WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Nah…I mean it’s November for god sakes. Same shit every year. It’s not supposed to snow here at thanksgiving 95% of time. Give it f’n chance..if December blows. You can claim victory. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Stopped snowing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: Snow at Alex’s replaced by palm trees. I do love palm trees, admittedly. I’ll be in Dominica for Thanksgiving so I’ll get some palm trees no matter what lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nah…I mean it’s November for god sakes. Same shit every year. It’s not supposed to snow here at thanksgiving 95% of time. Give it f’n chance..if December blows. You can claim victory. This is true. Even when I lived in Mass in the”winters of yore” we didn’t really have any meaningful snow until December. Hell, significant November snow is not that common even up here if you go to lower elevations like North Conway or Littleton. I think it’s nice to see the progression, anecdotally it bodes well for winter, but the expectations have to be managed. Chances are even we won’t have a continuous snow pack in the valley, we’ll probably lose it all in an upcoming storm and then rebuild it. Such is life. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 3 minutes ago, alex said: This is true. Even when I lived in Mass in the”winters of yore” we didn’t really have any meaningful snow until December. Hell, significant November snow is not that common even up here if you go to lower elevations like North Conway or Littleton. I think it’s nice to see the progression, anecdotally it bodes well for winter, but the expectations have to be managed. Chances are even we won’t have a continuous snow pack in the valley, we’ll probably lose it all in an upcoming storm and then rebuild it. Such is life. Absolutely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Warm up out ahead of the continental crash ... right on schedule. Question is, how much so. The amplitude can vary on that. But just in principle, it's not unexpected. The climatology for going from +(WPO/EPO) --> -(WPO/EPO) causes a large scale 'seesaw' down stream over N/A. Heights first crash down the spine of the Rockies ~ latitudes in response to upstream initial ridge blossoming. Some of which is non-linear - which means forcing you cannot see ( longer popsicle headache). But that initial reconstruction is not a stable wave structure at large scales. Eventually the wave length opens up and the eastern end of the -(WPO/-EPO) ... becomes more neutral EPO/+PNA... and the cold then floods throughout Canada, spilling in either a big course load, or a series of dumps into the NP-Lakes-NE... This all trengthens the b-c ambience from Colorado to the M/A, whence winter storms form... Hint: the WPO remains in negative ... that's your seed for reloads. Or not...sometimes all of this is a one time deal. Sometimes you get Feb 2015's of 1977s at the other end and more persistence. Anyway, this is probably what's always caused the Indian Summers throughout history. It's probably what caused the January thaws, too. But they are not sustainable; the above described typical progression of events elucidates why those kinds of 'intermission warmups' prove transient. You know, ... it's all a bit like tsunamis behavior. First the shore water retreats seaward, aka Indian Summers ... January thaws... etc, then it comes surging back and over compensates in the other direction: winter expresses. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 26 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Stopped snowing. 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: EPS is shovels in Denver and shorts in SNE. Let’s do it. 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: grilled turkey this year? No one has said the pattern will change in November. Keep up people. Epo on the eps looks good toward end of November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nah…I mean it’s November for god sakes. Same shit every year. It’s not supposed to snow here at thanksgiving 95% of time. Give it f’n chance..if December blows. You can claim victory. Its the same people 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago You look at tomorrow’s event and it just seems like the whole Jet/track is displaced 100 miles north given climo and the sig -NAO pattern. But background warmth in eastern Canada doing its thing…It doesn’t snow much in November, correct; but, this storm/evolution would be one way in which it could happen and it’s not even close in my hood. That, to me, is one key example on how marginal warming is having outsized effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one has said the pattern will change this decade. Keep up people. Epo on the eps looks good toward end of 2020s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago What a colossal joke between the Euro and GFS with the overall evolution and structure of the pattern next week and it goes beyond this. It's legit been increasingly difficult to find any strong model consensus or consistency. How the hell is anyone really supposed to glean a signal when assessing medium-to-long range (particularly longer range and by longer range I mean 8-10+ days out, not seasonal) outside of just basing off "analogs". Literally, who cares what EPS's show past D10 or what the EPO, NAO, PNA, AO, whatever are "forecast" to do. These facets have been irrelevant the last several years and when we've seen these features evolve as is...what was expected in terms out production was still wrong. Until we can figure out what the hell is going on with this model inconsistency and discrepancy it's all really just a big joke. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago And so it begins for places that it should. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, dryslot said: And so it begins for places that it should. Im happy it's swinging north, we don't need it yet, 1-3 is fine with me. We're going to Kokadjo to look at one of their groomers for sale Sunday afternoon and might have enough snow to drive it around the yard there and test everything 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago "EPS looks good" "EPS looks good" blah blah blah, tired of hearing it. It's the same routine every year. 1. EPS shows a big pattern change around Thanksgiving 2. Looks like EPS is delaying the pattern change to around Dec 10. 3. EPS is delaying the pattern change to around Christmas, but don't worry, it's delayed not denied. 4. Well we're into the New Year, but winter us just about to begin. EPS shows the pattern changing in a big way by the 10th. 5. Well looks like the pattern change doesn't occur until the end of Jan but we should be in store for a big Feb...look at that trough on the EPS!!!! 6. winter's over. just couldn't cash in. March comes, finally get a good pattern - now a bit too warm outside of northern New England and elevation. Rinse, wash, repeat. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gotta love the 'ole 3-11" and 1-6" forecast ranges.....must really boost scores. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, dryslot said: And so it begins for places that it should. 3-11” is a real range now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: "EPS looks good" "EPS looks good" blah blah blah, tired of hearing it. It's the same routine every year. 1. EPS shows a big pattern change around Thanksgiving 2. Looks like EPS is delaying the pattern change to around Dec 10. 3. EPS is delaying the pattern change to around Christmas, but don't worry, it's delayed not denied. 4. Well we're into the New Year, but winter us just about to begin. EPS shows the pattern changing in a big way by the 10th. 5. Well looks like the pattern change doesn't occur until the end of Jan but we should be in store for a big Feb...look at that trough on the EPS!!!! 6. winter's over. just couldn't cash in. March comes, finally get a good pattern - now a bit too warm outside of northern New England and elevation. Rinse, wash, repeat. About sums it up lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WxWatcher007 said: 3-11” is a real range now? Apparently, But its a preliminary map and i would think they would tighten that up going forward. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, dryslot said: About sums it up lol At some point soon it will change and we will get crushed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 39 minutes ago, MJO812 said: No one has said the pattern will change in November. Keep up people. Epo on the eps looks good toward end of November My back still hurts from digging out of MJO812 snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: 3-11” is a real range now? That’s a big deal in terms of sensible travel weather. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 18 minutes ago, dryslot said: Apparently, But its a preliminary map and i would think they would tighten that up going forward. The 10% extremes are kinda funny. Big impact event vs a nothingburger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago Just now, dendrite said: The 10% extremes are kinda funny. Big impact event vs a nothingburger. Gives credence to the expected map because of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago I was promised winters of yore return by 2030. Patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 47 minutes ago Share Posted 47 minutes ago 38 minutes ago, dryslot said: And so it begins for places that it should. Hopefully the moose takes cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted 42 minutes ago Share Posted 42 minutes ago 15 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: I was promised winters of yore return by 2030. Patience. Solid nor’easter in SNE last night 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted 38 minutes ago Share Posted 38 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: Solid nor’easter in SNE last night In love with him and the uniforms. Keep him healthy and you have a perennial MVP candidate. The shoulder logo is sick 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago 2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said: They were warned. Worry was legit Ok... There is going to be a warm up for Thanksgiving.... But, it is brief and then things tumble. And it looks like we head into a pretty good Winter pattern after. So, yes.... You are correct about the Thanks giving warm up! (But I'm sure you won't be sad that it will be short lived and Winter will start to.make.its way into our region soon after). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago 10 minutes ago, dendrite said: Solid nor’easter in SNE last night He's the real deal, Love the Uni's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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