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November 2025 General Discussion


Brian D
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20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events.

It's really quite unfortunate that the GFS is not a very good model. The general model consensus is positive for snow and cold after Thanksgiving and that's all I really need. 

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2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Well, we are back to zero because the Euro just came in way different at the end of the week.  Last night the Euro looked like the GFS, but now it has suddenly pulled all the energy back into the western US and pulls a bunch of warm air up into Iowa so we get rain.

Luckily the Euro doesn't carry nearly as much weight anymore.

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6 hours ago, mannynyc said:

It's really quite unfortunate that the GFS is not a very good model. The general model consensus is positive for snow and cold after Thanksgiving and that's all I really need. 

 

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Luckily the Euro doesn't carry nearly as much weight anymore.

So what *is* good? And has NWP really regressed that badly in recent years or it is just :weenie: perception (which I share)? If the former, why?

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Interesting that ILN doesn't mention weekend snow chances at all in the afd, obviously looks unlikely, but not out of the question as the 6z euro and eps show. About 1/2 members of the 0z eps had some sort of snowfall saturday into sunday, I think with this complex of a pattern you can't rule it out.

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Dense fog and scattered showers this AM. Upgraded to a WSW overnight. I’m still only expecting 3-4” imby but with the combination of wind, busy travel period, and the first significant snowfall of the season I understand why the NWS felt like upgrading most of the southern half of the state. 

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Winter sets in here late Weds or early Thurs morning, 20cm/7.9" Thursday alone is agreed from both WUN and TWN. For over a week its shown snow every day after that maybe 5cm or less from the lake. This is about the same time as winter starting last year just before the epic dump.

I'll be glad to see this horrendous Nov in the back mirror, I much rather jump into deep winter with lots of snow. Today's dim light is my bane, its not dark enough to be cozy but not bright enough to cheer one up.

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