12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

cant wait for my cold rain

Well as long as ur looking forward to it

[87storms]

This storm will be a hint as to where the new r/s line is setting up. Seems like the dividing line has shifted from immediate burbs west of 95 to further out towards rt15 and 70 the last few years. Also, I have no idea what I’m talking about, but what I do know is not getting any snow from this system with a fresh, albeit transient, cold air mass in place would be pretty lame.

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This storm will be a hint as to where the new r/s line is setting up. Seems like the dividing line has shifted from immediate burbs west of 95 to further out towards rt15 and 70 the last few years. Also, I have no idea what I’m talking about, but what I do know is not getting any snow from this system with a fresh, albeit transient, cold air mass in place would be pretty lame.

Why? This is Dec 2nd...that's really early in the season where even 20 years ago it took more to snow in this part of the calendar than later--that part isn't new.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why? This is Dec 2nd...that's really early in the season where even 20 years ago it took more to snow in this part of the calendar than later--that part isn't new.

That’s not that early, especially for the n/w burbs. In 3 months it’ll be March lol.

[Terpeast]

16 minutes ago, 87storms said:

This storm will be a hint as to where the new r/s line is setting up. Seems like the dividing line has shifted from immediate burbs west of 95 to further out towards rt15 and 70 the last few years. Also, I have no idea what I’m talking about, but what I do know is not getting any snow from this system with a fresh, albeit transient, cold air mass in place would be pretty lame.

I think you're good for an inch+

[Interstate]

19 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That’s not that early, especially for the n/w burbs. In 3 months it’ll be March lol.

Come on. It is early for anyone that is east of Garrett county. 

[MillvilleWx]

20 minutes ago, 87storms said:

That’s not that early, especially for the n/w burbs. In 3 months it’ll be March lol.

Actually, this is still considered early for the region for appreciable snowfall. FDK average in December is still only like 3-4" with peak snow climo opening end of the month. 

We have 1-2" forecast for your area right now, so it should look pretty in those parts come Tuesday morning. I'll be out and about up towards the PA line enjoying the snowfall. Thinking of where to post up. Want to get a nice breakfast at a diner and watch the snow fall  

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Actually, this is still considered early for the region for appreciable snowfall. FDK average in December is still only like 3-4" with peak snow climo opening end of the month. 

We have 1-2" forecast for your area right now, so it should look pretty in those parts come Tuesday morning. I'll be out and about up towards the PA line enjoying the snowfall. Thinking of where to post up. Want to get a nice breakfast at a diner and watch the snow fall  

Go to my favorite, the Starlight Diner in Hanover. It's right on 94 (Route 30 in MD becomes 94 in PA.) Food is decent and prices are great.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Go to my favorite, the Starlight Diner in Hanover. It's right on 94 (Route 30 in MD becomes 94 in PA.) Food is decent and prices are great.

I am making a note of that right now!! If the radar looks good there, I will 100% post up right there. Anyone is welcome to join if they please too! 

[ravensrule]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I think you're good for an inch+

I have seen him in the sauna, i would strongly disagree. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am making a note of that right now!! If the radar looks good there, I will 100% post up right there. Anyone is welcome to join if they please too! 

There is a breakfast place in Manchester called Dutch Corner.  Christmas Tree Park a few blocks up the road might be a nice place for a Jebwalk also. If you end up in this area. 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

There is a breakfast place in Manchester called Dutch Corner.  Christmas Tree Park a few blocks up the road might be a nice place for a Jebwalk also. If you end up in this area. 

Oh wow, thanks! I will be in that area from Waynesboro over to your hood, so somewhere in there I will be stopping. Always great to have options. Thanks to you and Mitch for the suggestions!

[TSSN+]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Go to my favorite, the Starlight Diner in Hanover. It's right on 94 (Route 30 in MD becomes 94 in PA.) Food is decent and prices are great.

Like 5-6 mins from my place. 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am making a note of that right now!! If the radar looks good there, I will 100% post up right there. Anyone is welcome to join if they please too! 

Im thinking about staying in Thurmont tomorrow night so I can get an extra early start in the Catoctins Tuesday morning. I'm thinking up at 1500' and above should get 2-3". Maybe 3-5" on the highest trails. 

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

Im thinking about staying in Thurmont tomorrow night so I can get an extra early start in the Catoctins Tuesday morning. I'm thinking up at 1500' and above should get 2-3". Maybe 3-5" on the highest trails. 

Avoid the motel 8. 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Avoid the motel 8. 

I was just looking at that. 52$ a night. What could go wrong lol

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I was just looking at that. 52$ a night. What could go wrong lol

Probably can get company for your night for less than that!

[Voyager]

4 hours ago, dailylurker said:

I live at like sea level and it's basically still fall here in the lowlands. But whatever lol. I'm off work until March 1. I'll be out in the Catoctins at daybreak gearing up for a hike up to 1800'. 

As a truck driver, I can say that you're a lucky person. In my profession, I wish I could be off until March 1. I would enjoy snow storms much more with a winter layoff.

[WEATHER53]

3 hours ago, stormtracker said:

He’s gonna be pretty bad this season. 
 

Anyway, you, mappy, Will and mitchnick really are one of the few here who should be vested in this.  I lost complete interest after one day last week.  

Get ready for 5th and 6th !

[Weather Will]

NAM is still a no go....worrisome because I don't remember getting a storm when it showed nothing.... running 5 degrees warmer at the surface compared to the globals.  Upper air temps are also warmer.

[SnowenOutThere]

24 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Im thinking about staying in Thurmont tomorrow night so I can get an extra early start in the Catoctins Tuesday morning. I'm thinking up at 1500' and above should get 2-3". Maybe 3-5" on the highest trails. 

This setup reminds me a bit of a hike I went on in the Catoctins last November around this time. Here is a link to the hike I went on which tried to maximize the amount of time I would stay at high elevation while reducing the amount of high elevation road I had to travel up. There's a very long stretch of +1500 feet and you get to start down at 800ft and hike up into it which was awesome. Let me know if you want more details and the link to the hike is here: https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-cat-rock-yellow-trail-to-catoctin-blue-trail-7b13b22?u=i&sh=vrjjqd

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z RDPS also ticked north...

[wxmeddler]

Given the near 0c temps up to 700mb. The guidance on the P-Type is going to be all over the place up until precip time. Things I would focus on now is just amount and timing of saturation. "Wintery Mix" between I-95 and US340/US15 is what I'd go with.

Good news at this point the that the chance of a whiff or bust is pretty low.

[mitchnick]

Nam 3k much closer to the "snowier" models than the 12k fwiw.

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, wxmeddler said:

Given the near 0c temps up to 700mb. The guidance on the P-Type is going to be all over the place up until precip time. Things I would focus on now is just amount and timing of saturation. "Wintery Mix" between I-95 and US340/US15 is what I'd go with.

This....
 

Models are going to struggle with this aspect and the near isothermal layer between sfc-700mb is going to be tough to resolve and likely will be a nowcast situation. Heavier precip in the onset will help to mitigate the WAA regime within the PBL, so intensity will play a pretty big role in this for Central MD along and south of the area you mentioned. Areas up near the M/D with more elevation will likely stay snow longer, as is customary. This is a textbook case of climo likely being the hedge when it comes to the forecast. 

[dailylurker]

13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This setup reminds me a bit of a hike I went on in the Catoctins last November around this time. Here is a link to the hike I went on which tried to maximize the amount of time I would stay at high elevation while reducing the amount of high elevation road I had to travel up. There's a very long stretch of +1500 feet and you get to start down at 800ft and hike up into it which was awesome. Let me know if you want more details and the link to the hike is here: https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-cat-rock-yellow-trail-to-catoctin-blue-trail-7b13b22?u=i&sh=vrjjqd

I just did that hike a couple weeks ago. It was awesome. That's the area I want to check out again. Where's a good high elevation place to stay?

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I just did that hike a couple weeks ago. It was awesome. That's the are I want to head. Where's a good high elevation place to stay?

If you're also trying to just sit down and relax a bit instead of hiking the whole time then that trail isn't super great as theres no campsites or anything off it. Instead I would recommend https://www.alltrails.com/explore/recording/afternoon-hike-at-black-rock-via-the-appalachian-trail-7f8dfc1 (Black Rock Via Appalachian trail) as its both right off route 70 which is nice and the Annapolis rock outlook has picnic tables nearby (additionally Black rock outlook has a overhang you can stay under which is sheltered). 

[TSSN+]

Gfs still rocking along for the northern crew. I’ll take my 4-6” and run. 

[stormtracker]

44 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I was just looking at that. 52$ a night. What could go wrong lol

That’s the hourly rate.