ILSNOW Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Sunday at 04:51 PM Canadian is an easy toss!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:03 PM 14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events. Easy toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:11 PM 20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events. It's really quite unfortunate that the GFS is not a very good model. The general model consensus is positive for snow and cold after Thanksgiving and that's all I really need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:24 PM having to drive back north on sunday, I'm watching this closely, but am honestly more just excited for something to track 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM Share Posted Sunday at 05:59 PM Well, we are back to zero because the Euro just came in way different at the end of the week. Last night the Euro looked like the GFS, but now it has suddenly pulled all the energy back into the western US and pulls a bunch of warm air up into Iowa so we get rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted Sunday at 08:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 08:28 PM 2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said: Well, we are back to zero because the Euro just came in way different at the end of the week. Last night the Euro looked like the GFS, but now it has suddenly pulled all the energy back into the western US and pulls a bunch of warm air up into Iowa so we get rain. Luckily the Euro doesn't carry nearly as much weight anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM Share Posted Sunday at 09:48 PM LOT is certainly intrigued. FWIW. Probably should pick the snowblower from Ace Hardware. Dropped it off for pre season maintenance service in October 2019. 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted yesterday at 12:05 AM Share Posted yesterday at 12:05 AM 6 hours ago, mannynyc said: It's really quite unfortunate that the GFS is not a very good model. The general model consensus is positive for snow and cold after Thanksgiving and that's all I really need. 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Luckily the Euro doesn't carry nearly as much weight anymore. So what *is* good? And has NWP really regressed that badly in recent years or it is just perception (which I share)? If the former, why? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted yesterday at 01:59 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 01:59 PM NWS Duluth getting frisky with this one. Here on the shoreline, expecting lower guidance 3-5". But the higher terrain could do well here. The bulk of the precip hitting at night when temps are a little cooler, coupled with colder air mixing in will help with this one. Ground will cool off fast, as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nvck Posted yesterday at 03:15 PM Share Posted yesterday at 03:15 PM Interesting that ILN doesn't mention weekend snow chances at all in the afd, obviously looks unlikely, but not out of the question as the 6z euro and eps show. About 1/2 members of the 0z eps had some sort of snowfall saturday into sunday, I think with this complex of a pattern you can't rule it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago First WWA of the season, so there’s that. Whatever sticks should have staying power. @weatherboif you are out there this should be a good one for you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago Wednesday looks awfully windy. Gusts up to 50 mph across much of the sub. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 3 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Wednesday looks awfully windy. Gusts up to 50 mph across much of the sub. Yeah this could be a sneakily impactful wind event given it's the day before Thanksgiving and all. Could affect both air and road travel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Picked up 0.23" overnight which brings us up to 1.52" for the month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Dense fog and scattered showers this AM. Upgraded to a WSW overnight. I’m still only expecting 3-4” imby but with the combination of wind, busy travel period, and the first significant snowfall of the season I understand why the NWS felt like upgrading most of the southern half of the state. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Winter sets in here late Weds or early Thurs morning, 20cm/7.9" Thursday alone is agreed from both WUN and TWN. For over a week its shown snow every day after that maybe 5cm or less from the lake. This is about the same time as winter starting last year just before the epic dump. I'll be glad to see this horrendous Nov in the back mirror, I much rather jump into deep winter with lots of snow. Today's dim light is my bane, its not dark enough to be cozy but not bright enough to cheer one up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago Rain to wet snow, then it'll freeze up to a ice block. Typical early season snow. UP MI looking at 3ft in some spots with syn/LES combo. Here in town, I think 6" would be a big surprise. 4" max is my thinking. Warm lake. But higher terrain should do well. NWS DLH is good at overestimating. Most storms barely hit min guidance around TH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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