First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[dryslot]

The euro is trash, Toss.

[ORH_wxman]

Euro would be nice for interior SE MA. Wonder if Brett can whine his way to a warning event. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Euro would be nice for interior SE MA. Wonder if Brett can whine his way to a warning event. 

As long as I get like 4", I'll be fine...but less than that, I'll probably have an early melt.

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Whooooosh.

You posted it without any caveats, not a mind reader although we can read Scooters prepost

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

You posted it without any caveats, not a mind reader although we can read Scooters prepost

It wasn't a serious post.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As long as I get like 4", I'll be fine...but less than that, I'll probably have an early melt.

Same here.. curious to see if the 18z EPS moves north at all

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As long as I get like 4", I'll be fine...but less than that, I'll probably have an early melt.

if you live in the hilly countryside maybe, but i'm not anticipating more than 1-2" of slop at 150' 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

As long as I get like 4", I'll be fine...but less than that, I'll probably have an early melt.

A 2 to 1 blend in favor of Euro would actually be one of the few ways we get widespread 4-8” amounts across a lot of SNE into CNE. Maybe we’ll actually catch a knife’s edge in our favor this time. Would be nice juju to start the season after the last several years. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro would be nice for interior SE MA. Wonder if Brett can whine his way to a warning event. 

I mean, I’m waiting for it to pull the rug out, and it keeps doubling down 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reason you have this impression is because it's run more often now, which provides more opportunity for error, but it is actually more accurate in the mean.

Hmm wish we lived at 5H. Ye @das throw up qpf mslp temp surface level comparisons 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

if you live in the hilly countryside maybe, but i'm not anticipating more than 1-2" of slop at 150' 

I am.

[Ginx snewx]

Hit that in a heartbeat. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would definitely lose it if I get skunked, and interior se MA has a nice event.

[weatherwiz]

Forecast models haven't gotten worse, what has gotten worse over the last decade is forecasting skill and a large part of  that is due to all of these ridiculous products which have supplemented the actual forecast process. So many convective events in the Plains hyped up because of supercell composite and significant tornado crap, snow maps, etc. It's all run to snow maps, QPF output, etc. which more often than not will not produce an accurate assessment and then when they don't verify, its cry and blame models rather than taking personal responsibility. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Forecast models haven't gotten worse, what has gotten worse over the last decade is forecasting skill and a large part of  that is due to all of these ridiculous products which have supplemented the actual forecast process. So many convective events in the Plains hyped up because of supercell composite and significant tornado crap, snow maps, etc. It's all run to snow maps, QPF output, etc. which more often than not will not produce an accurate assessment and then when they don't verify, its cry and blame models rather than taking personal responsibility. 

There is just too much data.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would definitely lose it if I get skunked, and interior se MA has a nice event.

Euro shows all of us at 4-6 on the 18z run…let’s hope das is right? 

[Damage In Tolland]

So some folks are tossing the Euro , EPS , AI , AIFS and NAM. And siding with GFS and Reggie . Interesting to say the least 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is just too much data.

yup...and too much data created to "save people time" while degrading forecasting skill. Hey, why do I have to spend an hour or two assessing all the critical factors which influence snowfall totals when I can just pull up a 10:1 map, call it a forecast, then blame the model for being wrong when it doesn't pan out. Or significant tornado parameter map is showing widespread values of 4-5...let's go with tornado outbreak! its gross. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

4-8 still in play for many.  Although 8 is a big stretch even if things go well. This is a quick event. 

[dendrite]

18 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Dual lows

Looks like some kind of convective mesolow. That’s like 50kt sustained.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Euro shows all of us at 4-6 on the 18z run…let’s hope das is right? 

Listen you know me and I am 85% of the time Euro but all these claims of improvement to the degree as to reduce doubt , increase confidence is bullshit.

[TalcottWx]

43 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It's amazing how close it is to all snow on the GFS for interior CT.  925 temps are around .5 to 1.5 Celsius during peak warming.. surface 32-34 , 850s around freezing .. 

I think we get buried. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Listen you know me and I am 85% of the time Euro but all these claims of improvement to the degree as to reduce doubt , increase confidence is bullshit.

Thank you…I couldn’t agree more. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Looks like some kind of convective mesolow. That’s like 50kt sustained.

my thinking too...hope that is overdone. doesn't look like a ton of convection associated with this across the SE

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

4-8 still in play for many.  Although 8 is a big stretch even if things go well. This is a quick event. 

Honeymoon PTSD?

[Baroclinic Zone]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Hit that in a heartbeat. 

 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 

 

[ineedsnow]

18z EPS bumping up qpf a bit

[Boston Bulldog]

Dual lows showing up for both EURO and GFS. Couple more cycles of that and I’d be inclined to say that’s a real feature. Nonetheless, cyclogenesis seems to be going to shit 

[CoastalWx]

28 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

You posted it without any caveats, not a mind reader although we can read Scooters prepost

I feel like I have my reasons and it’s based off meteorology.