Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    18,368
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Patruthseaker
    Newest Member
    Patruthseaker
    Joined

First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season


Baroclinic Zone
 Share

Recommended Posts

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted,

1236 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  9 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine
  and central, northern, and southern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...A snowstorm will bring plowable snow to the region with
  a period of moderate travel impacts expected. Periods of moderate
  snow and low visibility will be the biggest hazards. The potential
  exists for snowbands that will bring periods of locally heavy
  snowfall, which will lead to rapid snow accumulations and
  extremely dangerous travel conditions. Periods of moderate and
  heavy snow will combine with low visibility to create dangerous
  driving conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can
be obtained by going to newengland511.org

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Dont be depressed Kev, There will be more chances, with a decent pattern setting in. 

That’s the right way to look at it. We have more storm threats ahead of this. This one looks like it’s going to be for northern areas.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We've seen this scenario time and again the past several winters. The euro being the coldest solution/outlier  3-4 days out then slowly trends to other guidance,  It could be anecdotal but just seems to have a cold bias up here in that mid range. In the past it wouldn't budge much while the other models trend much colder. Its just my perception, and may not reflect its overall ability, or even reality. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I still don't think the morning commute will be bad...

One more tick warmer and the evening commute will be fine too across even interior SNE north of pike. 

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well to be fair…2/2 is 8 plus weeks away, and at that point you have a good 4-6 weeks left to go…so this is just in its infancy as we all know.  A costing to n inch or two is a win on 12/2. 

Imo it’s only a win if there’s measurable, so that costing better be decent.

But yeah, at least we have something, and a decent pattern actually taking shape. Early December is hard with a retreating high. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

We've seen this scenario time and again the past several winters. The euro being the coldest solution/outlier  3-4 days out then slowly trends to other guidance,  It could be anecdotal but just seems to have a cold bias up here in that mid range. In the past it wouldn't budge much while the other models trend much colder. 

It’s def had a cold bias in the medium range the last few years. It especially does when we’re talking these SWFE or WAA type storms. The old euro actually had a slight warm bias in the medium range but it was still the best model by a lot. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Winter Storm Warnings hoisted,

1236 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM EST
WEDNESDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 6 and
  9 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of south central, southwest, and western Maine
  and central, northern, and southern New Hampshire.

* WHEN...From 8 AM Tuesday to 4 AM EST Wednesday.

* IMPACTS...A snowstorm will bring plowable snow to the region with
  a period of moderate travel impacts expected. Periods of moderate
  snow and low visibility will be the biggest hazards. The potential
  exists for snowbands that will bring periods of locally heavy
  snowfall, which will lead to rapid snow accumulations and
  extremely dangerous travel conditions. Periods of moderate and
  heavy snow will combine with low visibility to create dangerous
  driving conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the
  Tuesday morning and evening commutes.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions can
be obtained by going to newengland511.org

Persons should delay all travel if possible. If travel is absolutely
necessary, drive with extreme caution and be prepared for sudden
changes in visibility. Leave plenty of room between you and the
motorist ahead of you, and allow extra time to reach your
destination. Avoid sudden braking or acceleration, and be especially
cautious on hills or when making turns. Make sure your car is
winterized and in good working order.

thinking weds morning instead of tomorrow night to snowblow. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

We've seen this scenario time and again the past several winters. The euro being the coldest solution/outlier  3-4 days out then slowly trends to other guidance,  It could be anecdotal but just seems to have a cold bias up here in that mid range. In the past it wouldn't budge much while the other models trend much colder. It’s just my perception, and may not reflect its overall ability, or even reality. 

 I can’t speak for the interior, but I knew the set up was garbage for us days ago. You don’t even have to dive into details, just look at old school pattern recognition. This time of year, with the retreating high, and the 925 0C line already punching into SNE on South winds? How is that gonna produce snow anywhere near the coast?
 

That’s what I was trying to try Brett yesterday when he was referring to the euro. Even those 925 temps weren’t conducive for us. I’ll let you know when the set up actually gets me excited.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Overall profile is a bit toowarm but GFS bufkit does flip BOS to a couple hour period of heavy snow during the evening on the backside...even drops a quick inch or two. 

check the NAM for that ...

I think the Euro's hinting.

Seems to be a CCB feature's being toyed with there.  

The other aspect that's head scratching a bit.  The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth overtop - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bullcrap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  interesting

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

check the NAM for that ...

I think the Euro's hinting.

Seems to be a CCB feature's being toyed with there.  

The other aspect that's head scratching a bit.  The cyclone is going S.  I looked at the 700 mb evolution..it's not clear it closes off enough to fist warmth overtop - appears to stay open.  Yet the 850 does closes S of RI.  I'm getting suspicious of this warm idea coming in late.  Not enough to call bullcrap yet but close. We are advecting in a teens DP air mass. The already tepid sun will be dead to the environment in another 3 hours then tonight until 4 am...   we're likely to get decent rad cooling production.  We may see an environmental negative feed back on temperature and llv thickness.  I tell you, wouldn't shock me if there's an icing band where these guidance are blithely punching a warm 925s into that antecedent, possibly poorly evaluating circumstance.  interesting

 

yup...even NAM bufkit has it too. Definitely something to watch. Could have some impact for the evening, particularly later evening commute but could make for a slew of delays out of BOS in the evening. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I just hit the "Switch to Beta" on Pivotal... wow.  Much better.  Any downsides to it?

I was just looking yesterday at why Pivotal Weather is so unfriendly for mobile devices. Turned out that their Beta feature basically solves the problem and works well enough.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yup...even NAM bufkit has it too. Definitely something to watch. Could have some impact for the evening, particularly later evening commute but could make for a slew of delays out of BOS in the evening. 

flash freeze potential.   warms to 35 after a matting of snow and failed icing period, then as the low gets abeam of RI the 32 F isotherm collapses SE abruptly and it's -d(30) F  jack knifin' fun and joy on the highways.

I'm starting to suspect that the the sfc isn't going above freezing N of a White Plains/HFD/ORH/BED-PSM line tho. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

flash freeze potential.   warms to 35 after a matting of snow and failed icing period, then as the low gets abeam of RI the 32 F isotherm collapses SE abruptly and it's -d(30) F  jack knifin' fun and joy on the highways.

I'm starting to suspect that the the sfc isn't going above freezing N of a White Plains/HFD/ORH/BED-PSM line tho. 

Yeah you may see most of those locals only get to like 33F or so. I always think a true flash freeze is overrated around here, but tomorrow is interesting. It will get down into the 20's tonight so these paved surfaces will get cold. I guess we'll see what kind of treatments are applied, but with precipitation falling much of the day and then dropping below freezing through the evening and back into the 20's...things could slick up quick if not treated. 

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...