Monday am. Height of the storm looks to be Sunday late afternoon & evening. 

the time frame for this storm keeps bouncing around first sat to early mon then sun to tuesday morning now sunday to early am mon? not only the storm changing time frame the long duration went form almost 2 days to 1? are models having a hard to with how fast or slow? the precip shield still looks just as big thats why im confused 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

CMC Monster Hit!

It gets sleet really close to the PA border. I have read here in those huge 90s storms it sleeted here during them too. 

[paweather]

1 minute ago, canderson said:

It gets sleet really close to the PA border. I have read here in those huge 90s storms it sleeted here during them too. 

Yep maybe some sleet for a period of time but it should be minimal

[Blizzard of 93]

10 minutes ago, paweather said:

CMC Monster Hit!

Indeed!

[MillvilleWx]

Man, it could be a beautiful sight around here if the CMC/UKMet come to fruition. I am actually on vacation and willing to travel if need be to get into the jackpot. Anyone care to host a meteorologist? I can cook really well, clean up after myself, and I’m a big fan of geeking out over snowstorms  

[CarlislePaWx]

Hey Guys...

Take a look at this.  These are the forecast temperatures at 7AM Tuesday morning.  Some of these temps have to be historical.  Atlanta is -18 F degrees.  Nearly all of Kentucky and Tennessee is between -10 and -20 degrees.  Places like Atlanta are likely going to experience a crippling ice storm, along with a ton of locations in the deep south.  What if these people lose power during the ice storm and then have temperatures near 20 below zero before power is restored?  I'm not trying to throw cold water (sorry for the poor pun) on this upcoming event.  Up here regardless of the final snow totals, we will likely not lose power because of how light weight the powder is when the entire storm snows with temps in the low teens start to finish.  Say some prayers for all of them.

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Man, it could be a beautiful sight around here if the CMC/UKMet come to fruition. I am actually on vacation and willing to travel if need be to get into the jackpot. Anyone care to host a meteorologist? I can cook really well, clean up after myself, and I’m a big fan of geeking out over snowstorms  

Talk to Horst. At this point you can give him some advice.

Always appreciate you coming into our thread to share. There aren't many on the entire board that I listen to and respect more than you. 

[Itstrainingtime]

1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said:

Hey Guys...

Take a look at this.  These are the forecast temperatures at 7AM Tuesday morning.  Some of these temps have to be historical.  Atlanta is -18 F degrees.  Nearly all of Kentucky is between -10 and -20 degrees.  Places like Atlanta are likely going to experience a crippling ice storm, along with a ton of locations in the deep south.  What if these people lose power during the ice storm and then have temperatures near 20 below zero before power is restored?  I'm not trying to throw cold water on this upcoming event.  Up here regardless of the final snow totals, we will likely not lose power because of how light weight the powder is when the entire storm snows with temps in the low teens start to finish.  Say some prayers for all of them.

That's a sobering reminder of what this setup could create. It's a scary thought for sure.

[CarlislePaWx]

Here in Carlisle (at 12:25am) my projected low temp of zero degrees upcoming around dawn is getting really close.  I'm now down to +4.3 degrees F.  I've been as low as +3.9 F.  Temps with radiation nearly always fluctuate up and down.  

[Blizzard of 93]

Latest NBM is now bringing nearly 1 foot to the LSV.

[Blizzard of 93]

0z Euro is amped with a ton of precip for southern PA. 
Waiting for snow maps…

Where do I sign for over 1 inch of precip!

[paweather5]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

0z Euro is amped with a ton of precip for southern PA. 
Waiting for snow maps…

Where do I sign for over 1 inch of precip!

Haha I was wondering who would be up checking out the Euro. Ukie Dropped 20 inches again for central PA.

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

That N trend still has a hundred or so miles to go imo. I wonder if sleet makes it into the DC metro area. 

Possibly, I certainly think further down in VA may mix with this. I’ve not really sweated us missing out if the phasing scenario came to fruition, because of the pattern setup as I alluded to yesterday. 500mb ridge axis is west along the Pac Coast (classic for C-PA is Boise, ID ridge axis), height’s build in the SE US ahead of this system. Still relatively progressive though even with the phase, so I think that and the very anomalous cold air mass in place are what make this potential event go. A more typical cold airmass in place probably would have us under the gun for yet another messy winter storm that we’ve had too many of the last several years. 

Models have been more consistently showing some surface low reflection west of the Apps as well, which given the depth of the cold air mass and strong high pressure in place should be a good thing for us in terms of enhancing the snowfall across all of PA. Most of our classic big ones (96, 03, etc) have that signature. Comparison wise it’s tough, no storm is ever the same. Some shades of 2003, but that one didn’t have the prolific ice/snow zone the whole way back to Texas that this one’s forecast to have. The Baja low component of this reminds me of 2010, but this is a way colder setup and probably a weaker low that will keep moving. Antecedent cold air mass comparable to 1996 or even colder, but that was a much more amplified 500mb setup in the classic positioning. I personally don’t think the top end accum potential is going to get near any of those 3 in the Mid-Atlantic/PA but we’re not in NAM range yet haha. The overall impact and the sheer area of the US that is going to get significant snow/ice out of this though, is going to be biggest story with this. 

[paweather5]

[CarlislePaWx]

4 minutes ago, paweather5 said:

Wow...Do you see what just happened with this run vs. the 18z?  The southern extent of the 12"+ line has moved over 150 miles north from the VA/NC line to now central Virginia.  We definitely don't want much more north trend.  The LSV is now close to some of the max numbers that were previously down in northern VA.  Definitely will be interesting to see how the axis of heaviest continues to evolve over the next 72 hours.

[MAG5035]

0z Euro ensembles continue to look better for heavier snows in PA, probs for 6”+ in a 24 hour period (at just the 10:1) are 80% or higher for about the southern third of the state now.

0z Euro ensemble snowfall mean

 

[Voyager]

Cracked the zero mark sometime overnight. Now sitting at -2.9 in my backyard. At my colder location shop in Andreas, southeast of here it's -9.4

[Festus]

Low of -2 so far.  No shot at the record as today marks the lowest recorded temp at Millersville: -18 in 1994.  I'm usually half decent at guessing the temperature based on feel but I think my meter bottoms out at around 10.  Anything lower just gets labelled as effing cold and that's that.

[Voyager]

6z GFS holds serve...

Considering the high ratios this one should have, I think the Kuchera map is the right way to go.

[NepaJames8602]

-6 here in the Poconos as I leave for work. Probably will drop a degree or two yet. Deep winter out there.

[mahantango#1]

-2 this morning.

[anotherman]

6Z Euro

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 6 at the house and 0 through the rurals. Man, if you thought my pants were tight yesterday morning, whew baby these overnight runs. Well, I’ve officially moved from worried too far south to worried too far north ha. But seriously, what a spot we sit in here in the LSV. Now we just need to survive another 96 hours of windshield wiper model runs. Steady as she goes. Steady. 

[pawatch]

-1 this morning here. 
So you got to like where the models are trending. As Mag mentioned earlier ratios is going to be higher than 10/1

 

BTW the storm we’re dealing with is Fern  

Only the TWC 

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Low of 6 at the house and 0 through the rurals. Man, if you thought my pants were tight yesterday morning, whew baby these overnight runs. Well, I’ve officially moved from worried too far south to worried too far north ha. But seriously, what a spot we sit in here in the LSV. Now we just need to survive another 96 hours of windshield wiper model runs. Steady as she goes. Steady. 

@Eskimo Joe just posted WPC's thoughts on the north trend we're seeing in the MA thread. It's worth a read.

Wind shift here in Cocoa Beach last evening. 47 yesterday morning, it's 65 currently. Off to Ft. Lauderdale this morning and with that I'll have highs in the 80s the next several days.

[Superstorm]

Euro is a beat down, and all snow.