November 2025 OBS Discussion

[donsutherland1]

Below normal temperatures will prevail through tomorrow. Highs will be mainly in the middle and upper 40s in New York City with lows in the middle and upper 30s.

A milder pattern will then develop afterward. Some rain or rain showers are possible. Once in place, the milder pattern will likely continue into the closing days of November. However, exceptional warmth appears unlikely. The closing days of November could turn cooler.

Meanwhile, today will be Central Park's 1,390th consecutive day without daily snowfall of 4" or more. The record of 1,394 days was set during February 22, 1929 through December 16, 1932. That stretch ended with 6.7" daily snowfall on December 17, 1932.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 12. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.16°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely continue through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +38.30 today. That is the highest SOI value since December 23, 2022 when the SOI reached +50.96.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.027 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 74% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.1° (0.9° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° below the 1981-2010 normal monthly value. 

 

[psv88]

31 now. 

[jm1220]

Temp down to 30. 

[Sundog]

36 degrees where I am but a few 33s popping up just two or three miles east of me. 

[dmillz25]

Down to 40 here

[psv88]

30 now, some areas nearby dipping into the 20s

[Snowlover11]

Euro

[sussexcountyobs]

26

[Dan76]

17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

Euro

Gfs says otherwise.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Gfs says otherwise.

So does the EPS

[SnoSki14]

9 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

So does the EPS

We obviously know it's just a LR OP run. Pattern doesn't look favorable for snow to me. Too much SE ridging, not enough sustained ridging out west. 

[Sundog]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

We obviously know it's just a LR OP run. Pattern doesn't look favorable for snow to me. Too much SE ridging, not enough sustained ridging out west. 

Where do you see the SE ridging?

 

[jm1220]

Down to 27. I think that qualifies as a hard freeze. 

[ForestHillWx]

28 currently. Feels like November. 

[LAVistaNY]

First morning with ice on the  small pond low of 28°

[Intensewind002]

Irredescent cloud in West Babylon this morning