August 2025 Summer Thread

[ineedsnow]

Some nice looking members on the EPS 

[512high]

Gosh, maybe one of those will visit! We are do.....

[kdxken]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Some nice looking members on the EPS 

Cue the creepy DIT comment.

[CoastalWx]

My oh my, are we looking hot next week.

[OceanStWx]

11 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Just like any organization the reorganization hurts. Cutting fat off the bone is not easy 

Glad to know you feel that way. 

The probationary employees that were let go were not the fat in the organization. I know them, I had friends lose their jobs. I frankly find it offensive. That ho hum attitude about it all is definitely what is causing people to continue quitting government service in NOAA/NWS.

[Damage In Tolland]

What has been causing all that convection and heavy rain for Hippy and NW MA? That wasn’t really modeled so widespread 

[mreaves]

7 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Glad to know you feel that way. 

The probationary employees that were let go were not the fat in the organization. I know them, I had friends lose their jobs. I frankly find it offensive. That ho hum attitude about it all is definitely what is causing people to continue quitting government service in NOAA/NWS.

I'll just point out that I don't think that is what he thought when his job was eliminated at the museum in Connecticut.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What has been causing all that convection and heavy rain for Hippy and NW MA? That wasn’t really modeled so widespread 

Someone (Wiz?) mentioned to look out for some scattered stuff.  

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Surprise drink this morning, picked up about .10”

[Ginx snewx]

18 minutes ago, mreaves said:

I'll just point out that I don't think that is what he thought when his job was eliminated at the museum in Connecticut.

Excuse me? Cutting fat off the bone sometimes takes good meat too. When that happens you reevaluate and rehire to refill the meat. My situation was purely financial.  I accepted it. Our government was a cash cow for many.  Sometimes good people get caught up in fiscal decisions.  Glad they rectified. The 100 probies let go all have been offered their jobs back or already rehired. So glad all that millions and millions of DEI grift is over though.  

[Typhoon Tip]

That was toasty looking 00Z GFS run.  At least aloft...  Not sure what the surface shenanigans are up to in that run, but from D6 to something like D12 there's an impressive eastern mid latitude height layout.  Almost looks and behaves like a resonant feed-back scenario, too - something that I'd all but given up on.  Incapable of happening over eastern N/A mid latitudes.

Ensembles products:   In simple terms they are all implying  a trough in the west, ridge in the east from ~D5+.   That's the general take away.

Little longer version:  The numerical teleconnectors have gotten hotter, regardless of the operational GFS' romance with the idea.  So at present there is a warm signal in ensemble-derived modes.  I had commented recently that the numbers were more nominal looking.  Thru yesterday that was true, but this has changed since.   You almost wonder if that should have been expected ... I remember commenting to Scott a week ago that there was a recurring theme to lower/correct Pacific NW heights downward. Eventually, the numbers will tend to align with the spatial synoptic behavior.   We've since passed through a +PNA, perhaps temporarily offsetting that.. but putting that mode behind, it seems the previous tendency is reappearing now. 

My guess is that the ACATT would rather that stops doing that by November, and not return until next spring, but cross that bridge I guess.  lol

CPC's PNA source is still -D(pna) but it only descends to neutral.  Other sources have it going to -2 SD - which is strange, because the PNA is so huge as a physical domain space, that it's not trivial having that entire index be either.  So something is a bit off there... But they all agree on a -EPO during the onset of the -D(PNA) regardless of magnitude.   That combination at this time of year is still a heat signal over eastern mid latitude continent. 

Whatever comes up ... it's likely the last bid for multi-day 90+

  

[HoarfrostHubb]

The much shorter version:

pool/beach time 

[Brewbeer]

35 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Our government is a cash cow for many. 

primarily the current Morons that Are Governing America

[Typhoon Tip]

Just musing over the 2-meter temp products from Pivotal ...  wow.    No shit!    The GFS has something like a 8 consecutive days in the low and mid 90s, with a couple of them tickling a hundred. 

The Euro has a trough bullying across southern Canada ~ 210 or so hours..  mm, not impossible, but the ensembles are less emphatic with that idea.  Despite that potential interruption ( which obviously subject to change at this range anyway ), the model still has multiple days of 90+, even sending 100 this next Wednesday. 

It may be that what is in store is the greatest heat of the season by virtue of length.   That big heat near the tale end of June was short and of course very sweet.   The one at the end of July, with record highs at multiple climo sites around S and C NE, was also not exceptionally long.  But this looks in the models like the scalars might be 2-3 less, but lasting for a long time.   It would win out in bulk....

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

primarily the current Morons that Are Governing America

Yea it’s not the DEI, the illegals, the gays, or the welfare peeps…it’s the socialism for the big corps that steal trillions from taxpayers. Once the majority of Americans come to terms it is not a left vs right but a bottom vs top…we can finally get shit right here. Until then, they will continue to pin neighbors against each other while they collect more and more and more. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

51 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Excuse me? Cutting fat off the bone sometimes takes good meat too. When that happens you reevaluate and rehire to refill the meat. My situation was purely financial.  I accepted it. Our government was a cash cow for many.  Sometimes good people get caught up in fiscal decisions.  Glad they rectified. The 100 probies let go all have been offered their jobs back or already rehired. So glad all that millions and millions of DEI grift is over though.  

That’s such a terrible opinion, I actually feel bad for you.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What has been causing all that convection and heavy rain for Hippy and NW MA? That wasn’t really modeled so widespread 

One thing to keep in mind when dealing with these setups which can favor orographic development is the scale of the convection. You need very high resolution models to truly resolve this degree of convection. This is why if you were looking at the GFS (even the 12km or 32km NAM) they showed also little, if any QPF. The HRRR did better at picking up as did the 3km NAM but sometimes with this stuff its just a matter of not having models with high enough resolution to really resolve the potential. I also think some of the activity ended up a bit more widespread just due to extra upward motion from ongoing thunderstorms.

[Superstorm]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Yea it’s not the DEI, the illegals, the gays, or the welfare peeps…it’s the socialism for the big corps that steal trillions from taxpayers. Once the majority of Americans come to terms it is not a left vs right but a bottom vs top…we can finally get shit right here. Until then, they will continue to pin neighbors against each other while they collect more and more and more. 

I have been saying this for years, but people seem to just want to gravitate towards left verses right.  I believe media keeps us in this continued murk to deceive the masses.

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

The much shorter version:

pool/beach time 

Let's go!

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

My oh my, are we looking hot next week.

Or, I could have just typed this    hahaha

[Go Kart Mozart]

Moderators, please get the political crap out of here.

[Damage In Tolland]

Still smoky here today but not on the ground. More aloft 

[weatherwiz]

54 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That was toasty looking 00Z GFS run.  At least aloft...  Not sure what the surface shenanigans are up to in that run, but from D6 to something like D12 there's an impressive eastern mid latitude height layout.  Almost looks and behaves like a resonant feed-back scenario, too - something that I'd all but given up on.  Incapable of happening over eastern N/A mid latitudes.

Ensembles products:   In simple terms they are all implying  a trough in the west, ridge in the east from ~D5+.   That's the general take away.

Little longer version:  The numerical teleconnectors have gotten hotter, regardless of the operational GFS' romance with the idea.  So at present there is a warm signal in ensemble-derived modes.  I had commented recently that the numbers were more nominal looking.  Thru yesterday that was true, but this has changed since.   You almost wonder if that should have been expected ... I remember commenting to Scott a week ago that there was a recurring theme to lower/correct Pacific NW heights downward. Eventually, the numbers will tend to align with the spatial synoptic behavior.   We've since passed through a +PNA, perhaps temporarily offsetting that.. but putting that mode behind, it seems the previous tendency is reappearing now. 

My guess is that the ACATT would rather that stops doing that by November, and not return until next spring, but cross that bridge I guess.  lol

CPC's PNA source is still -D(pna) but it only descends to neutral.  Other sources have it going to -2 SD - which is strange, because the PNA is so huge as a physical domain space, that it's not trivial having that entire index be either.  So something is a bit off there... But they all agree on a -EPO during the onset of the -D(PNA) regardless of magnitude.   That combination at this time of year is still a heat signal over eastern mid latitude continent. 

Whatever comes up ... it's likely the last bid for multi-day 90+

  

Maybe we can build this into early September and get another Labor Day '98 Derecho...but farther south. That one went across NNE right? That wasn't the one where there was the derecho NNE and then through NYC? my memory is fading in my elevated age 

[Ginx snewx]

6 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Moderators, please get the political crap out of here.

Need to check the weather chart to see if it's safe to go outside? Next week maybe not looks brutal 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Need to check the weather chart to see if it's safe to go outside? Next week maybe not looks brutal 

Looks like great outside weather to me! 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Looks like great outside weather to me! 

Like Davy who is still in the Navy  said" pool beach time"