December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

these are also means that we're looking at... it wouldn't be shocking that there's some washing out ongoing

for example. members that don't develop a strong -NAO are likely complete torches with very high E US heights. however, ones that do, and especially the ones that shift the block more west, might actually just have a cold airmass in the east. wish there was a way to look at EPS members like that

I wouldn't be shocked if that ridging in the south is too smoothed out too. I would wager probably more of a ridge axis into the upper Mississippi Valley which could then argue for some lower heights in the Northeast The overall structure of that trough across western Canada's coast will be a big player too 

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I could see a marginal get thrown up for far eastern CT/RI/SE MA. the NAM would certainly argue it but sometimes the NAM gets a little overzealous with elevated in stability in these setups. NAM does have a pocket of steeper mid-level lapse rates (and greater CAPE) but I think its overdone in that regard. The key for eastern areas will be little to no shower activity ahead of the main area

mm  I'm thinking more along the lines of synoptic forcing/wind problems that are then entangled with convection along what's inevitably going to be a ribbon echo squall sinuously side winding across the area. I guess wind watch headlines may cover this come to think of it.

Plus... any "subtle" discrete nature to leading convective elements that are embedded in the misty wind smearing rad wash region - dirty warm sector...  Those'll be whisking along within a llv jet.  Those could snap troubled limbs.  NAM is a tad more aggressive with this llv wind max than the Euro ( 12z ) ...haven't looked that GFS.  But the NAM indicated 65+kts at 925 mb between HFD-BED!     That's a whopper if it's for real.  But even the Euro has this wind maxim moving NYC to SE zones/clipping at 55 to 60.   A compromise puts a potential momentum/gust problem across the bulk of the area.  There's still still 2 days to tune this potential.  But the soundings start to look more barotropic as this is all occurring and that means we scale back the protective inversion stuff...  

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Couple inches of snow….hopefully it keeps trending just a touch colder. Better than yesterday’s chinook on Xmas eve. 
 

Has another messy system on 12/26 too. 

I tend to like those messy systems in southern New England

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  I'm thinking more along the lines of synoptic forcing/wind problems that are then entangled with convection along what's inevitably going to be a ribbon echo squall sinuously side winding across the area. I guess wind watch headlines may cover this come to think of it.

Plus... any "subtle" discrete nature to leading convective elements that are embedded in the misty wind smearing rad wash region - dirty warm sector...  Those'll be whisking along within a llv jet.  Those could snap troubled limbs.  NAM is a tad more aggressive with this llv wind max than the Euro ( 12z ) ...haven't looked that GFS.  But the NAM indicated 65+kts at 925 mb between HFD-BED!     That's a whopper if it's for real.  But even the Euro has this wind maxim moving NYC to SE zones/clipping at 55 to 60.   A compromise puts a potential momentum/gust problem across the bulk of the area.  There's still still 2 days to tune this potential.  But the soundings start to look more barotropic as this is all occurring and that means we scale back the protective inversion stuff...  

NAM/GFS do have an insane LLJ at 925 materialize across eastern CT/RI/E MA through Friday morning...so something to definitely keep an eye on if that can be tapped into. This does happen to coincide with the leading edge of the main rain area too, however, there is a stout inversion too

[weatherwiz]

If the fun weather can't come to you, you go to it. I don't think I've ever seen a civil emergency message for wind before. Sure its happened but must be rare

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

NAM/GFS do have an insane LLJ at 925 materialize across eastern CT/RI/E MA through Friday morning...so something to definitely keep an eye on if that can be tapped into. This does happen to coincide with the leading edge of the main rain area too, however, there is a stout inversion too

synoptic wind driven events seldom materialize or verify as advertised.   That's why I lean needing the convective assist - hence the Marginal. 

I just checked btw and they've already gone there in their d-3 sev storms outlook - tho the verbiage is rather bland.  

 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

synoptic wind driven events seldom materialize or verify rather to advertised.   That's way I lean needing the convective assist - hence the Marginal. 

I just checked btw and they've already gone there in their d-3 sev storms outlook - tho the verbiage is rather bland.  

 

yeah and they seem to target coastal VA/NC. 

Should be getting a new D3 update though within the next 5-15 minutes. 

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if we could see some snow squalls into western areas late Friday afternoon 

[Typhoon Tip]

impressive hydrostatic correction with that front, no doubt.   20 dm in 6 hours, the bulk of which happens faster than that, too.   

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I agree a low first half of a season correlates with a low season in general...what I am saying is that a very low December is a much more dire signal in a cool ENSO season than in a warm ENSO.

One site, only 27 winters, percentage of total winter snow:
             n    Oct-Dec   Oct-Jan
El Nino (8)    24%         51%
La Nina (7)   25%         48%
La Nada (12) 37%        59%

SSS, but the outlier seems obvious.

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Aside from random piles, most of the snowcover will be gone by tomorrow here, and I'd imagine most of SNE. Hard to call the 19th cutter a grincher now, unless theres some damage to be done up north. 

[DavisStraight]

2 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Aside from random piles, most of the snowcover will be gone by tomorrow here, and I'd imagine most of SNE. Hard to call the 19th cutter a grincher now, unless theres some damage to be done up north. 

My snow cover will take a hit, but I'll probably have a layer of white ice.

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

My snow cover will take a hit, but I'll probably have a layer of white ice.

There might be Swiss cheese left here. 

[CoastalWx]

Pretty much gone here 

[ORH_wxman]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Honestly, are there any analogs that have that look? I can’t recall that. It reminds me of those stagnant farts that just stays in the room and doesn’t disperse. Just persistent ass.

It’s an unstable longwave pattern so these types don’t last very long. The closest analogs are mostly El Niño years. Early Jan 1952, late Dec 1957 and Dec 1965. Hopefully those roll over the same way because those years had some great patterns a few weeks later. 
 

But I kind of agree with @brooklynwx99, it’s not going to verify exactly as depicted for 10-14 days on end. It’s prob going to trend toward something a bit more stable. Hopefully that means on the snowier side for us and not the furnace side.