Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Cyclone-68]

Hopefully I can retire in a couple of years because once I do I’ll be moving to the southeast somewhere. I’ll be damned if I’m going to go “hurricane-less” before I pass on 

[butterfish55]

I went thru Bob and Gloria growing up in Taunton. I was a freshman at UMiami in August of 92 when Andrew came through two days after I moved onto campus. I'll never forget that...Rode it out on the 2nd floor of one of the 8 story towers. They sent everyone home a few days later for about month. Nice way to begin my college career.

[SouthCoastMA]

@ChangeofSeasonsWX You are 29 and don't think you'll ever see a hurricane in New England? Maybe if you were in your 70s I'd be slightly concerned.Obviously, any of us could go at any time, but I'm just speaking to the norms of life expectancy. 

[WxWatcher007]

52 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

@ChangeofSeasonsWX You are 29 and don't think you'll ever see a hurricane in New England? Maybe if you were in your 70s I'd be slightly concerned.Obviously, any of us could go at any time, but I'm just speaking to the norms of life expectancy. 

New England weenies talk crazy in the tropical thread every year  

[Diggiebot]

52 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

@ChangeofSeasonsWX You are 29 and don't think you'll ever see a hurricane in New England? Maybe if you were in your 70s I'd be slightly concerned.Obviously, any of us could go at any time, but I'm just speaking to the norms of life expectancy. 

It’ll happen when we least expect it!

 

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

New England weenies talk crazy in the tropical thread every year  

Yup. When it’s been this long without a strike people get snippy. 

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

It’s gone. What a hard right from there.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s gone. What a hard right from there.

If we can get that to dig a bit more we're in business.. we watch

[CoastalWx]

36 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

If we can get that to dig a bit more we're in business.. we watch

It’s gone. Why do you do this. Give back hours of your life. Spend it with family. Go for a walk. For the love of God.

[mahk_webstah]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s gone. Why do you do this. Give back hours of your life. Spend it with family. Go for a walk. For the love of God.

Sage advice 

[Baroclinic Zone]

[moneypitmike]

Which annual thread leads to the most disappointment, the Tropical thread or Wiz's severe thread?

Asking for a friend.

[WxWatcher007]

27 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Which annual thread leads to the most disappointment, the Tropical thread or Wiz's severe thread?

Asking for a friend.

Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

If we can get that to dig a bit more we're in business.. we watch

Having hope on something that could still have a chance is one thing, but it's like you're a mama gorilla holding onto her deceased baby who's not coming back. Let it go... While you have some dignity for the love of God!

[ChangeofSeasonsWX]

11 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

@ChangeofSeasonsWX You are 29 and don't think you'll ever see a hurricane in New England? Maybe if you were in your 70s I'd be slightly concerned.Obviously, any of us could go at any time, but I'm just speaking to the norms of life expectancy. 

I mean statistically it's random. Could get one later this year or could be another 50 years. I'm not saying that it's the most likely scenario but it is within the range of possibilities. I asked AI to calculate the probability that there is no landfall between the years 1991 and 2075 and it said 2.6% likelihood or about 1 in 40 chance. Which is high enough to be a valid possibility, albeit not super likely. Odds of no landfall between 1991 and 2033 is 15% chance. This calculation is based off of a historical average of one landfall every 23 years.

[Cyclone-68]

Is there any indicator down the line that the weather pattern will change enough to at least allow the potential?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Why pick a thread when there’s a whole page

Small sample size...look back long term and winter is clearly the path of least regret for weather enthusiasts in these parts.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s gone. Why do you do this. Give back hours of your life. Spend it with family. Go for a walk. For the love of God.

This one has never been much of a US threat.

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Is there any indicator down the line that the weather pattern will change enough to at least allow the potential?

None.

It's done, over, caput, zero chance. 

[weatherwiz]

Yeah RIP Erin.

If Erin starts to organize and try to strengthening its just going to begin ingesting this air deeper into the circulation. Not too mention Erin is still hauling westwards

[Cyclone-68]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

None.

It's done, over, caput, zero chance. 

Well I was speaking more about threats down the line. Not really the current one which everyone has abandoned..

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

Well I was speaking more about threats down the line. Not really the current one which everyone has abandoned..

I don't think the long range pattern looks to become one that would favor any potential concern (at least for our region and probably from like the Carolina's north). But this is looking through the end of the month. As we get closer to September and into September there is always potential for a wild card contributor which can quickly reshape the pattern. 

Anyways, behind Erin the Atlantic looks extremely quiet. I think @WxWatcher007mentioned this a few days ago but the background state looks to becoming more favorable but we may not really see much in the way of development until probably moving through the first week of September. We will have to watch for some home grown with tendency for stalled fronts off the southeast coast but the pattern may also favor alot of dry air towards the coast along with strong wind shear. 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 hour ago, ChangeofSeasonsWX said:

I mean statistically it's random. Could get one later this year or could be another 50 years. I'm not saying that it's the most likely scenario but it is within the range of possibilities. I asked AI to calculate the probability that there is no landfall between the years 1991 and 2075 and it said 2.6% likelihood or about 1 in 40 chance. Which is high enough to be a valid possibility, albeit not super likely. Odds of no landfall between 1991 and 2033 is 15% chance. This calculation is based off of a historical average of one landfall every 23 years.

You bring new meaning to "glass half empty". In this newer climate, not really worried about getting a hurricane up here in the next several years, at least with respect to the higher SST's, and we are overdue climatalogically. I'm not sure what impact the faster/compressed flow has on those chances. 

 

 

 

[MJO812]

Not over yet

 

[Chrisrotary12]

If Erin strengthens then she fishes. If she doesn't strengthen, then she gulfs. She has no path to SNE.

[MJO812]

[weatherwiz]

lol

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Small sample size...look back long term and winter is clearly the path of least regret for weather enthusiasts in these parts.

I know that’s true…but my production the last decade makes it harder than ever to discern. I checked this morning and I have more sub 20” seasons than I do 30” seasons since 2018-19, and my average is 45-50”. I certainly have more failed epic winter patterns than failed fantasy canes. It’s exceptionally tough sledding for anything interesting lately. Tropical stuff aside I think most of us are frustrated by that. 

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

I don't think the long range pattern looks to become one that would favor any potential concern (at least for our region and probably from like the Carolina's north). But this is looking through the end of the month. As we get closer to September and into September there is always potential for a wild card contributor which can quickly reshape the pattern. 

Anyways, behind Erin the Atlantic looks extremely quiet. I think @WxWatcher007mentioned this a few days ago but the background state looks to becoming more favorable but we may not really see much in the way of development until probably moving through the first week of September. We will have to watch for some home grown with tendency for stalled fronts off the southeast coast but the pattern may also favor alot of dry air towards the coast along with strong wind shear. 

I have my annual peak season forecast due by the 20th, and I’m still not sure what direction I’ll take. I do think we’re looking at another backloaded season though given the continued SAL/stability issues I knew we’d have months ago.

If September is warm with a WAR, we’re in the game. Otherwise, cutoff trough season in October and hybrids are probably our only shot at anything interesting. 

[SouthCoastMA]

"Area to Monitor" thrown in there to get a few extra clicks.

Love how it's placed on the Northeast..instead of Florida or the Gulf, which have more of a need to "monitor"

 

[jbenedet]

Not exactly... It's still a long shot but.... 

 

What you do need is for the longwave trough in eastern Canada to weaken...That's the "block" as it pertains to all of the east coast...

 

On the euro AI all trends are in the right direction...weaker trough in eastern canada, stronger western atlantic ridge, and deeper shortwave over the Midwest.