Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[Chambana]

Probably gonna lose a few inches due to melting and compacting here, still a fast start to winter, none the less! Love to see it

[King James]

Let’s see if I can get 2 feet by December 1st

[migratingwx]

Here we go!

[King James]

LOT hasn’t backed off the idea for rain/snow mix in my area for a time while WGN has been consistent with 8-10 for my area. I know our boy Tom isn’t behind the desk but I love when WGN weather doesn’t budge as the storm closes in.

[A-L-E-K]

Call looking decent, temps and light rates def gonna be an issue

[Baum]

6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Call looking decent, temps and light rates def gonna be an issue

I’d agree. If I could pull 6” on Thanksgiving Weekend would pretty much be a lifetimer for me. Note any other Chicago event you see for Turkey weekend turned to slop post event. That will not be the case this time. Real cold to follow allowing the snow to stick around. Big difference 

[sbnwx85]

This includes today’s lake effect but c’mon now.

[King James]

This includes today’s lake effect but c’mon now.

Overdone? Still seems to be two camps with this one. Trends to me seem to indicate a pretty big event here but LOT and some posters here (guessing leaning into climo) are hedging their bet some.

[A-L-E-K]

27 minutes ago, Baum said:

I’d agree. If I could pull 6” on Thanksgiving Weekend would pretty much be a lifetimer for me. Note any other Chicago event you see for Turkey weekend turned to slop post event. That will not be the case this time. Real cold to follow allowing the snow to stick around. Big difference 

Should be a fine lil event with bonus points for the holiday weekend Saturday timing. I think those with big dog on the brain might be bummed. Ull track not ideal

[sbnwx85]

6 minutes ago, King James said:

Overdone? Still seems to be two camps with this one. Trends to me seem to indicate a pretty big event here but LOT and some posters here (guessing leaning into climo) are hedging their bet some.

The high end of the range is way overdone. 11” here by Sunday morning is plausible if things go well. For the storm itself, things have been looking good for 6-10” for a while. NAM is juiced up but that’s typical at this point. 

[A-L-E-K]

6 hours ago, weathafella said:

If we could get the H7 low 50 miles SE of current guidance we’ll over perform imho.

This would be nice

[michsnowfreak]

Very light dusting of snow this morning. But with Saturdays snow, this will be the 3rd Thanksgiving weekend in a row to have a blanket of snow. 

[mimillman]

This looks like a solid 6-10” area wide with some 12” lollis probably favored over eastern Iowa or northwestern Illinois.

I’m out of town this weekend so will miss this one unfortunately. Get back Sunday early evening so shouldn’t be an issue on the return and will get to enjoy the deep winter feel as we get into December. 

For what it’s worth, I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed a November in proper Chicago (not ORD or the burbs) with this much snow. 2018 was great for the suburbs but downtown it was mostly slop and rain. Nice change of pace to start winter.

[Baum]

6 minutes ago, mimillman said:

This looks like a solid 6-10” area wide with some 12” lollis probably favored over eastern Iowa or northwestern Illinois.

I’m out of town this weekend so will miss this one unfortunately. Get back Sunday early evening so shouldn’t be an issue on the return and will get to enjoy the deep winter feel as we get into December. 

For what it’s worth, I don’t think I’ve ever witnessed a November in proper Chicago (not ORD or the burbs) with this much snow. 2018 was great for the suburbs but downtown it was mostly slop and rain. Nice change of pace to start winter.

Over performer incoming. Positive, the vestiges of it will be around in the form of frozen black slush all week.

[mimillman]

2 minutes ago, Baum said:

Over performer incoming. Positive, the vestiges of it will be around in the form of frozen black slush all week.

I recently moved to Bucktown / Logan Square area so I get to have the neighborhood/suburb feel but still be in the city. No black slush for me!

[mimillman]

7 hours ago, weathafella said:

If we could get the H7 low 50 miles SE of current guidance we’ll over perform imho.

We’re getting invaded by the New England forum 

[cyclone77]

So nice to be tracking a system where we don't have to worry about the timing of a changeover, dry tongue issues, and moisture robbing 'vection.  

[ChiTownSnow]

Seems like all major models are aligned here?  NAM may be a bit stronger but also has the latest data

[AWMT30]

Solid start to the models today! A nice Chicago to Detroit sweeping Winter Storm with 6-10" 

[Baum]

5 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

So nice to be tracking a system where we don't have to worry about the timing of a changeover, dry tongue issues, and moisture robbing 'vection.  

Uh-oh

[Stevo6899]

10 minutes ago, AWMT30 said:

Solid start to the models today! A nice Chicago to Detroit sweeping Winter Storm with 6-10" 

tbh I dont see much accumulating here.

[beavis1729]

27 minutes ago, mimillman said:

We’re getting invaded by the New England forum 

So? No need to be a jerk…Jerry is in town for the week and hoping for the best outcome like all of us. 

[mimillman]

Just now, beavis1729 said:

So? No need to be a jerk…Jerry is in town for the week and hoping for the best outcome like all of us. 

Buddy, it’s a joke. Pretty sure he knows it as I made the same joke about 3 years ago 

[jlauderdal]

29 minutes ago, mimillman said:

We’re getting invaded by the New England forum 

And the tropical forum, it was a slow season, so we have to find a gfs/euro battle somewhere.  Sticking with my 7.5 prediction for my visit to Downers Grove starting tomorrow.  We have to watch the Euro-AI, its been consistent on a surge of 32+ air Sunday morning, Euro has the surge farther east.  For now, looks like enough cold air in place to keep it frozen north of Kankakee.  The system will be a win for many.

[AWMT30]

16 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

tbh I dont see much accumulating here.

Classic weaken trend as it moves into the state? 

[RCNYILWX]

The top end range on the "official NWS forecast" graphic is the 75th percentile of the NBM distribution and the low end is the 25th percentile. Point and click is still quite high and possibly/likely overdone and our (LOT CWA) overnight forecaster did some work to rein it in a bit even. Looks like DVN made less adjustments to the initialized data so they have a large area of 12"+.

I can say, speaking for my office, that we all strongly dislike the probabilistic winter page but unfortunately we don't have control over what's displayed on it.

[ILSNOW]

Ricky 

what are you thoughts?

[ChiTownSnow]

7 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

The top end range on the "official NWS forecast" graphic is the 75th percentile of the NBM distribution and the low end is the 25th percentile. Point and click is still quite high and possibly/likely overdone and our (LOT CWA) overnight forecaster did some work to rein it in a bit even. Looks like DVN made less adjustments to the initialized data so they have a large area of 12"+.

I can say, speaking for my office, that we all strongly dislike the probabilistic winter page but unfortunately we don't have control over what's displayed on it.


 

Thanks for the clarification. I just saw those maps as well and was a little surprised at those numbers.

[Chicago WX]

4-8/6-10" looks like a decent range for here. Pretty good agreement amongst the ensembles of a range of 0.60-0.80" total QPF. Not really worried about p-type, and if it changes to snizzle, it should be after 95% of the storm has done its damage. Regardless, need 4.6" to hit double digits for November, which is pretty freaking fantastic. 

[ChiTownSnow]

19 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

4-8/6-10" looks like a decent range for here. Pretty good agreement amongst the ensembles of a range of 0.60-0.80" total QPF. Not really worried about p-type, and if it changes to snizzle, it should be after 95% of the storm has done its damage. Regardless, need 4.6" to hit double digits for November, which is pretty freaking fantastic. 

I think that's a solid call.  4-8 still gets the message across that it's a high impact storm system during a holiday weekend , which then can be updated with higher totals as needed