Event Discussion-OBS uncertain tracking thread for possible moderate impact event 8A Thu-8A Fri 10/30-31. Mainly 1-3" rains, G 45-55 MPH-mainly coast, and high prob of at least minor coastal flooding - Thursday afternoon high tide cycle.

[donsutherland1]

Updated figures for 9 pm:

[uofmiami]

2.30” in Syosset w/27 mph highest gust & 2.09” in Muttontown w/29 mph highest gust. 

[wthrmn654]

1.48 and winds have really picked up big time all sudden

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

1.57 inches Highland Mills Orange County NY. 

[MJO812]

A 39 year old man from East Flatbush, Brooklyn died this evening due to the flooding. He drowned while saving his dog.

[Picard]

Currently moderate rain, probably winding down - I got a nice burst from that line which brings my event total to 1.33".

[Nibor]

My apartment flooded. So lucky I was home and able to deal with it. 

[wthrmn654]

Rain stops and winds are increasing...

[MANDA]

Tragic.

Just heartbreaking.

Video link:

https://x.com/i/status/1984048618358370771

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

Updated figures for 10 pm:

[MANDA]

https://x.com/i/status/1984014995123048827

 

https://x.com/i/status/1984003692216119640

 

https://x.com/i/status/1983981296260149671

[psv88]

Sad and unacceptable. Was 2 inches of rain. 
 

rain blossomed out here, up to 1.75”

[dmillz25]

2.23” total

[psv88]

2.44” all said and done. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Still raining moderately here.  Up to 2.57" on my automated gage, but it usually runs slightly high.  I'll trust the 4" gage when I check it in the morning.  We had just about an inch after the remnants of the initial heavy batch that flooded Brooklyn passed through, but have been making up for lost time since 

[gravitylover]

The last round of rain brought me to 2.9. It's still drizzling.

[Intensewind002]

Finished with only 0.98" here in Lindenhurst. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Ended with 2.48"

Currently 46.6°

[donsutherland1]

Final storm total rainfall amounts and select records for October 30:

[MANDA]

Yesterday: 1.23"

Two day event total: 1.71"

October: 3.27"

Y.T.D.: 37.65"

[wdrag]

I'll have a wrap up post around 930A inclusive of two day CoCoRaHs and one or two other graphics regarding predictability (the 1+"/ 30 min rainfall was not predictable in my opinion except short fuse warning). 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, Intensewind002 said:

Finished with only 0.98" here in Lindenhurst. 

The shaft zone was roughly the Suffolk border to about 8 miles or so east. I have maybe 1.4” here. Better than it could have been. 

[bluewave]

None of those storm drains in Brooklyn where the worst flooding occurred were built to handle 1.00” of rain in only 15 minutes. While the spots that got over 2” yesterday wasn’t their heaviest daily rainfall event in recent years, 1 inch of rain in 15 minutes is probably close to the all-time records for the individual spots in an around Crown Heights. 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO1727/table/2025-10-30/2025-10-30/daily

2:54 PM	60.0 °F	59.6 °F	99 %	SW	4.4 mph	11.3 mph	29.66 in	0.24 in	1.19 in	0	5w/m²
2:59 PM	60.3 °F	59.9 °F	99 %	SW	3.6 mph	8.3 mph	29.65 in	1.44 in	1.41 in	0	9.6w/m²
3:04 PM	60.3 °F	60.0 °F	99 %	SSW	5.3 mph	10.1 mph	29.66 in	3.78 in	1.84 in	0	11.8w/m²
3:09 PM	60.3 °F	59.9 °F	99 %	SSE	3.7 mph	8.9 mph	29.65 in	4.44 in	2.16 in	0

 

[Sundog]

2.44 total, very solid

[uofmiami]

2.44” in Syosset & 2.16” in Muttontown for storm total. 

[Intensewind002]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

The shaft zone was roughly the Suffolk border to about 8 miles or so east. I have maybe 1.4” here. Better than it could have been. 

We did get some minor tidal flooding along the roads bordering the Great South Bay, Went to Babylon dock and the water was maybe a few inches above the docks themselves at high tide. Seeing the boats at a higher level than you are is always a weird sight regardless of how bad the flooding is

[Brian5671]

1.85 here for rainfall

[wdrag]

Wantage NJ--- this part of, only 1.10. 

[FPizz]

1.85"

[wdrag]

Summary message: I could not go back to review the OHP between 16z-20z/30 for the unfortunate fatalities related to only very short fuse prediction of 1" in 15 minutes over NYC... results as cellar fatalities, again, as in prior city FF.  That's the part that didnt work out in the thread.

Otherwise see graphics below

1) CPC D8 1"+ heavy rain forecast (MDT risk)

2) CoCoRaHs region red and orange dot verification of the main axis of heavy rain (see legend)

3) NYC subforum rainfall

4) EPS 06z/31 5H... note negative tilt lobe to NJ

5) EPS 18z/30 12 hr 170M HFC over NJ...  large 12 hr HFC's need to be contended with as event concerns...given adequate moisture.

You can use these graphics to go back to p1 of this thread to verify the Sunday 10/26 post.  Modeling was helpful for sure.  GEFS rainfall and max gusts were terrible as compared to the EPS and EPSAI modeling.