November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...

[WinterWolf]

When we are 1-2 days out..they get erratic more times than not. 

[powderfreak]

On the board in town. Taking the 0.1” ha.

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

On the board in town. Taking the 0.1” ha.

 

Nice. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

10 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

On the board in town. Taking the 0.1” ha.

 

It’s about time, you should have had measurable weeks ago. 

[Ginx snewx]

Dumping at SR

[dryslot]

17 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

At 360 hrs…it’s a dam joke anyway.  Doesn’t matter what hour it is at that range. 

Nobody should take any model past 10 days verbatim, But we will know it will be on when we see the 384hr bombs keep showing up every run...........

[dryslot]

Its is dumping on bullwinkle at the loaf

 

[Ginx snewx]

Jump on board Scooters CFS from his buddy Marky Mark

[powderfreak]

25 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s about time, you should have had measurable weeks ago. 

I bet the first week of November down in town is about right to be honest… or at least not outside 1 SD of normal.  I feel like less than half Octobers have whitening accumulations, but I’m sure JSpin has data for down low.  But I’m not talking a tenth from an intense graupel shower core that’s gone 20 minutes after it falls in mid-October.

[Torch Tiger]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I bet the first week of November down in town is about right to be honest… or at least not outside 1 SD of normal.  I feel like less than half Octobers have whitening accumulations, but I’m sure JSpin has data for down low.  But I’m not talking a tenth from an intense graupel shower core that’s gone 20 minutes after it falls in mid-October.

Yeah I think it's earlier for you, but wouldn't wager.  Due to the renegade pebble-fests, or even the gloopy 1/2" that is gone within the hour.  Seems those arrive later as well than even the rough 80's or early 90's.

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Yeah I think it's earlier for you, but wouldn't wager.  Due to the renegade pebble-fests, or even the gloopy 1/2" that is gone within the hour.  Seems those arrive later as well than even the rough 80's or early 90's.

Yeah it’s likely recency bias… at least in town as I’m thinking past decade to 15 years tops.  For the base of the ski resort I’d give it at least 1-2 weeks earlier.

But looking at BTV’s 120 year data the average first trace (which includes graupel, etc) is 10/15 and first 1” is 11/17 and first 3” is 12/3.  And we are probably 1-2 weeks ahead of them.

So maybe this is about the average time of the first inch instead of first measurable?

I just find the first trace to be dubious sometimes… hail, graupel, etc.

[Torch Tiger]

13 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah it’s likely recency bias… at least in town as I’m thinking past decade to 15 years tops.  For the base of the ski resort I’d give it at least 1-2 weeks earlier.

But looking at BTV’s 120 year data the average first trace (which includes graupel, etc) is 10/15 and first 1” is 11/17 and first 3” is 12/3.  And we are probably 1-2 weeks ahead of them.

So maybe this is about the average time of the first inch instead of first measurable?

I just find the first trace to be dubious sometimes… hail, graupel, etc.

Yeah surely it can be dubious.  Standardization should be fair and reliable, though. lol

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jump on board Scooters CFS from his buddy Marky Mark

No

[metagraphica]

Nice, IJD and GON both still at 61 at almost 9pm.  Torch!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Guess it’s nice to see it being modeled…which is the only take away at 15 days out. 

It’s early November. People do this every year. It’s not going to snow.

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s early November. People do this every year. It’s not going to snow.

First flakes in January more fitting with 2020s climo?

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s early November. People do this every year. It’s not going to snow.

You missed the point…the point is sometimes just seeing it way out there is a nice sign. There’s been times of late where you can’t even get a 384hr run to show anything.  Keep your chin up Eeor. 

[alex]

2 hours ago, powderfreak said:

We are flipping over here in town in the valley.

For all purposes it’s a white rain but it is just dumping precipitation.  Feels like 2F away from a true paste bomb.  Bet the hill is getting smoked at 1500+.

Should be a couple of hours before the cold air gets here. It’s warmed up for a bit and it’s now starting to cool off. P&C actually modeled that quite well with rain flipping to snow around midnight as the wind turns NW. the rates have been very low in general, more of a heavy drizzle than rain 

[Torch Tiger]

1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said:

Jump on board Scooters CFS from his buddy Marky Mark

1995-1996 lite winter incoming?  Not 100+" stuff but perhaps 50-80" BOS-ORH?  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You missed the point…the point is sometimes just seeing it way out there is a nice sign. There’s been times of late where you can’t even get a 384hr run to show anything.  Keep your chin up Eeor. 

Eh, the only thing it’s a sign of is that these 300+ hour model runs are completely useless and reckless.

Bottle up today’s temps for the next 6-8 weeks please

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

First flakes in January more fitting with 2020s climo?

Pretty much. We’ve basically had Washington DC snow climo down here for half a decade now

[MJO812]

29 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

1995-1996 lite winter incoming?  Not 100+" stuff but perhaps 50-80" BOS-ORH?  

This is going to be a great winter

[Snowcrazed71]

30 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty much. We’ve basically had Washington DC snow climo down here for half a decade now

Ha... But you keep coming back. If you didn't still have hope of a good season, you wouldn't be on here. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pretty much. We’ve basically had Washington DC snow climo down here for half a decade now

Regression is a bitch. You had Stow VT climo there’s for a decade before that…overachieving on every snow event constantly…it was bound to happen. And it did.   You’ll climb your way back in time.