The return of the elusive Nor'easter. Drought buster or bust?

[high risk]

Seems to be setting up a regional model vs global model battle.     Good to see multiple CAMs in the 00Z suite give much of us at least 0.5" out of this event.

[Weather Will]

WB OZ ICON is a whiff.

[Amped]

There's an inverted troff south of bermuda that is causing all the difference on model runs.   The gfs and American models show it slowly moving north and dispersing it while the main coastal moves up into NC/VA.

 

Non-American models are showing it quickly moving northwest and forming into a second low pressure somewhere well east of NC which shreds the other low closer to the Carolina coast

 

One of the smaller features I've ever seen cause chaos in a forecast.

 

Edit: 00z GFS initialization looks further west with that feature. It might be caving in.

 

 

[Ji]

Gfs is basically a shutout

[Amped]

00z Euro brought the storm back for NYC and NJ at least. We're still SOL.

[SLPressure]

A significant change in the model guidance from yesterday is the
lack of rapid phasing of the two mid-level cutoffs. Most guidance
now show a gradual phasing of the two vort centers, a process that
plays out over a two to three day period. As a result, there could
now be two surface lows that develop in tandem along the broad
frontal/baroclinic zone that stretches from the Carolinas to well
off the southern New England coast. This is important for our area
as it will displace the strongest winds to east of the Delmarva and
also has led to a big decrease in overall rain totals for the area.

As a result, we likely see an initial surge of wind and rain moving
into the area Sunday morning as the baroclinic zone takes hold
across the Mid-Atlantic. The strongest winds are going to occur
Sunday morning, gusting around 25-35 mph and up to 35-40 mph along
the immediate Western Shore of the Chesapeake. Lesser, but still
breezy at times, west of the Blue Ridge with gusts around 20-25 mph.
A steady rain overspread the area early Sunday morning and persists
through Sunday night. For those west of the Blue Ridge it likely
will be a steady drizzle to light rain, with more light to moderate
east of the Blue Ridge. Rainfall totals are around half to three
quarters of an inch, with 1.00-1.50" along/east of I-95.

The wind forecast is lower than what we had yesterday, so probably
will not reach Wind Advisory criteria along the Western Shore on
Sunday. Cannot rule out some sporadic gusts around 45-50 mph, but
the threat for frequent gusts to that level are much lower. Temps
struggle to reach the low to mid 60s Sunday.

[dailylurker]

Looks like "bust". Shocker lol

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Looks like "bust". Shocker lol

This is the part of the winter storm cycle where we all say we never REALLY thought we were getting 1-2’ and it will be nice just to see the grass turn white. 

[snowfan]

6Z HRRR and NAM still drop a general .5 to 1”+ for much of the area east of 15. 

[snowfan]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is the part of the winter storm cycle where we all say we never REALLY thought we were getting 1-2’ and it will be nice just to see the grass turn white. 

I only wanted enough to see the ground white, not enough to shovel

[CAPE]

From latest Mount Holly AFD-

Latest deterministic model guidance has trended weaker and east with a more elongated low pressure system compared to previous forecasts. What this means is that the QPF forecast has been lowered. Even with this current trend, coastal impacts are still expected to be significant. Also, with these run to run variations of the deterministic guidance, it is important to look at the ensembles guidance which does still have both outcomes of a stronger and more west placement of the low along with the weaker eastward low. Due to this spread and uncertainty, not too many changes were made overall aside from the QPF forecast. Guidance will likely continue to struggle and vary from run to run with this system until it actually forms a well defined low pressure center sometime today or tonight.

This is pretty notable on the 0z EPS, resulting in decent precip extending further inland on the mean.

[dailylurker]

I'm hugging the NAM 3k. It looks pretty rainy east of 95 starting tonight. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I'm hugging the NAM 3k. It looks pretty rainy east of 95 starting tonight. 

lol that would be like 2"+ here.

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol that would be like 2"+ here.

Yeah. It crushed your area. Pretty solid here too. 1-2" east of 95 to the bay. Flat lands 2-3". 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO

[87storms]

Looks like we're mostly stuck between the NS vort and coastal...with a general lack of phasing.

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Looks like we're mostly stuck between the NS vort and coastal...with a general lack of phasing.

This is why you always want to root for the northern stream to dive south of us. We get the warm air adcection precip, the transfer, and the upper level cold conveyor belt on the back side. It's the easiest and most reliable way to win.

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

This is why you always want to root for the northern stream to dive south of us. We get the warm air adcection precip, the transfer, and the upper level cold conveyor belt on the back side. It's the easiest and most reliable way to win.

We like to see it, but rooting for it won't make it happen. 

The general flow in a Nina with overall lack of an extended southern jet make it a pretty difficult outcome. 

[nj2va]

Don’t worry 20:1 ratios will save us 

[Brasiluvsnow]

My kid is coming from Charlotte to NYC Sunday,,,driving and leaving early AM so I hope this storm is a bust

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO

That looks like I winter storm disappointment map; and so it begins!  thinking we are getting 1-2 feet of snow and reality is 3-6" maybe?

[IronTy]

I woke up to a wet yard, apparently it rained sometimes before dawn.  Bummer as I was planning on cutting the grass and doing yardwork before the storm.  

[WxUSAF]

#TeamNAMRideOrDie

[JenkinsJinkies]

Will the Niña dying in Jan/Feb finally open the floodgates 2018 style or did the 22-23 enso break another part of the atmosphere and now it’s going to rain less here as well as snow less?

[TSSN+]

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

Don’t worry 20:1 ratios will save us 

How much does 0:1 produce? 

[konksw]

What effect do with think the sun angle will have?

[JenkinsJinkies]

5 minutes ago, konksw said:

What effect do with think the sun angle will have?

55 and rain instead of 45 and rain

[TSSN+]

48 minutes ago, konksw said:

What effect do with think the sun angle will have?

Rain will evaporate quicker than it can accumulate. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

When is it going to be our turn?

[peribonca]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

When is it going to be our turn?

Watch it trend back to a nice hit in the next few runs