December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[TSSN+]

Anyone have southern Va/northern NC on their to get more snow than us in December poll? Lol

 

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Anyone have southern Va/northern NC on their to get more snow than us in December poll? Lol

 

just like last winter

[Imgoinhungry]

If we have high pressure in place to lock in the cold, everything is suppressed. When the high pressure recedes we get 34 degrees and rain. Dc metro is just brutal for snow lovers.


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[bncho]

FWIW the 12z GFS a jump north compared to 6z GFS

 

[Chris78]

9 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Anyone have southern Va/northern NC on their to get more snow than us in December poll? Lol

 

Miss one south , then north. Next Fridays clipper has evaporated.  Fun times

[gopper]

3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Miss one south , then north. Next Fridays clipper has evaporated.  Fun times

This is how we roll around these parts.  Frustrating, for sure, but it is just the way it tends to be.  I suspect that in the middle of the frustration, another, little, surprise event will start to materialize.  If not, we go back to chasing pink unicorns in the future.   C'est la vie.

[Maestrobjwa]

14 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Miss one south , then north. Next Fridays clipper has evaporated.  Fun times

Next weekend feels like it's gonna hurt feelings more...it looks like the makings of a potential Miller Too Late storm that could give some in the northeast their first warning snowfall in awhile. But I could be wrong, though

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

We had the SSW (barely) a few weeks ago which threw the models going warm for a loop. Now we have another Stratosphere warming, though not a technical SSW with negative winds, coming around the 15th per attachment.  I think we'll need to wait until after the 20th-25th to see how that effects the AO/NAO.

 

 

More and more signs have been pointing towards the long duration +ao/nao phase breaking down and flipping back towards what we saw in the 1996-2011 period. Doesn't mean every winter will be blocky of course just that we will have more periods of blocking than we've seen and possibly some long duration blocks over the coming years. Time will tell as always 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

59 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Anyone have southern Va/northern NC on their to get more snow than us in December poll? Lol

 

$20 says if this were El Nino it would juice up enough to hit DC

[Benjamn3]

As a member of The Appalachian American Delegation, I’m really enjoying these trends lolol. Like ol Jebman says, I hope for Barney cold and snow for all. I want us ALL to have more white powder on the ground than Rick James’ mansion in 1987. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

12z HRRR is further north with the wave for Monday. Gets SW/Southern DC burbs on the northern edge of precip. An inch or so for S MD over to the lower eastern Shore.

When that blasts thru Monday dropping temps there will be snow with it

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Anyone have southern Va/northern NC on their to get more snow than us in December poll? Lol

 

Why not?? I have a house down in rehoboth and we have seen more snow down there than in Elliott City the last 2 out of 3 winters.  One year (I think 21-22) was one of the snowiest seasons they have seen in a very long time.  It’s looking like that seasonal pattern is setting up again.
 

the problem is clearly not cold air. It’s timing, overall precip and storm track. 
 

This is why it’s so frustrating when I have a normal person tell me “it just doesn’t snow like it used to, it’s doesnt get cold enough anymore”

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro with a bit of a jump north

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Euro with a bit of a jump north

You’re gonna do well tomorrow. There were a few storms down there where I couldn’t really make a thread because the only person posting down regularly  was me lol. Good luck! 

[rjvanals]

12z runs are pretty depressing today 

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You’re gonna do well tomorrow. There were a few storms down there where I couldn’t really make a thread because the only person posting down regularly  was me lol. Good luck! 

This wasn't even really on my radar till you mentioned it still Friday night. Now I need to make a last second insta forecast for my friends at UVA Tech and W&M lmao 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

This wasn't even really on my radar till you mentioned it still Friday night. Now I need to make a last second insta forecast for my friends at UVA Tech and W&M lmao 

I’m still hoping that some weather god out there acknowledges my existence and sneaks a couple tenths up to DCA. But can never get too mad when areas further south do alright. Just wish my job was still remote so I could get down there more easily, lol. Prob not worth the hassle for 1-3”. 

[IronTy]

10 minutes ago, rjvanals said:

12z runs are pretty depressing today 

Lol

 

 

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Lol

 

 

I feel every La Nina we look at maps like this and they suck!

 

[SnowenOutThere]

18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m still hoping that some weather god out there acknowledges my existence and sneaks a couple tenths up to DCA. But can never get too mad when areas further south do alright. Just wish my job was still remote so I could get down there more easily, lol. Prob not worth the hassle for 1-3”. 

Yeah I think a chase should be reserved for either 4+ inches or a weekend day. Not to mention how bad the traffic is getting into Cvill from the 14 lane stroad on route 29. I hope its able to bump its way a little bit further north for you guys as well! So far our seasonal trend appears to be last minute favorable north shifts so its possible!

[Scraff]

Nice write up by Justin Berk:
 

“Is there a case to be made for snow next weekend?
These are just notes of what I’m watching this week…
Timing of upper level energy can be off by a day when looking a full week away. 
This past Friday event initially looked like an afternoon and night thing… but it ended up mostly in the morning…. And lingering into the next day with upper level support. 

My purpose here is the highlight that the modeling is NOT perfect. It’s all about timing and I subscribe to the fact this polar jet has features we are not seeing handled well on the models. 
Not seeing  much snow now, could change if the alignment changes…. And it may from what I saw in the early morning plots. 
The chaotic atmosphere is imperfectly predicted farther out in time. 

1. The big push of the Polar Vortex will arrive.

2. Temps Saturday afternoon likely to stay in the 20s to low 30s.

Tracking ENERGY in the jet stream with Vorticity  5-7 days away is imperfect. Again, the timing can be off by a a few hours or a day, and that can make or break phasing - which is needed for a storm to form. 

3. Vorticity Saturday morning from the EPS, which is an ensemble blend of global models. This brings the main vort max across Maryland and then just cold. 

4. Vorticity Saturday morning on the European AI model looks similar, but more active. There is more energy in the pipeline.

THEN…

5. Vorticity Sunday night brings the base of the polar jet across Maryland. 

Will it snow?

6. Saturday Afternoon ECMWF has a clipper to our north, with a chance for flurries while light snow in the mountains and to our north. 
The timing is off and not letting it phase.
If this ends up a little south or the timing changes, I believe there’s a chance for more to develop. 

7. Sunday afternoon the ECMWF AI model brings that wave in later and spins up as it hits the coast. 

8. Sunday Night the GFS is later with the energy AND closest with the attempt to phase. 

Just seeing the variations next weekend show me there is a lot left to be understood. 

So expect the outlook to change. 
It’s NOT a promise that it will snow, but a pledge that next weekend’s weather will be cold, but the rest we don’t fully know. 

Faith in the Flakes”

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Euro with a bit of a jump north

Remarkable how similar the end result looks like it could be to the last storm for mby (NW of Staunton in Augusta County) and points south.

The snow should be arriving in similar morning hours with similar temperatures and similar 2 to 4 inch amounts across the county.  The trends are good as well, just like Friday.

Cautiously optimistic for a 4-day weekend for my family!

[winter_warlock]

It will be like it always is....  Great pattern for snow,, so naturally we won't get any storms, then when pattern changes to warm, then we will get storms. Just like every other year

[Imgoinhungry]

It will be like it always is....  Great pattern for snow,, so naturally we won't get any storms, then when pattern changes to warm, then we will get storms. Just like every other year

Precisely how it works now


.

[winter_warlock]

37 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Nice write up by Justin Berk:
 

“Is there a case to be made for snow next weekend?
These are just notes of what I’m watching this week…
Timing of upper level energy can be off by a day when looking a full week away. 
This past Friday event initially looked like an afternoon and night thing… but it ended up mostly in the morning…. And lingering into the next day with upper level support. 

My purpose here is the highlight that the modeling is NOT perfect. It’s all about timing and I subscribe to the fact this polar jet has features we are not seeing handled well on the models. 
Not seeing  much snow now, could change if the alignment changes…. And it may from what I saw in the early morning plots. 
The chaotic atmosphere is imperfectly predicted farther out in time. 

1. The big push of the Polar Vortex will arrive.

2. Temps Saturday afternoon likely to stay in the 20s to low 30s.

Tracking ENERGY in the jet stream with Vorticity  5-7 days away is imperfect. Again, the timing can be off by a a few hours or a day, and that can make or break phasing - which is needed for a storm to form. 

3. Vorticity Saturday morning from the EPS, which is an ensemble blend of global models. This brings the main vort max across Maryland and then just cold. 

4. Vorticity Saturday morning on the European AI model looks similar, but more active. There is more energy in the pipeline.

THEN…

5. Vorticity Sunday night brings the base of the polar jet across Maryland. 

Will it snow?

6. Saturday Afternoon ECMWF has a clipper to our north, with a chance for flurries while light snow in the mountains and to our north. 
The timing is off and not letting it phase.
If this ends up a little south or the timing changes, I believe there’s a chance for more to develop. 

7. Sunday afternoon the ECMWF AI model brings that wave in later and spins up as it hits the coast. 

8. Sunday Night the GFS is later with the energy AND closest with the attempt to phase. 

Just seeing the variations next weekend show me there is a lot left to be understood. 

So expect the outlook to change. 
It’s NOT a promise that it will snow, but a pledge that next weekend’s weather will be cold, but the rest we don’t fully know. 

Faith in the Flakes”

 Berk isn't very accurate at all lol. Probably why no station will hire him anymore lol

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Imgoinhungry said:

Precisely how it works now


.

Yup!!

[FBXwinterfan]

I moved from by the Richmond airport to Spotsylvania County in 2017 thinking I would see a lot more snow. Since then have seen a lot of these types of southern sliders. It gets frustrating. 

[BlizzardNole]

4 hours ago, Imgoinhungry said:

If we have high pressure in place to lock in the cold, everything is suppressed. When the high pressure recedes we get 34 degrees and rain. Dc metro is just brutal for snow lovers.


.

I've been in MontCo for 32 years and have family in southern MD.  I think the winter climo has changed where being in the "northern and western suburbs" is no longer an advantage.  Marginal, mixed events are further north and we miss the southern sliders/coastal scrapers, leaving a snowfall minima in the center of our region. 

[yoda]

Afternoon LWX AFD for late next week chances

Upslope snow showers will linger across the Alleghenies through
Thursday before moisture is cutoff under west to southwest flow.
Additional moisture arrives with a secondary Arctic front that looks
to cross Thursday night into Friday. In additional to the front an
area of low pressure expect to track along the boundary from the
Tennessee River Valley and toward the Carolina/VA Tidewater region
during the same aforementioned timeframe. The combination of these
two systems could bring another round of impactful wintry weather to
the region. Uncertainty still remains as some guidance has backed
away on the development of this system while other guidance has a
more organized wave of energy pushing through. Confidence is still
low in regards to timing, intensity, and totals. Each of the
deterministic model solutions and their ensembles favor a quick
moving storms Friday into Saturday with another potent blast of cold
air in it`s wake. The GFS, ECMWF, GEFS, and EPC all have some snow
for the area while the GEM, RDPS, and CMCE do not. Of course these
models are subject to change and likely to flip-flop in the coming
days ahead. Will continue to monitor these changes and post
additional information at weather.gov/lwx/winter.

Highs Thursday will remain in the upper 30s and mid 40s with
lows Thursday night in the mid to upper 20s 20s outside the
mountains. Similar readings can be expected Friday with
temperatures crashing into the teens and 20s Friday night into
the wake of the front. 850 mb temps this weekend will plummet to
12 to 17 degrees C yielding highs below freezing on both
Saturday and Sunday (teens mountains).

[Buddy1987]

18z 3K Nam is a beatdown south of 64