Cyclone-68 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago Hopefully I can retire in a couple of years because once I do I’ll be moving to the southeast somewhere. I’ll be damned if I’m going to go “hurricane-less” before I pass on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago I went thru Bob and Gloria growing up in Taunton. I was a freshman at UMiami in August of 92 when Andrew came through two days after I moved onto campus. I'll never forget that...Rode it out on the 2nd floor of one of the 8 story towers. They sent everyone home a few days later for about month. Nice way to begin my college career. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago @ChangeofSeasonsWX You are 29 and don't think you'll ever see a hurricane in New England? Maybe if you were in your 70s I'd be slightly concerned.Obviously, any of us could go at any time, but I'm just speaking to the norms of life expectancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 52 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: @ChangeofSeasonsWX You are 29 and don't think you'll ever see a hurricane in New England? Maybe if you were in your 70s I'd be slightly concerned.Obviously, any of us could go at any time, but I'm just speaking to the norms of life expectancy. New England weenies talk crazy in the tropical thread every year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diggiebot Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago 52 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: @ChangeofSeasonsWX You are 29 and don't think you'll ever see a hurricane in New England? Maybe if you were in your 70s I'd be slightly concerned.Obviously, any of us could go at any time, but I'm just speaking to the norms of life expectancy. It’ll happen when we least expect it! 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: New England weenies talk crazy in the tropical thread every year Yup. When it’s been this long without a strike people get snippy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: It’s gone. What a hard right from there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted 4 hours ago Share Posted 4 hours ago Just now, CoastalWx said: It’s gone. What a hard right from there. If we can get that to dig a bit more we're in business.. we watch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: If we can get that to dig a bit more we're in business.. we watch It’s gone. Why do you do this. Give back hours of your life. Spend it with family. Go for a walk. For the love of God. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s gone. Why do you do this. Give back hours of your life. Spend it with family. Go for a walk. For the love of God. Sage advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted 3 hours ago Share Posted 3 hours ago Which annual thread leads to the most disappointment, the Tropical thread or Wiz's severe thread? Asking for a friend. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Which annual thread leads to the most disappointment, the Tropical thread or Wiz's severe thread? Asking for a friend. Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 1 hour ago, ineedsnow said: If we can get that to dig a bit more we're in business.. we watch Having hope on something that could still have a chance is one thing, but it's like you're a mama gorilla holding onto her deceased baby who's not coming back. Let it go... While you have some dignity for the love of God! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChangeofSeasonsWX Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 11 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said: @ChangeofSeasonsWX You are 29 and don't think you'll ever see a hurricane in New England? Maybe if you were in your 70s I'd be slightly concerned.Obviously, any of us could go at any time, but I'm just speaking to the norms of life expectancy. I mean statistically it's random. Could get one later this year or could be another 50 years. I'm not saying that it's the most likely scenario but it is within the range of possibilities. I asked AI to calculate the probability that there is no landfall between the years 1991 and 2075 and it said 2.6% likelihood or about 1 in 40 chance. Which is high enough to be a valid possibility, albeit not super likely. Odds of no landfall between 1991 and 2033 is 15% chance. This calculation is based off of a historical average of one landfall every 23 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Is there any indicator down the line that the weather pattern will change enough to at least allow the potential? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page Small sample size...look back long term and winter is clearly the path of least regret for weather enthusiasts in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: It’s gone. Why do you do this. Give back hours of your life. Spend it with family. Go for a walk. For the love of God. This one has never been much of a US threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Is there any indicator down the line that the weather pattern will change enough to at least allow the potential? None. It's done, over, caput, zero chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Yeah RIP Erin. If Erin starts to organize and try to strengthening its just going to begin ingesting this air deeper into the circulation. Not too mention Erin is still hauling westwards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: None. It's done, over, caput, zero chance. Well I was speaking more about threats down the line. Not really the current one which everyone has abandoned.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said: Well I was speaking more about threats down the line. Not really the current one which everyone has abandoned.. I don't think the long range pattern looks to become one that would favor any potential concern (at least for our region and probably from like the Carolina's north). But this is looking through the end of the month. As we get closer to September and into September there is always potential for a wild card contributor which can quickly reshape the pattern. Anyways, behind Erin the Atlantic looks extremely quiet. I think @WxWatcher007mentioned this a few days ago but the background state looks to becoming more favorable but we may not really see much in the way of development until probably moving through the first week of September. We will have to watch for some home grown with tendency for stalled fronts off the southeast coast but the pattern may also favor alot of dry air towards the coast along with strong wind shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted 24 minutes ago Share Posted 24 minutes ago 1 hour ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said: I mean statistically it's random. Could get one later this year or could be another 50 years. I'm not saying that it's the most likely scenario but it is within the range of possibilities. I asked AI to calculate the probability that there is no landfall between the years 1991 and 2075 and it said 2.6% likelihood or about 1 in 40 chance. Which is high enough to be a valid possibility, albeit not super likely. Odds of no landfall between 1991 and 2033 is 15% chance. This calculation is based off of a historical average of one landfall every 23 years. You bring new meaning to "glass half empty". In this newer climate, not really worried about getting a hurricane up here in the next several years, at least with respect to the higher SST's, and we are overdue climatalogically. I'm not sure what impact the faster/compressed flow has on those chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 17 minutes ago Share Posted 17 minutes ago Not over yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted 15 minutes ago Share Posted 15 minutes ago If Erin strengthens then she fishes. If she doesn't strengthen, then she gulfs. She has no path to SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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