Cyclone-68 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago Yup history pretty much slams the door in this being a threat to us. Hopefully we can summon some home grown which would make things slightly easier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much Its really close 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its really close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Its really close Big shift west hopefully the better models do also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Yup history pretty much slams the door in this being a threat to us. Hopefully we can summon some home grown which would make things slightly easier I don't think people realize how hard it is to get true CVs this way. Not just here in New England, but the entire U.S. coastline. I went back the other day and ran some numbers. Since the start of our exceptionally busy period of Atlantic activity in 2017, there have been 157 named storms in the basin. Only 19, or 12% of those systems, have been CVs--which I defined as developing within about 5 degrees of the Cabo Verde Islands. Of those 19 CVs, only 3 (16%) have impacted land. Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Larry in 2021. Now, to the point that some have made, Florence and Larry were infamously locks to go OTS before they weren't, but statistically that's rare. CVs that made landfall accounts for just 1.9% of all the storms that developed in the 2017-25 period. It takes an extraordinary set of circumstances for CVs to hit the US. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago 38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much It would, though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: gets it to 914 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Dan76 said: gets it to 914 Yeah that will rearrange some beaches, even without a landfall. I wonder if the models are keying in on some baroclinic fourcing. Wind field really expands so that would be the only way to maintain such ridiculously low pressures. (Obviously over modeled) Anything sub 940 north of 30 would be unprecedented in the modern era. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much With that HP there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Yeah that will rearrange some beaches, even without a landfall. I wonder if the models are keying in on some baroclinic fourcing. Wind field really expands so that would be the only way to maintain such ridiculously low pressures. (Obviously over modeled) Anything sub 940 north of 30 would be unprecedented in the modern era. Except Fiona! What a great chase that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago I'm always fond of TC's that make hairpin turns. We'll see if Erin does as advertised. I'm hoping it can get close enough to give us some rain. Desperately dry up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Hazey said: I'm always fond of TC's that make hairpin turns. We'll see if Erin does as advertised. I'm hoping it can get close enough to give us some rain. Desperately dry up here. Looks like you're in the same boat as us, but Newfoundland is still close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 hours ago, ineedsnow said: Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much with this flow structure aloft? it would take more than God's will actually. It's more apt to say ...what we are looking at is God's will NOT to bring this TC to New England. This has been a stalwart consistent limitation for days and days and model run after model run, all but 100% ... all along, yet for some reason, some of you cannot seem to even see or sense the intuitive reason why it is impossible to bring a TC up to New England with polar jet drilling straight at the region. It's like believing the fake news that it's possible for an ice cream cone to survive a fire hose I guess. We live in an era where scientific advice, let alone learning, are allowably suspended. It's not your fault. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 0.0% chance. Stop being stupid. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago This is about as clear a recurve pattern as you can get for the US east coast. Has been for days and days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: This is about as clear a recurve pattern as you can get for the US east coast. Has been for days and days... I lost sleep tracking this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: I lost sleep tracking this No one’s fault but your own there . Was pretty obvious for a while this had no chance lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The ridge developing around Nova Scotia is the most interesting piece. The "giant" gyre is also sliding east and north with time... It's the feature of a developing -NAO... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: with this flow structure aloft? it would take more than God's will actually. It's more apt to say ...what we are looking at is God's will NOT to bring this TC to New England. This has been a stalwart consistent limitation for days and days and model run after model run, all but 100% ... all along, yet for some reason, some of you cannot seem to even see or sense the intuitive reason why it is impossible to bring a TC up to New England with polar jet drilling straight at the region. It's like believing the fake news that it's possible for an ice cream cone to survive a fire hose I guess. We live in an era where scientific advice, let alone learning, are allowably suspended. It's not your fault. Just like in winter, Not getting anything into NE with that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: with this flow structure aloft? it would take more than God's will actually. It's more apt to say ...what we are looking at is God's will NOT to bring this TC to New England. This has been a stalwart consistent limitation for days and days and model run after model run, all but 100% ... all along, yet for some reason, some of you cannot seem to even see or sense the intuitive reason why it is impossible to bring a TC up to New England with polar jet drilling straight at the region. It's like believing the fake news that it's possible for an ice cream cone to survive a fire hose I guess. We live in an era where scientific advice, let alone learning, are allowably suspended. It's not your fault. just need to lift that out a bit and move it up the coast before it gets kicked out.. 6 days out anything can happen and its close enough where we track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago dropped to -5% chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago DO NOT LOOK. GFS OP has formable Fernand. Well within believable range. Maybe get lucky in the tracking of having a storm on the grid till the end of October. Likely not given the phase of the MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 2 hours ago, Hazey said: I'm always fond of TC's that make hairpin turns. We'll see if Erin does as advertised. I'm hoping it can get close enough to give us some rain. Desperately dry up here. Yeah you guys have had one tough summer. I have a friend in Cape Breton and she says it's been awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 32 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: just need to lift that out a bit and move it up the coast before it gets kicked out.. 6 days out anything can happen and its close enough where we track not a "close call" or scrape on any operational model, nevermind a direct hit. Inside D7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 34 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: just need to lift that out a bit and move it up the coast before it gets kicked out.. 6 days out anything can happen and its close enough where we track you said "it wouldn't take much" It would take a lot for that - that should be a clue to the extreme unlikeliness without even touching theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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