December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Stormchaserchuck1]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's why I said "after New Years." But come January, average temps can produce, so I'mnot looking for BN temps. 

My average high gets down to 38 on the coldest day of the year, Jan 27. I think the average high is low 40s in early Jan. Problem with -PNA is that it's rarely very below (besides behind storm systems/cold fronts). It hits "average or above" at a 0.85 correlation. Also, Jan has a bigger SE ridge correlation than December

[Terpeast]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My average high gets down to 38 on the coldest day of the year, Jan 27. I think the average high is low 40s in early Jan. Problem with -PNA is that it's rarely very below (besides behind storm systems/cold fronts). It hits "average or above" at a 0.85 correlation. Also, Jan has a bigger SE ridge correlation than December

The models have been biasing the PNA too low, so it may only end up being -2sd at the lowest this month. Also saw from GaWx that if Dec averages -pna, Jan tends to flip to +pna at least by the second half of the month. The bias corrected PNA forecasts trending to neutral by new years. 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

My average high gets down to 38 on the coldest day of the year, Jan 27. I think the average high is low 40s in early Jan. Problem with -PNA is that it's rarely very below (besides behind storm systems/cold fronts). It hits "average or above" at a 0.85 correlation. Also, Jan has a bigger SE ridge correlation than December

Odds of a favorable, general pattern may be against us in the east, but we get the bulk of our snows in meh patterns, and they are usually dirty storms (zr and/or ip). I'm of the opinion this winter will produce some moderate, at least, events.

[JenkinsJinkies]

12 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Odds of a favorable, general pattern may be against us in the east, but we get the bulk of our snows in meh patterns, and they are usually dirty storms (zr and/or ip). I'm of the opinion this winter will produce some moderate, at least, events.

I mean based on the previous posts the pna may be improved by late January.

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean based on the previous posts the pna may be improved by late January.

Honestly, I  don't base my thoughts strictly on these man-made indexes that are actually different depending on which site you use that comes up with the index numbers. Would I prefer a +PNA? Sure, but it can snow with something other than that with a well timed threat. And considering how many systems we saw come off the Pacific in the last 3 weeks, we'll have our chances, which is all we can hope for at any given time.

[rjvanals]

One thing I’ve noticed anecdotally is winters where Syracuse has a lot of early snow compared to Buffalo turn out to be decent in the DMV due to a predominantly NW flow that hits Syracuse while building up a snowpack in Canada vs winters that dump on Buffalo have a SW flow and have a ice free Lake Erie. 
 

So far this winter Syracuse has 39” while Buffalo has 17” which if my theory is correct is a good sign for the rest of our winter. 
 

https://goldensnowball.com

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

One thing I’ve noticed anecdotally is winters where Syracuse has a lot of early snow compared to Buffalo turn out to be decent in the DMV due to a predominantly NW flow that hits Syracuse while building up a snowpack in Canada vs winters that dump on Buffalo have a SW flow and have a ice free Lake Erie. 
 

So far this winter Syracuse has 39” while Buffalo has 17” which if my theory is correct is a good sign for the rest of our winter. 
 

https://goldensnowball.com

 

 

PSU also has a rule of thumb type of thing where the odds of a certain type of snow season are based off of when his area records an inch of snow for the first time.

It’s been a while since I saw the post but from what I remember it was something along the lines of if he gets his first inch around December 1st then there’s a good chance of a blockbuster winter, if it’s around this time of December then there’s good odds of reaching climo, but if it’s in the lead up to New Years and beyond then it’s going to be a dead ratter.

[Bob Chill]

24 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Honestly, I  don't base my thoughts strictly on these man-made indexes that are actually different depending on which site you use that comes up with the index numbers. Would I prefer a +PNA? Sure, but it can snow with something other than that with a well timed threat. And considering how many systems we saw come off the Pacific in the last 3 weeks, we'll have our chances, which is all we can hope for at any given time.

AO is my #1 thing to track and NAO is #2. No matter what the pna is doing, a -AO keeps the door open for snow chances 90% of the time and a +AO is the opposite of that. Quite the AO spike going on and it was missed completely by the gefs. It's no coincidence that my 2 snowfalls this year coincide with the -AO. Being south of my old yard means less wiggle room so it's logical for me to live and die by the AO more than you lol. Right now lr ens spread is split with a return to a neg AO d10-15. 

 

Interestingly, the nao is prog'd to go negative in the mid/lr and thats prob what is keeping the door open for CAD events. Storm track looks unfriendly but cold getting boxed in can still work even if imperfect. If we can get a neg AO/NAO combo going before the end of the month we could be right back in good times. 

[Eskimo Joe]

47 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

AO is my #1 thing to track and NAO is #2. No matter what the pna is doing, a -AO keeps the door open for snow chances 90% of the time and a +AO is the opposite of that. Quite the AO spike going on and it was missed completely by the gefs. It's no coincidence that my 2 snowfalls this year coincide with the -AO. Being south of my old yard means less wiggle room so it's logical for me to live and die by the AO more than you lol. Right now lr ens spread is split with a return to a neg AO d10-15. 

 

Interestingly, the nao is prog'd to go negative in the mid/lr and thats prob what is keeping the door open for CAD events. Storm track looks unfriendly but cold getting boxed in can still work even if imperfect. If we can get a neg AO/NAO combo going before the end of the month we could be right back in good times. 

 

Seems like the majority of the members want to tank the AO by 12/20, with a small camp keeping things in positive territory. Hope we can get a consensus on a more favorable pattern shortly.

[NorthArlington101]

This is hardly a controversial take but I think I’m shutting the blinds til Christmas Day or so. Guess it’s possible a discrete window to track something opens up by the 20th. But five days of not checking every EURO/GFS run sounds nice! 

[H2O]

Is it just me or by looking at those graphs , the models do a lot better with the NAO than AO. 
 

personally I rather have a NAO in our favor. But if PNA is ridic neg we gonna need a bottlenecked Atlantic to make PAC stuff slow down and give us events

[Eskimo Joe]

Interesting

 

 

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, H2O said:

Is it just me or by looking at those graphs , the models do a lot better with the NAO than AO. 
 

personally I rather have a NAO in our favor. But if PNA is ridic neg we gonna need a bottlenecked Atlantic to make PAC stuff slow down and give us events

NAO is typically more volatile than the AO so it's usually the other way around. It's actually not all that common for the GEFS to mess up the AO in the D7 range like it has. Why it's been happening is well over my paygrade lol but something is causing it. Maybe strat stuff. Hard to say. I find it pretty interesting though 

The AO affects storm track and jet patterns across the continent so it's an important index for storm track. NAO is a key ingredient to a big/slow moving storm so for us in the MA, it's important. Up in the NE a big -NAO is often a net negative. Snowfall correlation in the MA is more closely tied to the AO vs NAO. 

We're due for a neg ao/nao combo and big storm. 2016 is the last classic mauling. Going 10 years without one isn't very common. Let's collectively will one our way and have it exit south of NYC for old times sake hahaha

[Benjamn3]

32 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

NAO is typically more volatile than the AO so it's usually the other way around. It's actually not all that common for the GEFS to mess up the AO in the D7 range like it has. Why it's been happening is well over my paygrade lol but something is causing it. Maybe strat stuff. Hard to say. I find it pretty interesting though 

The AO affects storm track and jet patterns across the continent so it's an important index for storm track. NAO is a key ingredient to a big/slow moving storm so for us in the MA, it's important. Up in the NE a big -NAO is often a net negative. Snowfall correlation in the MA is more closely tied to the AO vs NAO. 

We're due for a neg ao/nao combo and big storm. 2016 is the last classic mauling. Going 10 years without one isn't very common. Let's collectively will one our way and have it exit south of NYC for old times sake hahaha

Like Oprah says “speak it into existence”. 

[IronTy]

JB says the MJO is correcting back to phase 8 and the NAO is going negative again and that the models are correcting to a colder look for the period leading up to Christmas.  

[Ji]

JB says the MJO is correcting back to phase 8 and the NAO is going negative again and that the models are correcting to a colder look for the period leading up to Christmas.  

I feel better now

[H2O]

@Bob Chilli should have caveat’d to say so far this winter GFS has done better with NAO vs AO. 

Obviously both being neg is preferable but I guess I like NAO more cause it jams up the ATL closer to us which for me means HPs can’t slide east so quick. We’ve had AOs be neg but be in locations that don’t help as much. 
 

Basically I want anything that gives us snow. AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, DIY, WTF, SOS. Gnat farts in Mongolia work too

[winter_warlock]

 Very nice read from respected Met Mike Masco about.  Models pulling back on the idea of a torch Christmas!!

 

 

[stormtracker]

Can yall just wait till I get back from FL on the 2nd.   Never missed a snowstorm due to travel and I already told my bf I would be sick in FL (of all Godforsaken places) if I missed.   I'm breaking my never travel in winter rule for him.  If I miss a storm, I told him to have his shit packed when we get back.

[stormtracker]

33 minutes ago, H2O said:

@Bob Chilli should have caveat’d to say so far this winter GFS has done better with NAO vs AO. 

Obviously both being neg is preferable but I guess I like NAO more cause it jams up the ATL closer to us which for me means HPs can’t slide east so quick. We’ve had AOs be neg but be in locations that don’t help as much. 
 

Basically I want anything that gives us snow. AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, DIY, WTF, SOS. Gnat farts in Mongolia work too

We need a forum wide crusher.  This have and have not shit is getting irritating. 

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We need a forum wide crusher.  This have and have not shit is getting irritating. 

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

We need a forum wide crusher.  This have and have not shit is getting irritating. 

It's been forever since we've seen a Richmond to Boston beat down. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

We gonna get back to fun when we both start posting our fav memes.  It ain't a thread without at least one Clint gif from you.

[stormtracker]

Just now, dailylurker said:

It's been forever since we've seen a Richmond to Boston beat down. 

FOREVER.

Remember the days of yore when we had 989 Lows off of ORF.  Been a long ass time.

[Bob Chill]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FOREVER.

Remember the days of yore when we had 989 Lows off of ORF.  Been a long ass time.

I'm so down with a Roanoke/Richmond > DC/Baltimore  shellack and Philly fringe/NYC bust storm. 

 

[cbmclean]

57 minutes ago, H2O said:

@Bob Chilli should have caveat’d to say so far this winter GFS has done better with NAO vs AO. 

Obviously both being neg is preferable but I guess I like NAO more cause it jams up the ATL closer to us which for me means HPs can’t slide east so quick. We’ve had AOs be neg but be in locations that don’t help as much. 
 

Basically I want anything that gives us snow. AO, NAO, PNA, WPO, DIY, WTF, SOS. Gnat farts in Mongolia work too

Obviously the numeric indices aren't as important as the the patterns they attempt to quantify, but overall I suspect that NAO blocking is less impactful for you guys in the current base state.  The return flow before a shortwave has just been a little too warm.  I know, I know: it's been rare lately to get a well-positioned block that lasts.  But transient boot-leg stuff used to have a greater probability of meaningful results.  Will that change some if we can ever get out of the -----PDO dregs, I don't know.  I sure hope so.

By the way, I loved your work in Blazing Saddles.  Would you consider signing up for a remake?

[pazzo83]

31 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It's been forever since we've seen a Richmond to Boston beat down. 

when really was the last one?  2010?

[cbmclean]

2 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

when really was the last one?  2010?

2016 was not one?

[gopper]

3 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

when really was the last one?  2010?

[cbmclean]

1 minute ago, gopper said:

I guess it really petered out at Boston.  Pretty close though.