The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[high risk]

Seems to be setting up a regional model vs global model battle.     Good to see multiple CAMs in the 00Z suite give much of us at least 0.5" out of this event.

[Weather Will]

WB OZ ICON is a whiff.

[Amped]

There's an inverted troff south of bermuda that is causing all the difference on model runs.   The gfs and American models show it slowly moving north and dispersing it while the main coastal moves up into NC/VA.

 

Non-American models are showing it quickly moving northwest and forming into a second low pressure somewhere well east of NC which shreds the other low closer to the Carolina coast

 

One of the smaller features I've ever seen cause chaos in a forecast.

 

Edit: 00z GFS initialization looks further west with that feature. It might be caving in.

 

 

[Ji]

Gfs is basically a shutout

[Amped]

00z Euro brought the storm back for NYC and NJ at least. We're still SOL.