November Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WinstonSalemArlington]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wait, cold and wet, in a Niña?

Weak Niña?

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Wait, cold and wet, in a Niña?

Seeing the slightly above normal precip anomaly doesn't surprise me given the H5 look in the quote post. You have a boundary pressing south and we're right on the edge. It's possible some light rail tracks could be hinted at by guidance.

[WxUSAF]

Another good thread from @griteater. 2017 was the last year we had even respectable December snowfall. 

[Bob Chill]

The weeklies H5 that Will posted is pretty ideal for small/moderate events. I dont really like big downhill/uphill patterns. Potential for bigger storms is better but lots of waiting and high risk of things not turning the corner in the right spot. The broader trough can be more active and shortwaves can get going much further west with good trajectory for the MA. TN Valley overrunners and things like that.  

In dec, big amplified stuff can often have temp problems too. Atlantic air moisture draw isnt nearly as friendly as Jan/Feb. Entrenched cold overrunning is easier to produce in Dec 

[WEATHER53]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Another good thread from @griteater. 2017 was the last year we had even respectable December snowfall. 

I got 89-90 also and 95-96. It’s interesting this season that a lot of occurred event analogs from this  year are matching to positive outcome producing years in the past