December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[WxWatcher007]

Still below zero here 

[monadnocks]

2 hours ago, VivaManchVegas said:

Long time lurker here. The moderators finally gave me my wings... thank you!  I will chime in with some observations now and then.  I am trying to think when the last white Christmas was here in S. NH.  I think its been 10 years or so.  Maybe someone can help with that.  I don't count snow banks, 60 degrees and rolling fog to be a white Christmas. Cheers. Got down to 7 degrees here last night.  

Welcome! I’m not that far west from and we have snow cover. The last storm dropped about 2” on top of the half melted pack that remained.

[mreaves]

24 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Still below zero here 

A relatively balmy 1.5° here off a low of -6.5°

[dendrite]

8.9F

I don't mind snow or making some ice on the ponds, but these airmasses always suck. Especially with a lot of clouds around.

[dendrite]

Warmer on MWN than HIE and BML at 10am so you know this is pretty shallow.

[HoarfrostHubb]

41 minutes ago, dendrite said:

8.9F

I don't mind snow or making some ice on the ponds, but these airmasses always suck. Especially with a lot of clouds around.

I don't mind the cold...just the wind that sucks

[HoarfrostHubb]

Hoping to get somewhat dryslotted on Monday... that first batch will hit no matter what

[wx2fish]

10 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Hoping to get somewhat dryslotted on Monday... that first batch will hit no matter what

First batch may end up freezing rain from your area on northward

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

First batch may end up freezing rain from your area on northward

Some guidance never warm sectors north of pike over interior. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

44 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I don't mind the cold...just the wind that sucks

Is that the winter equivalent of  “It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity”?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Some guidance never warm sectors north of pike over interior. 

Yeah, I think it will be icy for a bit, but hopefully not enough accretion to cause any issues.

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Some guidance never warm sectors north of pike over interior. 

Yeah pack should make it. 35-39 SOP

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah pack should make it. 35-39 SOP

Sop in jeopardy.

[Ginx snewx]

Big changes in LR Jan will continue our cold. Graphics from Andrej Flis

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Sop in jeopardy.

Not for pack melt . Ice to Cold rain 

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Not for pack melt . Ice to Cold rain 

Euro torch. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro op is so much warmer vs AI. AI makes sense,  but doesn’t have to mean it’s correct. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op is so much warmer vs AI. AI makes sense,  but doesn’t have to mean it’s correct. 

Should be weak 2ndary reflection with this . Obviously above freezing but will not torch at all

[CoastalWx]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Should be weak 2ndary reflection with this . Obviously above freezing but will not torch at all

Well maybe. We just don’t know?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well maybe. We just don’t know?

Confused ?

 

[Ginx snewx]

Doesn't get more classic than modeled. 

[CoastalWx]

Need to kick that Bering Sea trough west 

[WinterWolf]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Confused ?

 

.  Good one. 
 

Personally…if it all melts Monday..so be it. But either way it’s ok with me. Whatever is left will lock up like a brick. 

[Typhoon Tip]

The changes are starting out over the vastness of eastern/NE Asia and the relay across the N. arc of the Pacific Basin a bit over a week from now. 

I discussed this yesterday or the day before whenever that was that the GEPs was first, then joined by the EPS. 

The wave function producing that resonant -WPO feature out there that has plagued our side of the N. hemisphere is at last depicted to collapse. This is true among all ensemble systems - perhaps more aggressively so in the EPS and Canadian clusters but the GEFs mean's taken some strides. 

There's a few implications, some speculative... some known - but the caveat being that this all actually takes place.  It's really out ~10 day whence the sweep begins... The timing can change, too.  By the 300 or so hours out into the temporal range there is an abrupt reversal of the height anomaly distribution over the N. arc up there.  Below is the EPS example.

Change are coming ... Some very early indicators are +PNA, hinted already above with at least a return of the perennial W. N/A bulge over the Rockies.  It's all very primitive.   

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

.  Good one. 
 

Personally…if it all melts Monday..so be it. But either way it’s ok with me. Whatever is left will lock up like a brick. 

It won’t 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro op is so much warmer vs AI. AI makes sense,  but doesn’t have to mean it’s correct. 

And speaking of AI, check out the AIGFS.  Not depicting a huge storm per se, but still a highly weenie-ish look.

[Typhoon Tip]

One implicating of losing the -EPO is the relaxation in the flow that takes place down stream over the continent.   There's still plenty of cold air around... don't worry.  But the upshot is that the gradient slacks off, and that allows the kinematics to conserve at the S/W scale.   Right away, the Euro operational run takes advantage of that - whether it is correct or not ( likely not as is - ), the principle of a better pattern for winter enthusiasts immediately materializes there.