Winter cancelled/uncancelled banter 25/26

[LawdogGRNJ]

Prediction you can bank on:  Grocery store, shelf clearing, mania will be in full gear by Thursday. 

[Brian5671]

7 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

How did we go from suppressed to mixing in 12 hours? Lol

Happens all the time.   

[mob1]

4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Happens all the time.   

Yesterday someone said that it could end up coming too far north and he was mocked mercilessly. 

This whole "the block is too strong" or "there's no way it can cut with that arctic high" is stupid, because when the models trend in an unfavorable direction the rest of it obviously also changed. 

 

Weather is always transient, and never assume anything is impossible. I can think of a million examples of storms that started oht with suppression being the only risk, only to end up raining to Albany. 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Yesterday someone said that it could end up coming too far north and he was mocked mercilessly. 

This whole "the block is too strong" or "there's no way it can cut with that arctic high" is stupid, because when the models trend in an unfavorable direction the rest of it obviously also changed. 

 

Weather is always transient, and never assume anything is impossible. I can think of a million examples of storms that started oht with suppression being the only risk, only to end up raining to Albany. 

Too many people speaking in absolutes too many days out...5 days out ANYTHING is on the table

[Stormlover74]

24 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too many people speaking in absolutes too many days out...5 days out ANYTHING is on the table

Yeah I mean if the high weakens or moves too far east the whole setup changes. I feel like we still have 36 hours before we can really lock in a solution

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Yeah I mean if the high weakens or moves too far east the whole setup changes. I feel like we still have 36 hours before we can really lock in a solution

Wouldn't surprise me to see the north ticks continue.     

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Wouldn't surprise me to see the north ticks continue.     

There is a limit with the blocking. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

52 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Too many people speaking in absolutes too many days out...5 days out ANYTHING is on the table

It's four days now with an early Sunday am start time. 

[North and West]

How did we go from suppressed to mixing in 12 hours? Lol

.

[forkyfork]

sure let's post 276 hour gfs kuchera maps i'm dumping my bacon grease can down the drain after posting this

[SnoSki14]

3 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

Wouldn't surprise me to see the north ticks continue.     

They can but the initial wall of snow is very likely...unless models suddenly flip to suppressed again 

[WeatherGeek2025]

anyone know of a application on the ios that I can use to create a snowfall map?

[NorthShoreWx]

January 21 (today) is on average (since 1/1/1996) the coldest day of the year in Smithtown.  The actual unsmoothed average of the prior thirty years on January 21 is 26.9° F (min 20.0, max 33.8).  A simplistic smoothing of the data (not cubic spline) results in a normal for the date of 29.3° (min 21.8, max 36.8).

Interestingly, today's weather is going to bring that average down a little.  It likes to be cold at this time of year.

Tomorrow is similar, but the warming trend in the averages after that is noticeable. 

[IrishRob17]

33 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

anyone know of a application on the ios that I can use to create a snowfall map?

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/crayon-style/id629860673

[WeatherGeek2025]

4 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

https://apps.apple.com/us/app/crayon-style/id629860673

got it thank you

[WeatherGeek2025]

My Snow Map.