First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[dryslot]

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted,

1236 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  9 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine
  and central, northern, and southern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...A snowstorm will bring plowable snow to the region with
  a period of moderate travel impacts expected. Periods of moderate
  snow and low visibility will be the biggest hazards. The potential
  exists for snowbands that will bring periods of locally heavy
  snowfall, which will lead to rapid snow accumulations and
  extremely dangerous travel conditions. Periods of moderate and
  heavy snow will combine with low visibility to create dangerous
  driving conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can
be obtained by going to newengland511.org

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I just hit the "Switch to Beta" on Pivotal... wow.  Much better.  Any downsides to it?

[Great Snow 1717]

35 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah right.  Because the pattern ahead is offering so much opportunity . This one hurts 

When a hobby is impacting personal wellbeing it is time to find another hobby...

 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted.

I still don't think the morning commute will be bad...

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I just hit the "Switch to Beta" on Pivotal... wow.  Much better.  Any downsides to it?

It’s great 

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I still don't think the morning commute will be bad...

It looks to get going late morning here but that late afternoon commute will be a bitch i believe.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, dryslot said:

It looks to get going late morning here but that late afternoon commute will be a bitch i believe.

I agree... in the Warning, they mention the morning commute

[dryslot]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

I agree... in the Warning, they mention the morning commute

Start time is sooner down your way i would think.

[George001]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Dont be depressed Kev, There will be more chances, with a decent pattern setting in. 

That’s the right way to look at it. We have more storm threats ahead of this. This one looks like it’s going to be for northern areas.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dude it’s way too far south. It’s nowhere near it

Yeah that’s further SE than pivotal by a decent amount. Sv is awful. 

[SouthCoastMA]

We've seen this scenario time and again the past several winters. The euro being the coldest solution/outlier  3-4 days out then slowly trends to other guidance,  It could be anecdotal but just seems to have a cold bias up here in that mid range. In the past it wouldn't budge much while the other models trend much colder. Its just my perception, and may not reflect its overall ability, or even reality. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I still don't think the morning commute will be bad...

One more tick warmer and the evening commute will be fine too across even interior SNE north of pike. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Nah...  we're getting gypped late, and as is typical ... that is when the models put out a menagerie of bum pump near misses and if-onlys.  

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well to be fair…2/2 is 8 plus weeks away, and at that point you have a good 4-6 weeks left to go…so this is just in its infancy as we all know.  A costing to n inch or two is a win on 12/2. 

Imo it’s only a win if there’s measurable, so that costing better be decent.

But yeah, at least we have something, and a decent pattern actually taking shape. Early December is hard with a retreating high. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

One more tick warmer and the evening commute will be fine too across even interior SNE north of pike. 

The flash freeze will be fun

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

We've seen this scenario time and again the past several winters. The euro being the coldest solution/outlier  3-4 days out then slowly trends to other guidance,  It could be anecdotal but just seems to have a cold bias up here in that mid range. In the past it wouldn't budge much while the other models trend much colder. 

It’s def had a cold bias in the medium range the last few years. It especially does when we’re talking these SWFE or WAA type storms. The old euro actually had a slight warm bias in the medium range but it was still the best model by a lot. 

[weatherwiz]

Overall profile is a bit toowarm but GFS bufkit does flip BOS to a couple hour period of heavy snow during the evening on the backside...even drops a quick inch or two. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Albany finally pulled the trigger, 7-11"

Sent from my SM-S166V using Tapatalk

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

One more tick warmer and the evening commute will be fine too across even interior SNE north of pike. 

It's really the warmth that's ticking up on the models rather than the precip.  There have not been major changes on those.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wunderground's franken model still has me getting 8-12" then 1-3".    tossed

[Lava Rock]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted,

1236 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  9 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine
  and central, northern, and southern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...A snowstorm will bring plowable snow to the region with
  a period of moderate travel impacts expected. Periods of moderate
  snow and low visibility will be the biggest hazards. The potential
  exists for snowbands that will bring periods of locally heavy
  snowfall, which will lead to rapid snow accumulations and
  extremely dangerous travel conditions. Periods of moderate and
  heavy snow will combine with low visibility to create dangerous
  driving conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can
be obtained by going to newengland511.org

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

thinking weds morning instead of tomorrow night to snowblow. 

[FXWX]

24 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Beyond the NW hills that is

It's a tough forecast for NW CT... crazy snow gradient possible

 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

We've seen this scenario time and again the past several winters. The euro being the coldest solution/outlier  3-4 days out then slowly trends to other guidance,  It could be anecdotal but just seems to have a cold bias up here in that mid range. In the past it wouldn't budge much while the other models trend much colder. It’s just my perception, and may not reflect its overall ability, or even reality. 

 I can’t speak for the interior, but I knew the set up was garbage for us days ago. You don’t even have to dive into details, just look at old school pattern recognition. This time of year, with the retreating high, and the 925 0C line already punching into SNE on South winds? How is that gonna produce snow anywhere near the coast?
 

That’s what I was trying to try Brett yesterday when he was referring to the euro. Even those 925 temps weren’t conducive for us. I’ll let you know when the set up actually gets me excited.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

thinking weds morning instead of tomorrow night to snowblow. 

It will be done by 3am or so so yes, Weds morning.

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Overall profile is a bit toowarm but GFS bufkit does flip BOS to a couple hour period of heavy snow during the evening on the backside...even drops a quick inch or two. 

check the NAM for that ...

I think the Euro's hinting.

Seems to be a CCB feature's being toyed with there.  

The other aspect that's head scratching a bit.  The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth overtop - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bullcrap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  interesting

 

[mahk_webstah]

38 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Euro may try to get Kevin a few inches on the backside

I won’t do what should be done with this post

[weatherwiz]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

check the NAM for that ...

I think the Euro's hinting.

Seems to be a CCB feature's being toyed with there.  

The other aspect that's head scratching a bit.  The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth overtop - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bullcrap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  interesting

 

yup...even NAM bufkit has it too. Definitely something to watch. Could have some impact for the evening, particularly later evening commute but could make for a slew of delays out of BOS in the evening. 

[Fozz]

26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I just hit the "Switch to Beta" on Pivotal... wow.  Much better.  Any downsides to it?

I was just looking yesterday at why Pivotal Weather is so unfriendly for mobile devices. Turned out that their Beta feature basically solves the problem and works well enough.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yup...even NAM bufkit has it too. Definitely something to watch. Could have some impact for the evening, particularly later evening commute but could make for a slew of delays out of BOS in the evening. 

flash freeze potential.   warms to 35 after a matting of snow and failed icing period, then as the low gets abeam of RI the 32 F isotherm collapses SE abruptly and it's -d(30) F  jack knifin' fun and joy on the highways.

I'm starting to suspect that the the sfc isn't going above freezing N of a White Plains/HFD/ORH/BED-PSM line tho. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

flash freeze potential.   warms to 35 after a matting of snow and failed icing period, then as the low gets abeam of RI the 32 F isotherm collapses SE abruptly and it's -d(30) F  jack knifin' fun and joy on the highways.

I'm starting to suspect that the the sfc isn't going above freezing N of a White Plains/HFD/ORH/BED-PSM line tho. 

Yeah you may see most of those locals only get to like 33F or so. I always think a true flash freeze is overrated around here, but tomorrow is interesting. It will get down into the 20's tonight so these paved surfaces will get cold. I guess we'll see what kind of treatments are applied, but with precipitation falling much of the day and then dropping below freezing through the evening and back into the 20's...things could slick up quick if not treated.