December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Let's start by calling the 14th a 'possible event', and leave the word threat for something that actually threatens anything   haha

The Event Horizon

[WinterWolf]

33 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Both AI models have been relatively bullish on the Sunday threat. 

This will be a good test for both of them…if they get this right, that will be pretty impressive.  

[Baroclinic Zone]

18z GEFS are more robust than the op. Better in SE areas. Still buckshot but we stay the course.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the guy "instructing" us why that GFS solution wasn't likely   

That’s bc that same guy NE WX with 135k followers posted an image of the 18z 384 hour gfs yesterday showing snow and icemageddon on Christmas Eve. No wonder why we get such a bad rap. 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That’s bc that same guy NE WX with 135k followers posted an image of the 18z 384 hour gfs yesterday showing snow and icemageddon on Christmas Eve. No wonder why we get such a bad rap. 

A lot of dumb stuff out there these days

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A lot of dumb stuff out there these days

That’s how you get 135k followers lmao . F being right, just post the most extreme and polarizing weather.

[dryslot]

I'm tossing the skynet models.

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm tossing the skynet models.

AI-Eagle looked much better at 18z 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I'm tossing the skynet models.

That may be smart..but if it gets this 14th potential correct, they may be on to something.  

[dryslot]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

AI-Eagle looked much better at 18z 

[8611Blizz]

[dryslot]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

That may be smart..but if it gets this 14th potential correct, they may be on to something.  

Until other guidance is on board, Out they go.

[dryslot]

Nice parade of cutters on the 18z GFS.

[eduggs]

16 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

18z GEFS are more robust than the op. Better in SE areas. Still buckshot but we stay the course.

 

Yeah good to see the GEFS mean with a slight improvement over 12z and better than the op. Every step in the right direction is welcomed. This next 24 hours of modeling will likely reveal if this will be a wintry threat or not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that post reeked of self-soothing   ... It was really drafted up to off-set the fear they, themselves, covet. 

 

That guy is always in defense mode.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Skynet vs Graphcast

 

[H2Otown_WX]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

1989 may be the only rat that began this cold. 

Perhaps rats come in all shapes and sizes

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The cutter winding up at the end of the gfs run for Christmas would shut the ski resorts down for the holiday. Sad 

[ORH_wxman]

Dang we lost our 70F Xmas day

 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The cutter winding up at the end of the gfs run for Christmas would shut the ski resorts down for the holiday. Sad 

That’s CAD-city on that setup. 

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The cutter winding up at the end of the gfs run for Christmas would shut the ski resorts down for the holiday. Sad 

What?

This?  I went looking expecting like 80F and 6” of rain.

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Perhaps rats come in all shapes and sizes

They do... I remember that year well. I was out of Highschool and was REALLY hoping we had turned a corner with new decade of snow possibilities. When January '90 came along I knew the 80's were not dead. They would not die in Boston until '92/93.   

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s CAD-city on that setup. 

Thanks for correcting the rhetoric. 

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The cutter winding up at the end of the gfs run for Christmas would shut the ski resorts down for the holiday. Sad 

 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dang we lost our 70F Xmas day

 

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dang we lost our 70F Xmas day

 

Shocker right. 

[CoastalWx]

It’s a cooler rain basically. Still blows.

[CoastalWx]

Whatever though at day 16.

[ineedsnow]

18z Euro looking much better for Sunday

[Damage In Tolland]

I actually feel very positive for the Saturday night snow . I really do think it’s coming . My gut feeling generally works 

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

18z Euro looking much better for Sunday

Ai also