high risk Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Seems to be setting up a regional model vs global model battle. Good to see multiple CAMs in the 00Z suite give much of us at least 0.5" out of this event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago WB OZ ICON is a whiff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago There's an inverted troff south of bermuda that is causing all the difference on model runs. The gfs and American models show it slowly moving north and dispersing it while the main coastal moves up into NC/VA. Non-American models are showing it quickly moving northwest and forming into a second low pressure somewhere well east of NC which shreds the other low closer to the Carolina coast One of the smaller features I've ever seen cause chaos in a forecast. Edit: 00z GFS initialization looks further west with that feature. It might be caving in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Gfs is basically a shutout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 00z Euro brought the storm back for NYC and NJ at least. We're still SOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago A significant change in the model guidance from yesterday is the lack of rapid phasing of the two mid-level cutoffs. Most guidance now show a gradual phasing of the two vort centers, a process that plays out over a two to three day period. As a result, there could now be two surface lows that develop in tandem along the broad frontal/baroclinic zone that stretches from the Carolinas to well off the southern New England coast. This is important for our area as it will displace the strongest winds to east of the Delmarva and also has led to a big decrease in overall rain totals for the area. As a result, we likely see an initial surge of wind and rain moving into the area Sunday morning as the baroclinic zone takes hold across the Mid-Atlantic. The strongest winds are going to occur Sunday morning, gusting around 25-35 mph and up to 35-40 mph along the immediate Western Shore of the Chesapeake. Lesser, but still breezy at times, west of the Blue Ridge with gusts around 20-25 mph. A steady rain overspread the area early Sunday morning and persists through Sunday night. For those west of the Blue Ridge it likely will be a steady drizzle to light rain, with more light to moderate east of the Blue Ridge. Rainfall totals are around half to three quarters of an inch, with 1.00-1.50" along/east of I-95. The wind forecast is lower than what we had yesterday, so probably will not reach Wind Advisory criteria along the Western Shore on Sunday. Cannot rule out some sporadic gusts around 45-50 mph, but the threat for frequent gusts to that level are much lower. Temps struggle to reach the low to mid 60s Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Looks like "bust". Shocker lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 9 minutes ago, dailylurker said: Looks like "bust". Shocker lol This is the part of the winter storm cycle where we all say we never REALLY thought we were getting 1-2’ and it will be nice just to see the grass turn white. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago 6Z HRRR and NAM still drop a general .5 to 1”+ for much of the area east of 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted 21 minutes ago Share Posted 21 minutes ago 37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: This is the part of the winter storm cycle where we all say we never REALLY thought we were getting 1-2’ and it will be nice just to see the grass turn white. I only wanted enough to see the ground white, not enough to shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 14 minutes ago Share Posted 14 minutes ago From latest Mount Holly AFD- Latest deterministic model guidance has trended weaker and east with a more elongated low pressure system compared to previous forecasts. What this means is that the QPF forecast has been lowered. Even with this current trend, coastal impacts are still expected to be significant. Also, with these run to run variations of the deterministic guidance, it is important to look at the ensembles guidance which does still have both outcomes of a stronger and more west placement of the low along with the weaker eastward low. Due to this spread and uncertainty, not too many changes were made overall aside from the QPF forecast. Guidance will likely continue to struggle and vary from run to run with this system until it actually forms a well defined low pressure center sometime today or tonight. This is pretty notable on the 0z EPS, resulting in decent precip extending further inland on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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