December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Kitz Craver]

I mean I’m not saying winter is over, I just feel like we could potentially squander a favorable backdrop for winter weather, which exacerbates the ptsd of prior season failures. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

lol. People need to deal with it.  

I’d rather it was still 60°. I’m only happy about the pack because it’s cold. 

But it’s true. It’s 12/7. The whining is dumb. There’s 4 months of snow season left. 

Some on here swear there’s only 8 weeks of snow left. 

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I mean I’m not saying winter is over, I just feel like we could potentially squander a favorable backdrop for winter weather, which exacerbates the ptsd of prior season failures. 

It’s hard to know now because ensembles suck with this pattern.  When you look at many of the individual members on days 10-16 you can see they are actually quite cold in the east.  We are getting skewing on many ensemble averages by some members that crank raging zonal patterns by trying to place the ridge all the way to the east coast.  Probably need to see the WPO go positive in order to have this totally come off the rails   

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I mean I’m not saying winter is over, I just feel like we could potentially squander a favorable backdrop for winter weather, which exacerbates the ptsd of prior season failures. 

The previous seasons do not help, I think most of it is rooted in that.

That’s how I was for a while in the 2010s when SNE was pulling bombs left and right.  12-24” grew on trees it felt like 2010-2015 down there and we couldn’t do 6+ in a single event.

Even 2015-16 sucked overall (all-time bad up north) but CT was getting stripes of 15-inch events through the heart of the state.

We’ve all been there.  It ebbs and flows. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Some on here swear there’s only 8 weeks of snow left. 

This is money time for snow . Dec 1 - Feb  15. After that it loses the appeal . Each day and week is one less to enjoy winter before spring season. Regardless of if it can snow into Morch . It’s not nearly as enjoyable 

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is money time for snow . Dec 1 - Feb  15. After that it loses the appeal . Each day and week is one less to enjoy winter before spring season. Regardless of if it can snow into Morch . It’s not nearly as enjoyable 

 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Damn, already almost 4”.

Yeah, hand up, didn’t read the room.  Had a busy day and didn’t check in since last night.

Some times, These little critters bite.

[Torch Tiger]

34 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I mean I’m not saying winter is over, I just feel like we could potentially squander a favorable backdrop for winter weather, which exacerbates the ptsd of prior season failures. 

 

24 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is money time for snow . Dec 1 - Feb  15. After that it loses the appeal . Each day and week is one less to enjoy winter before spring season. Regardless of if it can snow into Morch . It’s not nearly as enjoyable 

NNE is crushing it though

[Typhoon Tip]

might help the psycho babble if folks finally accept this as the new paradigm

 

[brooklynwx99]

9 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

might help the psycho babble if folks finally accept this as the new paradigm

 

what would you consider “this?” i’d think there’s still a good bit of regression and generally unfavorable -ENSO/-PDO type stuff going on as well along with the compression you always mention 

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

might help the psycho babble if folks finally accept this as the new paradigm

 

Nobody knows.

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

NNE is crushing it though

Perfect. The way it should be.

[Fozz]

1 hour ago, Kitz Craver said:

I mean I’m not saying winter is over, I just feel like we could potentially squander a favorable backdrop for winter weather, which exacerbates the ptsd of prior season failures. 

Yeah, the angst is from the fact that it's December, and people want to see real snow during the holiday season, and it sucks to see it get squandered (assuming the last GFS ends up nailing the next 2 weeks).

And if SNE can't reasonably expect it, then who can? If you have to go all the way to Vermont or Maine to see reliable snow in December, that's going to unsettle a lot of people.

And as others have said, it's been happening for many years now.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

56 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The previous seasons do not help, I think most of it is rooted in that.

That’s how I was for a while in the 2010s when SNE was pulling bombs left and right.  12-24” grew on trees it felt like 2010-2015 down there and we couldn’t do 6+ in a single event.

Even 2015-16 sucked overall (all-time bad up north) but CT was getting stripes of 15-inch events through the heart of the state.

We’ve all been there.  It ebbs and flows. 

I think the reason is that bad seasons up north are 40-80” with long periods of deep winter. 

Bad seasons down in southern New England are like 10-20” with maybe a week total of snow pack. 

[DavisStraight]

31 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

NNE is crushing it though

Northern and Western Mass too

[Torch Tiger]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

might help the psycho babble if folks finally accept this as the new paradigm

 

the burn-in has happened to most, not all.  December was not and won't be a snowy month for the coastal plain of SNE, including here.  I do not see swift changes to that any time soon

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

I think the reason is that bad seasons up north are 40-80” with long periods of deep winter. 

Bad seasons down in southern New England are like 10-20” with maybe a week total of snow pack. 

I just looked at the last 3 seasons at BOS, and it was basically like the mid-Atlantic. 16.8" average.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well tbh., Ray says that fairly often . Maybe he’ll be right . And I think he’d admit that 

What? I don't think I'm one to jump prematurely...all I said was significant snow likely around mid month....to me, "significant " is like greater than 3".

[Snowcrazed71]

So here's a hypothetical. Let's just say we get to the end of the month with less than 5 in of snow for all the areas that are still waiting for snow ( New York Long Island most of Connecticut, Southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island ). Are you going to stop coming on the forum and just give up. I think not, but I'm just wondering ( and let's hope this is worst case scenario )

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

The most interesting thing about this December for me is whether or not this will be year 15 in a row without a white Christmas.

Last one was 2010.

 

id love to know when the last time this area went that long, if ever

[Torch Tiger]

it's two weeks away, we just don't know what will happen for Christmas.  

[Torch Tiger]

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

NNE is crushing it though

They are? 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

They are? 

Apparently NNE consists of a 40 mile stretch of the Green Mountains. 

[TripplePhaser]

So far the Atlantic has been wide open but this guy says that could likely change moving forward. No garentees but if a storm should come to fruction towards the 15th a -NAO/AO should be present unlike back in Dec 2.

https://x.com/ContentWxGuy/status/1997357683729375599

[dryslot]

8 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Apparently NNE consists of a 40 mile stretch of the Green Mountains. 

I mean, Put down the bong.

[dryslot]

-SN, 23/21°F, Looks like 1.0" on the ground.

[powderfreak]

42 minutes ago, dryslot said:

They are? 

It's not wrong... the early season snow has been tied to the upslope regions on the whole.  There was one or two decent synoptic snows for the time of year, but the highest anomalies have been in the Greens, north of the I-89/Winooski Valley.

MRG, Sugarbush and Killington zone has not seen nearly the snow that Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs and Jay have seen.

The forum has a decent posting contingent from northern mesoscale snow areas, along with the central New England zone that can get raked with synoptic snows.

The anomalies max out further north, but it's been a cold start to the season, with snow cover, for a decent aerial zone.

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

 

NNE is crushing it though

-11.6 in the first full week of December is a significant departure for MVL locally.

That doesn’t happen often.  It’s been cold.

BTV is -11.3 to start December.  For a location that seems to run warm.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's not wrong... the early season snow has been tied to the upslope regions on the whole.  There was one or two decent synoptic snows for the time of year, but the highest anomalies have been in the Greens, north of the I-89/Winooski Valley.

MRG, Sugarbush and Killington zone has not seen nearly the snow that Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs and Jay have seen.

The forum has a decent posting contingent from northern mesoscale snow areas, along with the central New England zone that can get raked with synoptic snows.

The anomalies max out further north, but it's been a cold start to the season, with snow cover, for a decent aerial zone.

Sure, Where you are is, As a whole area, NNE is not crushing it, Not sure what the creiteria is for a crushing, The rest of NNE outside of elevations has 4-8" on the ground but it has been plenty cold and building ice, Way ahead of last year in that dept.