November 2025 General Discussion

[ILSNOW]

Canadian is an easy toss!!

[Baum]

14 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events.

Easy toss.

[mannynyc]

20 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Meanwhile, the Canadian is much weaker and drier with this system, plus it is dry Sunday-Tuesday while the GFS has two more significant events.

It's really quite unfortunate that the GFS is not a very good model. The general model consensus is positive for snow and cold after Thanksgiving and that's all I really need. 

[nvck]

having to drive back north on sunday, I'm watching this closely, but am honestly more just excited for something to track

 

[hawkeye_wx]

Well, we are back to zero because the Euro just came in way different at the end of the week.  Last night the Euro looked like the GFS, but now it has suddenly pulled all the energy back into the western US and pulls a bunch of warm air up into Iowa so we get rain.

[cyclone77]

2 hours ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Well, we are back to zero because the Euro just came in way different at the end of the week.  Last night the Euro looked like the GFS, but now it has suddenly pulled all the energy back into the western US and pulls a bunch of warm air up into Iowa so we get rain.

Luckily the Euro doesn't carry nearly as much weight anymore.

[Baum]

LOT is certainly intrigued. FWIW. Probably should pick the snowblower from Ace Hardware. Dropped it off for pre season maintenance service in October 2019.

[CheeselandSkies]

6 hours ago, mannynyc said:

It's really quite unfortunate that the GFS is not a very good model. The general model consensus is positive for snow and cold after Thanksgiving and that's all I really need. 

 

3 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

Luckily the Euro doesn't carry nearly as much weight anymore.

So what *is* good? And has NWP really regressed that badly in recent years or it is just  perception (which I share)? If the former, why?

[Brian D]

NWS Duluth getting frisky with this one. Here on the shoreline, expecting lower guidance 3-5". But the higher terrain could do well here. The bulk of the precip hitting at night when temps are a little cooler, coupled with colder air mixing in will help with this one. Ground will cool off fast, as well. 

[nvck]

Interesting that ILN doesn't mention weekend snow chances at all in the afd, obviously looks unlikely, but not out of the question as the 6z euro and eps show. About 1/2 members of the 0z eps had some sort of snowfall saturday into sunday, I think with this complex of a pattern you can't rule it out.