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November 2025 general discussions and probable topic derailings ...


Typhoon Tip
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17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like there may have been at least one unwarned tornado near Somerset MA. Possible one near Rehoboth.

When I was checking the radar last night it looked like a bit of rotation near Spencer also.. But I thought there's no way.. that was before the line really maxed out though

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Had some hail and thunder to my south last evening along with some strong winds at fropa.
 

Looks like gusts near 50 today. 
 

Still looks like we could have a heck of a 1-3hr period after midnight tomorrow night. Strong LLJ pivots through with rapid pressure rises. Highest potential eastern areas. 

 

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what I thought was interesting about last night was the smell of higher DP air that raced in just ahead of that activity.  It was dark, but the scud above were vaguely lit by the cityscape beneath enough to discern they were tilting NW to SE as they skirted along a WSW trajectory - a physical observation consistent with positive helicity. The temps were mild for the time of the year, completing the setting.

I remember thinking in the moment how unusual those tandem observations were for November ...   Didn't think much of it again until pea-sized hail and rain sheets pushed around by a big woosh of wind swept through a couple of hours later.

 

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kind of reminds me of latter November 1992 the way the pattern's behaving in the models.   There was a small bomb that fired off in the GOM a week or 10 days prior to the Dec 9 classic, and it clipped the coast with some high winds.   It's not an analog per se, not without looking at any guiding metrics ... But, this bombogensis occurring along a BUF-PWM line, tomorrow night just reminds me of that.  

which by the way, 1004 MB in S Ontario, down to 985 E of PWM just 15 hours later is a bomb.  

I'm also seeing a potential that some of this wind has an isallobaric aspect to it.  The storm is deepening and approaching ( fast ) at the same rate, such that the wind ahead isn't as noticable because those two are quasi balanced.  But, soon low gets passed, there you are, in a deep pressure well to climb out of.  That recovery will do so faster than the sub-geostrophic balance and the winds will become particularly nasty.  This would manifest as a sudden surge of very large gusts across the area... I've seen near calm conditions, leaning large tree jet engine blasts in as little as minutes... Then, the situation melds into a CAA burst, which can have topper gusts for general lapsing

A lot of the wind events that are predicted around here fail, because PGF component doesn't exceed the balancing enough.  That thing tomorrow night looks really unbalanced. 

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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Wow decent damage on south coast where line maxed out. 

Can't believe BOX didn't go severe after I sent them video of hail then high winds. Winds absolutely cranked with hail then abruptly stopped 2 mins later from the opposite direction the strongest gusts since last winter shook the house. Limbs down debris from shattered leaves. Quite the night. 

 

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14 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Severe for little peas?

Winds were above 50. Rotating on radar. Those people on the cape got smoked by the cell which passed directly over me. No joke been there done this that was severe. CG and extremely loud thunder. 

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So the squirrels...absolutely huge around here this year!  After such a dry summer/Fall I thought they'd be their typically ragged and ratty little selves but they're not by any stretch.  More like Chihuahua-sized and furry as I've ever seen.  A selective mating outcome?  Genetic anomaly?  Local aberration?  Or...are we in for a season to remember?!  :snowing:

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