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"Potentially" powerful Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain-especially south of I84, and fairly high impact sct coastal gusts 50+ MPH and possibly moderate or greater coastal flooding at the midday Sun and Monday high tide cycles.


wdrag
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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

LOL CMC

This storm is becoming a dud for many areas outside the coast

gem_apcpn_neus_29.png

I would gladly take an inch here, the problem is I don't trust how I get it, either with a last minute miracle wraparound or 120 hours of drizzle

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Probably not done trending east...went from a storm to a miss back to a storm and now going back to a miss

With the way things have been i could see it trending back west or way east at this point lmao

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8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I would consider less than an inch of rain and some gusts maybe over 40 a dud here too.

Same here, though that's the likely outcome (or maybe even worse). It is what it is, at least it didn't happen with a snowstorm or hurricane. 

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1 minute ago, mob1 said:

Same here, though that's the likely outcome (or maybe even worse). It is what it is, at least it didn't happen with a snowstorm or hurricane. 

Actually a hurricane can scoot out to sea, no thank you

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Just now, mob1 said:

That 6 inch jackpot on the Jersey coast will likely go down to 5.9"

There is a significant chance that 18z will show almost no precip in PA despite the 4 inch amounts shown there. 

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Just now, Sundog said:

Actually a hurricane can scoot out to sea, no thank you

To each his own.

Either way, the weather has been exceedingly boring for a while now so it kind of sucks that any semblance of excitement the models showed is gone now.

Here's to an amazing winter.

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2 minutes ago, mob1 said:

To each his own.

Either way, the weather has been exceedingly boring for a while now so it kind of sucks that any semblance of excitement the models showed is gone now.

Here's to an amazing winter.

Ever since I got a rain gauge the biggest event I have recorded is 0.2 inches lol what a jinx

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If 00z models are more or less consist with these 12z solutions then we know for almost certain where this is headed.  WPC 7 day qpf has shifted precio max to BOS.  Still have 1-3” soaking for most of this forum but dubious based on 12z global I would think.  These phasing situations are murder.

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Looking at the dry start to October, the guidance had been showing what would be a fairly uncommon event. Perhaps, in retrospect, if rainfall amounts wind up becoming greatly reduced, the lesson is that until one is in the near range (< 3 days out), one should be skeptical of statistical outlier events, even when there is strong model support. The model support was based on the idea of a complex phasing situation, which, itself, is difficult for models to handle in the medium-range and beyond.

A scenario concerning slower developing system that grazes the coastal plain (Long Island and eastern New England should still do well) is becoming more probable. We'll see what the later model runs show.

For Central Park, here are the maximum one- and two-day rainfall events following a completely dry first week of October, as was the case this year.

image.png.1516b2efb7f435ea1b2d599a8fc7aebd.png

What still seems more certain is that the development of a drier pattern consistent with the development of an NAO-/AO- following the nor-easter remains on track.

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