December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these are also means that we're looking at... it wouldn't be shocking that there's some washing out ongoing

for example. members that don't develop a strong -NAO are likely complete torches with very high E US heights. however, ones that do, and especially the ones that shift the block more west, might actually just have a cold airmass in the east. wish there was a way to look at EPS members like that

I wouldn't be shocked if that ridging in the south is too smoothed out too. I would wager probably more of a ridge axis into the upper Mississippi Valley which could then argue for some lower heights in the Northeast The overall structure of that trough across western Canada's coast will be a big player too 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I could see a marginal get thrown up for far eastern CT/RI/SE MA. the NAM would certainly argue it but sometimes the NAM gets a little overzealous with elevated in stability in these setups. NAM does have a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates (and greater CAPE) but I think its overdone in that regard. The key for eastern areas will be little to no shower activity ahead of the main area

mm  I'm thinking more along the lines of synoptic forcing/wind problems that are then entangled with convection along what's inevitably going to be a ribbon echo squall sinuously side winding across the area. I guess wind watch headlines may cover this come to think of it.

Plus... any "subtle" discrete nature to leading convective elements that are embedded in the misty wind smearing rad wash region - dirty warm sector...  Those'll be whisking along within a llv jet.  Those could snap troubled limbs.  NAM is a tad more aggressive with this llv wind max than the Euro ( 12z ) ...haven't looked that GFS.  But the NAM indicated 65+kts at 925 mb between HFD-BED!     That's a whopper if it's for real.  But even the Euro has this wind maxim moving NYC to SE zones/clipping at 55 to 60.   A compromise puts a potential momentum/gust problem across the bulk of the area.  There's still still 2 days to tune this potential.  But the soundings start to look more barotropic as this is all occurring and that means we scale back the protective inversion stuff...  

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. 
 

Has another messy system on 12/26 too. 

I tend to like those messy systems in southern New England

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  I'm thinking more along the lines of synoptic forcing/wind problems that are then entangled with convection along what's inevitably going to be a ribbon echo squall sinuously side winding across the area. I guess wind watch headlines may cover this come to think of it.

Plus... any "subtle" discrete nature to leading convective elements that are embedded in the misty wind smearing rad wash region - dirty warm sector...  Those'll be whisking along within a llv jet.  Those could snap troubled limbs.  NAM is a tad more aggressive with this llv wind max than the Euro ( 12z ) ...haven't looked that GFS.  But the NAM indicated 65+kts at 925 mb between HFD-BED!     That's a whopper if it's for real.  But even the Euro has this wind maxim moving NYC to SE zones/clipping at 55 to 60.   A compromise puts a potential momentum/gust problem across the bulk of the area.  There's still still 2 days to tune this potential.  But the soundings start to look more barotropic as this is all occurring and that means we scale back the protective inversion stuff...  

NAM/GFS do have an insane LLJ at 925 materialize across eastern CT/RI/E MA through Friday morning...so something to definitely keep an eye on if that can be tapped into. This does happen to coincide with the leading edge of the main rain area too, however, there is a stout inversion too

[weatherwiz]

If the fun weather can't come to you, you go to it. I don't think I've ever seen a civil emergency message for wind before. Sure its happened but must be rare

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM/GFS do have an insane LLJ at 925 materialize across eastern CT/RI/E MA through Friday morning...so something to definitely keep an eye on if that can be tapped into. This does happen to coincide with the leading edge of the main rain area too, however, there is a stout inversion too

synoptic wind driven events seldom materialize or verify as advertised.   That's why I lean needing the convective assist - hence the Marginal. 

I just checked btw and they've already gone there in their d-3 sev storms outlook - tho the verbiage is rather bland.  

 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

synoptic wind driven events seldom materialize or verify rather to advertised.   That's way I lean needing the convective assist - hence the Marginal. 

I just checked btw and they've already gone there in their d-3 sev storms outlook - tho the verbiage is rather bland.  

 

yeah and they seem to target coastal VA/NC. 

Should be getting a new D3 update though within the next 5-15 minutes. 

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if we could see some snow squalls into western areas late Friday afternoon 

[Typhoon Tip]

impressive hydrostatic correction with that front, no doubt.   20 dm in 6 hours, the bulk of which happens faster than that, too.   

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I agree a low first half of a season correlates with a low season in general...what I am saying is that a very low December is a much more dire signal in a cool ENSO season than in a warm ENSO.

One site, only 27 winters, percentage of total winter snow:
             n    Oct-Dec   Oct-Jan
El Nino (8)    24%         51%
La Nina (7)   25%         48%
La Nada (12) 37%        59%

SSS, but the outlier seems obvious.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Aside from random piles, most of the snowcover will be gone by tomorrow here, and I'd imagine most of SNE. Hard to call the 19th cutter a grincher now, unless theres some damage to be done up north. 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Aside from random piles, most of the snowcover will be gone by tomorrow here, and I'd imagine most of SNE. Hard to call the 19th cutter a grincher now, unless theres some damage to be done up north. 

My snow cover will take a hit, but I'll probably have a layer of white ice.

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

My snow cover will take a hit, but I'll probably have a layer of white ice.

There might be Swiss cheese left here. 

[CoastalWx]

Pretty much gone here 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly, are there any analogs that have that look? I can’t recall that. It reminds me of those stagnant farts that just stays in the room and doesn’t disperse. Just persistent ass.

It’s an unstable longwave pattern so these types don’t last very long. The closest analogs are mostly El Niño years. Early Jan 1952, late Dec 1957 and Dec 1965. Hopefully those roll over the same way because those years had some great patterns a few weeks later. 
 

But I kind of agree with @brooklynwx99, it’s not going to verify exactly as depicted for 10-14 days on end. It’s prob going to trend toward something a bit more stable. Hopefully that means on the snowier side for us and not the furnace side. 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s an unstable longwave pattern so these types don’t last very long. The closest analogs are mostly El Niño years. Early Jan 1952, late Dec 1957 and Dec 1965. Hopefully those roll over the same way because those years had some great patterns a few weeks later. 
 

But I kind of agree with @brooklynwx99, it’s not going to verify exactly as depicted for 10-14 days on end. It’s prob going to trend toward something a bit more stable. Hopefully that means on the snowier side for us and not the furnace side. 

It’s definitely not a stable look for sure, but it’s darn persistent on guidance in some shape or form.

It’s just bizarre to me. I can’t recall anything like it. Of course we can’t get a nice deep trough out west and a SE ridge with that look because if we did, I feel like it would be a fun pattern. But God forbid we have something in our favor.  

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s an unstable longwave pattern so these types don’t last very long. The closest analogs are mostly El Niño years. Early Jan 1952, late Dec 1957 and Dec 1965. Hopefully those roll over the same way because those years had some great patterns a few weeks later. 
 

But I kind of agree with @brooklynwx99, it’s not going to verify exactly as depicted for 10-14 days on end. It’s prob going to trend toward something a bit more stable. Hopefully that means on the snowier side for us and not the furnace side. 

Do you still expect modeling to show some big changes going forward as you did yesterday?  I mean 6z(as has been the case for a while now)showed something pretty decent. Then of course 12z goes the other way. Same story as all of last week too. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Do you still expect modeling to show some big changes going forward as you did yesterday?  I mean 6z(as has been the case for a while now)showed something pretty decent. Then of course 12z goes the other way. Same story as all of last week too. 

I expect anything beyond D6 to jump a decent amount in terms of shortwaves. That’s often the case anyway but especially going to happen in this type of flow.

Longer range is kind of a clown show right now. I wouldn’t want to forecast what early January is going to look like right now. 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I expect anything beyond D6 to jump a decent amount in terms of shortwaves. That’s often the case anyway but especially going to happen in this type of flow.

Longer range is kind of a clown show right now. I wouldn’t want to forecast what early January is going to look like right now. 

I just meant next week…7-8 days from now. 

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

There might be Swiss cheese left here. 

Most will probably be gone but maybe we get lucky.. still a good amount otg 

[H2Otown_WX]

I feel like this pattern is similar to recent years where we can't get the -PNA to eject s/w's at us...instead we get huge cutoffs in the desert SW and by the time they ever migrate towards us they just get shredded because of how zonal the flow is over the eastern US. Idk, I'm probably talking out of my arse but that's what I see. Nothing is ever able to amplify and it's starting to feel like a permanent issue.

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I feel like this pattern is similar to recent years where we can't get the -PNA to eject s/w's at us...instead we get huge cutoffs in the desert SW and by the time they ever migrate towards us they just get shredded because of how zonal the flow is over the eastern US. Idk, I'm probably talking out of my arse but that's what I see. Nothing is ever able to amplify and it's starting to feel like a permanent issue.

Nothing is a permanent issue. Will seems to think there will be plenty of shortwaves careening through in this flow…just whether or not we are on the right side of things.  
 

And I asked that of Will, because yesterday he said he expected some changes coming over the next few days in modeling due to the volatility of the projected pattern…so I was not confused. 

[CT Valley Snowman]

Despite only 3.5" on the month here, there has been close to continual snow cover from Dec 2nd through today and along with the cold and frozen bodies of water it has been deep winter.  Sucks that we couldn't cash in more with a bigger snowfall. At least we have a chance of a white Christmas, although I wouldn't call it a high chance, depending on how these shortwaves traverse around the big ridge in the central CONUS. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing is a permanent issue. Will seems to think there will be plenty of shortwaves careening through in this flow…just whether or not we are on the right side of things.  

That’s basically it. However this pattern hasn’t really existed over our last shitty several winters so as you say….we just don’t know. lol.

[DavisStraight]

29 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Most will probably be gone but maybe we get lucky.. still a good amount otg 

I had 3 inches of icy snow before the last 3 inches, too bad, could have been the start of a nice pack.

[ORH_wxman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s basically it. However this pattern hasn’t really existed over our last shitty several winters so as you say….we just don’t know. lol.

It’s def a weird pattern. If we can retrograde that ridge/trough couplet about 200 miles west (not really that large in the scheme of things beyond 200 hours), we’d prob get a pretty damned wintry stretch even if no true biggies. 
 

On the flip side, we know how ugly it could get if everything shifts a little east. 

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s far too much cold from Siberia all the way into SE Canada to have us get warm. That’s very unlikely. The cold is going nowhere . Not to say no screamers but it’s not a warm pattern in the N tier 

[Krs4Lfe]

23 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

I feel like this pattern is similar to recent years where we can't get the -PNA to eject s/w's at us...instead we get huge cutoffs in the desert SW and by the time they ever migrate towards us they just get shredded because of how zonal the flow is over the eastern US. Idk, I'm probably talking out of my arse but that's what I see. Nothing is ever able to amplify and it's starting to feel like a permanent issue.

It is a permanent issue. With a record warm west pacific year after year, that supercharges the pacific jet and/or southern stream and nothing is ever able to phase properly. Back in the 2010s, there would be bowling balls traversing CONUS and anywhere east of the Rockies would do well. Aside from 2021, that has been absent for most of the country. 2020, 2023, and 2024 were very good out west thouhh, with 2023 and 2024 having record snows for Rockies through upper Midwest and Great Lakes (even 2020 and 2019 to some extent.) But the northeast has been the loser time and again, and that’ll continue for as long as the west pacific remains very warm. Climate change will only exacerbate this. Welcome to the new normal. 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

It is a permanent issue. With a record warm west pacific year after year, that supercharges the pacific jet and/or southern stream and nothing is ever able to phase properly. Back in the 2010s, there would be bowling balls traversing CONUS and anywhere east of the Rockies would do well. Aside from 2021, that has been absent for most of the country. 2020, 2023, and 2024 were very good out west thouhh, with 2023 and 2024 having record snows for Rockies through upper Midwest and Great Lakes (even 2020 and 2019 to some extent.) But the northeast has been the loser time and again, and that’ll continue for as long as the west pacific remains very warm. Climate change will only exacerbate this. Welcome to the new normal. 

What

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, MJO812 said:

What

Lot of hyperbole amidst kernels of truth.