November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WinstonSalemArlington]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wait, cold and wet, in a Niña?

Weak Niña?

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wait, cold and wet, in a Niña?

Seeing the slightly above normal precip anomaly doesn't surprise me given the H5 look in the quote post. You have a boundary pressing south and we're right on the edge. It's possible some light rail tracks could be hinted at by guidance.

[WxUSAF]

Another good thread from @griteater. 2017 was the last year we had even respectable December snowfall. 

[Bob Chill]

The weeklies H5 that Will posted is pretty ideal for small/moderate events. I dont really like big downhill/uphill patterns. Potential for bigger storms is better but lots of waiting and high risk of things not turning the corner in the right spot. The broader trough can be more active and shortwaves can get going much further west with good trajectory for the MA. TN Valley overrunners and things like that.  

In dec, big amplified stuff can often have temp problems too. Atlantic air moisture draw isnt nearly as friendly as Jan/Feb. Entrenched cold overrunning is easier to produce in Dec 

[WEATHER53]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Another good thread from @griteater. 2017 was the last year we had even respectable December snowfall. 

I got 89-90 also and 95-96. It’s interesting this season that a lot of occurred event analogs from this  year are matching to positive outcome producing years in the past 

[LongRanger]

I like seeing juicy Pacific systems come ashore near LA, as is progged for this weekend. When other conditions are right, those have produced some of our biggest snows about a week later. May that pattern continue into the coming colder months.

[Eskimo Joe]

57 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The weeklies H5 that Will posted is pretty ideal for small/moderate events. I dont really like big downhill/uphill patterns. Potential for bigger storms is better but lots of waiting and high risk of things not turning the corner in the right spot. The broader trough can be more active and shortwaves can get going much further west with good trajectory for the MA. TN Valley overrunners and things like that.  

In dec, big amplified stuff can often have temp problems too. Atlantic air moisture draw isnt nearly as friendly as Jan/Feb. Entrenched cold overrunning is easier to produce in Dec 

Agreed. Let's lock in with light to mod.ecent one after the other. Don't blow a good pattern on one big storm that melts off in a few days, especially leading into Christmas.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

The weeklies H5 that Will posted is pretty ideal for small/moderate events. I dont really like big downhill/uphill patterns. Potential for bigger storms is better but lots of waiting and high risk of things not turning the corner in the right spot. The broader trough can be more active and shortwaves can get going much further west with good trajectory for the MA. TN Valley overrunners and things like that.  

In dec, big amplified stuff can often have temp problems too. Atlantic air moisture draw isnt nearly as friendly as Jan/Feb. Entrenched cold overrunning is easier to produce in Dec 

Historically I don’t disagree. But we’ve said this quite a few times over the last 10 years and it seems our “hit rate” has become pretty low in a more zonal suppressed “big bowl” pattern also, to the point maybe it’s better to just take our chances on the big hit anymore. But since we don’t control what we get it doesn’t matter.   Yea I’d take a high chance if getting some moderate 3-5” type events over a very low chance at a 10”+ but it doesn’t seem to be that way anymore. We seem to waste the “high probability” looks just as often as the big hit ones lately.