Winter cancelled/uncancelled banter 25/26

[LawdogGRNJ]

Prediction you can bank on:  Grocery store, shelf clearing, mania will be in full gear by Thursday. 

[Brian5671]

7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

How did we go from suppressed to mixing in 12 hours? Lol

Happens all the time.   

[mob1]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Happens all the time.   

Yesterday someone said that it could end up coming too far north and he was mocked mercilessly. 

This whole "the block is too strong" or "there's no way it can cut with that arctic high" is stupid, because when the models trend in an unfavorable direction the rest of it obviously also changed. 

 

Weather is always transient, and never assume anything is impossible. I can think of a million examples of storms that started oht with suppression being the only risk, only to end up raining to Albany. 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Yesterday someone said that it could end up coming too far north and he was mocked mercilessly. 

This whole "the block is too strong" or "there's no way it can cut with that arctic high" is stupid, because when the models trend in an unfavorable direction the rest of it obviously also changed. 

 

Weather is always transient, and never assume anything is impossible. I can think of a million examples of storms that started oht with suppression being the only risk, only to end up raining to Albany. 

Too many people speaking in absolutes too many days out...5 days out ANYTHING is on the table

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too many people speaking in absolutes too many days out...5 days out ANYTHING is on the table

Yeah I mean if the high weakens or moves too far east the whole setup changes. I feel like we still have 36 hours before we can really lock in a solution

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I mean if the high weakens or moves too far east the whole setup changes. I feel like we still have 36 hours before we can really lock in a solution

Wouldn't surprise me to see the north ticks continue.     

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wouldn't surprise me to see the north ticks continue.     

There is a limit with the blocking. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too many people speaking in absolutes too many days out...5 days out ANYTHING is on the table

It's four days now with an early Sunday am start time. 

[North and West]

How did we go from suppressed to mixing in 12 hours? Lol

.

[forkyfork]

sure let's post 276 hour gfs kuchera maps i'm dumping my bacon grease can down the drain after posting this

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Wouldn't surprise me to see the north ticks continue.     

They can but the initial wall of snow is very likely...unless models suddenly flip to suppressed again 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anyone know of a application on the ios that I can use to create a snowfall map?

[NorthShoreWx]

January 21 (today) is on average (since 1/1/1996) the coldest day of the year in Smithtown.  The actual unsmoothed average of the prior thirty years on January 21 is 26.9° F (min 20.0, max 33.8).  A simplistic smoothing of the data (not cubic spline) results in a normal for the date of 29.3° (min 21.8, max 36.8).

Interestingly, today's weather is going to bring that average down a little.  It likes to be cold at this time of year.

Tomorrow is similar, but the warming trend in the averages after that is noticeable. 

[IrishRob17]

33 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone know of a application on the ios that I can use to create a snowfall map?

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/crayon-style/id629860673

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/crayon-style/id629860673

got it thank you

[WeatherGeek2025]

My Snow Map.

[snywx]

8 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

My Snow Map.

Feen is back at it 

[WeatherGeek2025]

43 minutes ago, snywx said:

Feen is back at it 

hope it works out

[Tar Heel Snow]

Congrats Quebec City 

[Santa Claus]

On 1/20/2026 at 9:16 AM, Santa Claus said:

it is not snowing next weekend

uh ohhhh!

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Santa Claus said:

uh ohhhh!

next it's going to be congrats north pole

[Snowlover11]

i wouldn’t lie the north trend seems to be hauling ass. It needs to stop soon if you we want a “biggy”

[WeatherGeek2025]

9 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

i wouldn’t lie the north trend seems to be hauling ass. It needs to stop soon if you we want a “biggy”

yeah im

scared a little but hoping gfs and euro ai hold serve i'd be happy with it

[Nibor]

I'd like to make a formal apology to @WeatherGeek2025 I meant my posts in good fun but I seemingly struck a chord. The man is passionate as we all are.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Assuming things stay on track of course, if the Bills won last weekend, we could have witnessed an epic AFC Championship at Foxboro this Sunday in the snow.  I suppose nowadays they probably would have moved or postponed it though.

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Nibor said:

I'd like to make a formal apology to @WeatherGeek2025 I meant my posts in good fun but I seemingly struck a cord. The man is passionate as we all are.

it's ok brother thank you

[Prue11]

2 hours ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

Assuming things stay on track of course, if the Bills won last weekend, we could have witnessed an epic AFC Championship at Foxboro this Sunday in the snow.  I suppose nowadays they probably would have moved or postponed it though.

Yeah the NFL got soft. They postponed the steelers at bills playoff game a few years ago due to heavy snow 

[coastalplainsnowman]

It’s odd yet funny to see the models increasingly go mainstream. Listening to sports talk radio this morning and they’re saying the European model says this, the North American model says that, how about the GFS etc. 

[North and West]

It’s odd yet funny to see the models increasingly go mainstream. Listening to sports talk radio this morning and they’re saying the European model says this, the North American model says that, how about the GFS etc. 

nerds


.

[Cfa]

Winter better be over after next week.