Hurricane Melissa

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, Floydbuster said:

Interesting. I never really look at intensity models once the inner core is established, because often times, all bets are off.

18z Best Track up to 75kt.
 

AL, 13, 2025102518, , BEST, 0, 165N, 752W 75, 976,HU

[hawkeye_wx]

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Hard to believe it's nearly 3 days from landfall based on that radar image. For context, Jamaica is about the size of Connecticut 

[ma blizzard]

31 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

its go time .. multiple VHTs going up 

[Kevin Reilly]

58 minutes ago, ma blizzard said:

its go time .. multiple VHTs going up 

Yep, definitely getting its act together very good outflow in all quadrants.  Sucking in some dry air south, southeast, east side for now should work out though fairly quickly.

[WxWatcher007]

5:00 PM EDT Sat Oct 25
Location: 16.6°N 75.5°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 974 mb
Max sustained: 90 mph

[WxWatcher007]

Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025

Melissa is likely beginning a period of rapid intensification (RI). 
Since both the NOAA-P3 and Air Force Reserve C-130 aircraft sampled 
the system this morning, the satellite presentation has continued to 
improve, with cold -75 to -80 C cloud tops wrapping around the 
center with hints of an eye starting to appear on visible images. 
The eye is also becoming better defined on radar images out of 
Jamaica with an overall diameter of around 20 n mi. In addition, an 
earlier GMI microwave pass received after the prior advisory showed 
a well-defined cyan ring on the 37-GHz, which is often a harbinger 
of RI. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates were T5.0/90 kt from 
SAB, and T4.5/77 kt from TAFB. The objective estimates from UW-CIMSS 
were a little lower, but are also quickly rising, and the initial 
intensity will be set at 80 kt this advisory, blending these 
intensity estimates. 

The hurricane now appears to be moving slowly westward, at an 
estimated motion of 275/3 kt. A narrow mid-level ridge has built in 
to the north of Melissa, and should be the main steering feature 
over the next 24-48 hours to help move the hurricane slowly 
westward. The deep-layer steering vector still has a slight 
southward component, and it wouldn't be surprising to even see a 
little south of due west motion occur, like the Google DeepMind 
ensembles and ECMWF-AI model have been suggesting in the short-term 
forecast. After the next couple of days, the ridging to the north 
becomes quickly eroded by a shortwave trough moving across the 
southeastern United States. The net result of this changing synoptic 
pattern is that Melissa is expected to turn rather abruptly 
northward and northeastward by the early to middle part of next 
week. Compared to this morning, the track guidance has become more 
tightly clustered in the across track direction, and even the 12z 
GFS run, which was previous a eastward outlier, is now in better 
agreement with the track guidance suite showing a direct landfall in 
Jamaica. The main uncertainty is related to the amount of 
acceleration that Melissa will undergo after it turns to the 
northeast, and there remains large spread in the along-track 
direction in both the deterministic and ensemble guidance in the day 
3-5 time frame. The NHC track forecast is only slightly more 
poleward compared to the prior forecast over the first 12-24 hours, 
and convergences very close to the prior track thereafter. This 
track is roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI track guidance. 
On this track, this brings Melissa's core near Jamaica early on 
Tuesday, and early on Wednesday along the eastern Cuba provinces, 
where a hurricane watch is now in effect. 

Rapid intensification appears to have started, and assuming Melissa 
stays far enough south of Jamaica over the next couple of days, 
there appear few impediments to its intensification in the 
short-term. Both the hurricane-regional models and the Google 
DeepMind ensembles suggest RI could continue for the next 36 to 48 
hours. In fact, once again 4/5th s of the latter 50 member ensemble 
are forecasting a peak intensity of Category 5 intensity. The 12z 
HAFS-A run also showed a peak intensity of Category 5 in 48 hours, 
and both HAFS-A/B have been suggesting a similar peak on and off 
over the past few days. Given the current trends, the NHC intensity 
forecast now shows a 140 kt peak in 48 hours, in general agreement 
with this aggressive guidance. Afterwards, some inner-core 
oscillations such as eyewall replacement cycles could lead to 
fluctuations in intensity before its first landfall in Jamaica. It 
is worth stressing that there is very little practical difference 
in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and 
Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when moves over 
Jamaica early next week. Land interaction will likely lead to some 
weakening as it moves northeastward across Jamaica, but the storm 
will likely also grow in size and is still forecast to be a major 
hurricane when it moves over Cuba by the middle of this week. Only 
after this period that southwesterly shear begins to increase in 
earnest after it moves into the Southwestern Atlantic. The NHC 
intensity forecast continues to be on the high end of the overall 
guidance, siding with the higher intensity aids such as GDMI (which 
has been the best preforming intensity guidance thus far this year) 
and HAFS-A, but all the hurricane-regional models show a peak 
intensity of at least Category 4 intensity. 
 
Needless to say, there is a very serious situation, in terms of 
catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica 
and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area 
currently under a Hurricane Warning. 
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica:   A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy 
rainfall is expected to begin tonight, causing catastrophic and 
life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides.  Extensive 
infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication 
outages, and potentially prolonged isolation of communities is 
likely.  A life-threatening storm surge is also likely along 
portions of the southern coast early next week. All preparations 
should be completed today.
 
2. Haiti:  Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and 
landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next 
week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and 
potentially prolonged isolation of communities.  Strong winds could 
also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula.
 
3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce catastrophic 
flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the 
country.
 
4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos:  
Monitor Melissa closely.  There is an increasing risk of a 
significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the 
middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening 
flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is 
now in effect for portions of eastern Cuba.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 16.6N  75.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/0600Z 16.7N  75.9W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  26/1800Z 16.7N  76.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 36H  27/0600Z 16.7N  77.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 48H  27/1800Z 16.9N  77.6W  140 KT 160 MPH
 60H  28/0600Z 17.6N  77.4W  130 KT 150 MPH
 72H  28/1800Z 18.8N  76.7W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  29/1800Z 22.0N  73.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  30/1800Z 27.0N  69.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin

[Supercane]

Jamaica's major hurricane history is not that extensive. Since 1900, only 4 major hurricanes have made a direct hit on the island:

• Unnamed 1903 (Cat 3 / 105kt)
• Unnamed 1912 (Cat 3 / 100kt)
• Charlie 1951 (Cat 3 / 110kt)
• Gilbert 1988 (Cat 4 / 115kt)

Additionally, the 1903 hurricane, Charlie, and Gilbert all cut through the island from east to west relatively quickly. The 1912 hurricane hit the western tip. So, Melissa's forecast intensity (strong Cat 4 or Cat 5), slow forward speed, and angle of approach all combine to make this a highly unusual situation. 

[GaWx]

22 minutes ago, Supercane said:

Jamaica's major hurricane history is not that extensive. Since 1900, only 4 major hurricanes have made a direct hit on the island:

• Unnamed 1903 (Cat 3 / 105kt)
• Unnamed 1912 (Cat 3 / 100kt)
• Charlie 1951 (Cat 3 / 110kt)
• Gilbert 1988 (Cat 4 / 115kt)

Additionally, the 1903 hurricane, Charlie, and Gilbert all cut through the island from east to west relatively quickly. The 1912 hurricane hit the western tip. So, Melissa's forecast intensity (strong Cat 4 or Cat 5), slow forward speed, and angle of approach all combine to make this a highly unusual situation. 

Lowest SLP on record Jamaica 958 Charlie followed by 960 Gilbert. 

[hawkeye_wx]

97 kts flight level, 970 mb extrap

[Nibor]

Melissa is likely currently in or starting RI now.