Winter 2025-26 Short Range Discussion

[roardog]

1 hour ago, frostfern said:

What happened to lake effect?  Warm lake temps going to waste.  Bunch of weak garbage clippers.

I don’t think the lake temps are even above normal anymore. 

[mimillman]

Trend this evening has been to narrow the band of heavier precip but maintain it for longer through northern Illinois / southern WI. GFS is now showing the same 

[cyclone77]

Wagons north on the 00z guidance.  Also seem to be much drier than previous model cycles for the northwestern half of Iowa.  The Des Moines office are probably pulling their hair out this evening.

I'd probably favor a 1-3" call for the QC.  2-4" up along the 20 corridor in Iowa.  

[frostfern]

6 hours ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Different definitions of garbage I guess  2-3 isnt bad in my backyard. Especially snow on top of snow

Mainly just not getting any lake enhancement + sloppy drizzly sub 1-inch WAA sludge.

It’s early, but below normal temp days with sunshine and not a flurry to be found is not normal climo for here.  If it’s in the 20s there should be some fluff in the air at times.

I was just hopeful this was going to be a year where the snowpack can build.  

[A-L-E-K]

23 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

Going with a bullish 2.5 on the duster. 

$$$

[Brian D]

Thinking 8-12" potential along the shore with these 2 classic Alberta clippers. Lake enhancement will really help here, especially for the higher terrain with the 2nd one, which is pretty strong. Track could change some, tho, making a big difference. The boundary between the 2 may allow for some LES banding to develop Tues between systems. Something to watch.

[Chambana]

Tail end of next week looks bitterly cold. Definitely something to monitor in the coming days.

[RogueWaves]

Scoring today:

[sbnwx85]

7 hours ago, Chambana said:

Tail end of next week looks bitterly cold. Definitely something to monitor in the coming days.

Could crank the lake effect machine in these parts big time

[Chicago Storm]

I'm only going to pay attention to Chicago Storm started threads this season. Have to acknowledge there's an element of magic in all of this. 

[Chicago Storm]

Stacking pretty nicely.  Let's keep it going!

[Spartman]

00z Euro hinting a juicy clipper for Friday.

The 00z GFS isn't buying it.

 

[A-L-E-K]

gonna get pretty grody here after the mid week rainer/brief warmup

hopefully we can get some of the lake week/weekend dusters to trend up with time

[Stevo6899]

Looks like the gfs is on its own delivering a snowstorm to detroit midweek.

[A-L-E-K]

the chicago rainer detroit snow probably a p rare bird

[nvck]

6z HRRR way, way north with the Wednesday system, and about 10mb deeper, faster than any other model

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Classic GFS v Euro battle for the Tue/Wed system here. Either 4-6” of snow or 34 and rain. 

[Stebo]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Looks like the gfs is on its own delivering a snowstorm to detroit midweek.

GFS has the Canadian models agreeing with it, the euro is a bit north but would still hit the northern suburbs, the mesoscale models like the NAM and HRRR are the ones far to the north.

[Stebo]

45 minutes ago, nvck said:

6z HRRR way, way north with the Wednesday system, and about 10mb deeper, faster than any other model

Yeah I am doubting a 973mb low through the straits.

[Stebo]

Obviously the HRRR came south and weaker at 12z, that was to be expected, the NAMs also came south some as well with the snow shield.

[Frog Town]

It appears with the TPV sitting in southern Canada, these things ultimately trend south.