OBS for moderate coastal impact Nor'easter Sun-Mon 10/12-13/25 with needed rain everywhere. To minimize any disruptions review NWS warnings-statements.

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Neblizzard said:

Just don’t bother tracking 7 days out, heck wait 24 hours in. 

3 days out

[wthrmn654]

Interesting, nws just updated the coastal flood watch and raised water levels especially for eastern Suffolk. 

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

Interesting, nws just updated the coastal flood watch and raised water levels especially for eastern Suffolk. 

There’s going to be a storm offshore, just delayed and not as intense as previously thought. Also the impacts away from the immediate coast will be minimal.

[wthrmn654]

3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

There’s going to be a storm offshore, just delayed and not as intense as previously thought. Also the impacts away from the immediate coast will be minimal.

But again I said they raised the flood #s kinda goes against everything seen today kinda lol

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

But again I said they raised the flood #s kinda goes against everything seen today kinda lol

PRolonged onshore flow though...slow mover

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Guess we keep watering. Would be nice to give the sprinklers a break. 

you're going to get your first freeze before you get any kind of meaningful rain

[wthrmn654]

Oh let's not forget we still have a fairly decent  leaf canopy on the trees still. ..

[TriPol]

Is it true that Joe Bastadi called this the storm of the century earlier this week?

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Winter is going to be fun

Right up until the line forms on the GW bridge every damn week

[cleetussnow]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Ever since I got a rain gauge the biggest event I have recorded is 0.2 inches lol what a jinx

Burn your snow stake please. 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

Ever since I got a rain gauge the biggest event I have recorded is 0.2 inches lol what a jinx

Those things are absolutely useless.  I got one in 2005 and had two months of fun with a digital rain gage measuring heavy rains in September and October 2005 and then the thing broke.

Got one after that and it also broke after a heavy rainfall.

Now I just measure rain in a marked glass tube.

 

[mob1]

NAM doubles down 

[NJwx85]

9 minutes ago, mob1 said:

NAM doubles down 

It’s doing its typical over amped garbage. 

[psv88]

19 minutes ago, mob1 said:

NAM doubles down 

Includes sleet though 

[mob1]

ICON and RGEM both look abysmal 

[wthrmn654]

34 minutes ago, mob1 said:

ICON and RGEM both look abysmal 

Icon is better for some but not all lol

And rgem looks fairly nice. To the end of run

[the_other_guy]

this forum and these model fluctuations!

Wait til 48 hours out before you go wild.

 

Like slamming your thumb with a hammer over and over again.

 

The best storms we have ever gotten firm up within 48 hours and dont involve a week of social media BS

[MJO812]

Gfs east

[jm1220]

Turning into just a nasty nuisance for most of the long weekend for many. 

[RU848789]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

BUT a State of Emergency for all 21 counties in NJ - so they can cover their you know whats so they don't get blamed..........

Off base with this criticism, like most people who say such things. Declaring the SOE is simply for planning purposes so the State is ready to release funds for emergency response and recovery when and after a natural disaster strikes. It doesn't shut anything down, per se. 

https://nj.gov/njoem/about-us/state-of-emergency.shtml#:~:text=What is a State of,event exceeds the State's resources.

[Wxoutlooksblog]

The EPS had been hinting of a more southern/offshore track on most of its runs. Some of the operational models now picking up on that idea. And the push of cool dry air down from the north with high pressure ahead of the storm argues it. Maybe the nw quadrant around the storm's center is depleted of moisture. Maybe there are two distinct areas of precip one associated with the northern stream the other separate one way down south. 24 hours from yesterday's clarity nothing is now clear. We watch and wait for further guidance.

WX/PT

 

[Stormlover74]

Just now, RU848789 said:

Off base with this criticism, like most people who say such things. Declaring the SOE is simply for planning purposes so the State is ready to release funds for emergency response and recovery when and after a natural disaster strikes. It doesn't shut anything down, per se. 

https://nj.gov/njoem/about-us/state-of-emergency.shtml#:~:text=What is a State of,event exceeds the State's resources.

It needs to be renamed. People don't know what state of emergency actually means

[MANDA]

4 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

BUT a State of Emergency for all 21 counties in NJ - so they can cover their you know whats so they don't get blamed..........

All these phantom States of Emergency are a joke and they are going to dilute the message some day when they are truly needed. 

Used to be they were reserved for events like a Sandy or very significant snowstorms / blizzards.  Now they are issued for next to nothing and certainly nothing you would ask for Federal funds for.  Not saying this coming event will be nothing at the immediate coast.  Beach locations were going to get the worst of things from this since the get go.  It is looking less severe as we get closer to the event and certainly nothing you need a State of Emergency for 48-60 in advance for the entire state no less.  Surprised he didn't hold a news conference.

[Dan76]

1 minute ago, MANDA said:

All these fathom States of Emergency are a joke and they are going to dilute the message some day when they are truly needed. 

Boy who cried wolf 

[Sundog]

Well that was fun

[MANDA]

4 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

Boy who cried wolf 

Repeatedly.  

[IrishRob17]

23 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

It needs to be renamed. People don't know what state of emergency actually means

People don't even read what the State of Emergency is specifically for, they just assume it means they are supposed to stay home. Some times that is the case, often it isn't. 

[wdrag]

Noting the 18z EC and ECAI OP holding the northern stream closed low entity stronger and longer likely negating a phase with the Se USA trof.  Will reword-soften the headline if ensembles and 00z-06z/11 cycles continue similarly eastward. For now, I dont know how this resolves.  Checking back tomorrow.

 

[MJO812]

Euro is more east

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, wishcast_hater said:

The bigger joke is the models.  People will defend them and say how much more advanced they are and all the extra data that is input into them and the result is always the same.  Waffling and uncertainty even up until game time. 

Absolutely.  The timing is awful.  I understand the magnitude, intensity, winds, and type of precipitation, but why waffling with the onset of precipitation 72 hours out?