Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Cyclone-68]

Yup history pretty much slams the door in this being a threat to us. Hopefully we can summon some home grown which would make things slightly easier 

[ineedsnow]

Wow! 

[ineedsnow]

[ineedsnow]

Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much

Its really close

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its really close

 

[ineedsnow]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Its really close

Big shift west hopefully the better models do also

[ineedsnow]

[WxWatcher007]

9 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Yup history pretty much slams the door in this being a threat to us. Hopefully we can summon some home grown which would make things slightly easier 

I don't think people realize how hard it is to get true CVs this way. Not just here in New England, but the entire U.S. coastline.  

I went back the other day and ran some numbers.

Since the start of our exceptionally busy period of Atlantic activity in 2017, there have been 157 named storms in the basin. Only 19, or 12% of those systems, have been CVs--which I defined as developing within about 5 degrees of the Cabo Verde Islands. 

Of those 19 CVs, only 3 (16%) have impacted land. Irma in 2017, Florence in 2018, and Larry in 2021. Now, to the point that some have made, Florence and Larry were infamously locks to go OTS before they weren't, but statistically that's rare. 

CVs that made landfall accounts for just 1.9% of all the storms that developed in the 2017-25 period. 

It takes an extraordinary set of circumstances for CVs to hit the US.

[SouthCoastMA]

38 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much

It would, though. 

[Dan76]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

gets it to 914 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

6 minutes ago, Dan76 said:

gets it to 914 

Yeah that will rearrange some beaches, even without a landfall. I wonder if the models are keying in on some baroclinic fourcing. Wind field really expands so that would be the only way to maintain such ridiculously low pressures. (Obviously over modeled) Anything sub 940 north of 30 would be unprecedented in the modern era. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much

With that HP there?

[WxWatcher007]

20 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah that will rearrange some beaches, even without a landfall. I wonder if the models are keying in on some baroclinic fourcing. Wind field really expands so that would be the only way to maintain such ridiculously low pressures. (Obviously over modeled) Anything sub 940 north of 30 would be unprecedented in the modern era. 

Except Fiona!

What a great chase that was.  

[Hazey]

I'm always fond of TC's that make hairpin turns. We'll see if Erin does as advertised. I'm hoping it can get close enough to give us some rain. Desperately dry up here.  

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, Hazey said:

I'm always fond of TC's that make hairpin turns. We'll see if Erin does as advertised. I'm hoping it can get close enough to give us some rain. Desperately dry up here.  

Looks like you're in the same boat as us, but Newfoundland is still close. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

Going to be east on the ICON but that wouldn't take much

with this flow structure aloft? 

it would take more than God's will actually.  It's more apt to say ...what we are looking at is God's will NOT to bring this TC to New England.

This has been a stalwart consistent limitation for days and days and model run after model run, all but 100% ... all along, yet for some reason, some of you cannot seem to even see or sense the intuitive reason why it is impossible to bring a TC up to New England with polar jet drilling straight at the region.   It's like believing the fake news that it's possible for an ice cream cone to survive a fire hose I guess.  

We live in an era where scientific advice, let alone learning, are allowably suspended.  It's not your fault.