HillsdaleMIWeather Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Officially a Cat 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 7 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Recon measured 158kts in the north eyewall at the surface. This equates to 180-185mph range for surface winds. those winds were not measured at the surface.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27Location: 16.4°N 77.8°WMoving: W at 3 mphMin pressure: 917 mbMax sustained: 160 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 5:00 AM EDT Mon Oct 27Location: 16.4°N 77.8°WMoving: W at 3 mphMin pressure: 917 mbMax sustained: 160 mph. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDreamTraveler Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Third cat 5 of the season. Absolutely insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jsw Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 I downloaded these this morning. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Most recent long-range radar scan. The eyewall remains uniform and intense. It does appear a concentric outer band is trying to form around the periphery of the eyewall. We still have 24-28 hours until landfall. That is plenty of time for an EWRC to begin. The forecast is for Melissa to be a Category 5 at landfall, but internal structural changes could still bring down that intensity to Category 4. But again, that is not necessarily a good thing for the island, as the windfield would expand east towards higher populated areas. I actually do think the intensity will fluctuate down by landfall as I still think outer banding will get its act together and weaken the small eye by tonight. It is very difficult for a high-end TC like this to maintain that intensity for that many hours without fluctuations. Time will tell. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 No words. Just a beast this morning 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 When is it projected to turn north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 8 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said: When is it projected to turn north? I believe it’s already West of the official track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 22 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I believe it’s already West of the official track. It definitely is. Looks like it’s just now starting to gain some latitude Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 31 minutes ago, Jefflaw77 said: When is it projected to turn north? This afternoon is when models have it taking a fairly sharp right turn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Recon first pass: 155 kt FL winds, pressure 912, incredible dropsonde 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 40 inches of rain possible NE Jamaica Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Just looking at radar and satellite you'd think this monster would harmlessly bypass Jamaica to the south. They would need a miracle now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Hopefully there is an ERC prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Latest dropsonde says 913 mb. Max nw side FL wind is 158 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 6 minutes ago, eyewall said: Hopefully there is an ERC prior to landfall. I don't know that they would benefit much....so peak winds would be maybe 140mph instead of 160mph....bit less damage over a tiny area, but a bit more damage over a larger area from a larger wind field and greater surge capacity. It would also stand to increase the rainshield in aerial coverage. I do agree we will see one, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't know that they would benefit much....so peak winds would be maybe 140mph instead of 160mph....bit less damage over a tiny area, but a bit more damage over a larger area from a larger wind field and greater surgge capacity. I do agree we will see one, though. Oh it will be awful no matter what. But we will take any small amount of help we can get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 1 minute ago, eyewall said: Oh it will be awful no matter what. But we will take any small amount of help we can get. I do think the WSW jog is a small break. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Yeah an ERC may put Kingston more in jeopardy in terms of higher winds and rain, but luckily they should not be near the eye wall. Either way really bad situation there. Beautiful island, but not exactly one that has the infrastructure to deal with this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hotair Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Footage of flooding coming in from Dominican Republic this morning is bad enough. Can’t imagine what people of Haiti are going through. However all of Jamaica better seek shelter higher up cause the coastline is about to get decimated. This one reminds me of Wilma as a late storm cat 5, but even that made landfall in Mexico as only a 4. this may well be the most powerful storm to hit the island of Jamaica in recorded history. To put it in perspective 45 deaths were attributed to Gilbert back in ‘88 and that was a C3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 3 minutes ago, Hotair said: Footage of flooding coming in from Dominican Republic this morning is bad enough. Can’t imagine what people of Haiti are going through. However all of Jamaica better seek shelter higher up cause the coastline is about to get decimated. This one reminds me of Wilma as a late storm cat 5, but even that made landfall in Mexico as only a 4. this may well be the most powerful storm to hit the island of Jamaica in recorded history. To put it in perspective 45 deaths were attributed to Gilbert back in ‘88 and that was a C3. Higher up will have stronger winds and heavier rain, too.....ugh...safer from surge, but elevation will amplify the senisble storm impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 If an ERC happens soon, it could mean much worse impacts over bigger areas. Right now the storm is really small. If it turned north right now, eastern Jamaica wouldn't even get hurricane force winds and surge would be minimal outside of the small core. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ATDoel Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 5 hours ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Recon Hunters are currently inside Melissa. Those previous readings were measured in the south quadrant. In Atlantic hurricanes, the south quad typically features weaker winds and higher pressure. The higher winds and lowest pressure (peak intensity) reside in the northeast quadrant. So process that for a minute. The weaker quadrant of the hurricane measured at 923mb with 150mph winds. What do you think they will find in the northeast quadrant? It just depends on forward motion, it isn't basin specific. When Melissa starts moving NE, the strong side will be the SE side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Have we ever seen a cat 5 hurricane make a massive change in direction while maintaining strength? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 Recon may be positioning to make an east to west pass. I say that because their current flight path would miss the eye unless they turn due west.Nevermind. I don't know what I was looking at there. It is still a NE to SW pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Have we ever seen a cat 5 hurricane make a massive change in direction while maintaining strength? It's moving so slow that it may not matter-if it were moving at 10mph and suddenly lurched north then I can see what you're saying... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 910 extrap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted October 27 Share Posted October 27 She’s already passing 78 W. I think the western part of the island and places like Montego Bay could have issues. Basically 12z guidance turns it N now, but I don’t see signs of that quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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